Hey, what do you know, I finally had a good week. I whiffed badly on Baltimore sticking with Houston, but got the rest of my games correct for a 3-1 mark. That takes me to a 10-18 record for the season AND it pulls me within a game of Tony, who has struggled less than me most of the year.

But last week was a disaster for my brother as he reeled off an 0-fer-four, dropping to 11-17 for the 2012 campaign.

Hopefully this is the sign of a turnaround for me. I’ve got a weekend in Vegas planned and I’d like to not go broke betting on the gridiron for real. Here’s hoping it continues: Here are the picks for week eight.

Andy

Chicago (-7) vs Carolina – Statistically these teams are similar offensively in terms of yards per game, but it feels like these two are going in opposite directions. Chicago has won four in a row and is scoring 27 points per game. The Panthers have lost four in a row, are averaging 17 points per game and are playing so poorly that Cam Newton really sounded Sunday as though he is questioning himself and his team. The Bears are tops in the league against the run and if Charles Tillman plays half as well against Steve Smith as he did against Calvin Johnson on Monday night, Chicago won’t have a hard time beating this spread.

New Orleans at Denver: Over 55.5 – Last year the Broncos defense kept the team in games while Tim Tebow struggled for three quarters so the former overhyped Denver quarterback could pull out a dramatic, come-from-behind win. This year the offense is better, but Denver can be scored on. They’ve given up 24 or more in four of six games. New Orleans’ defense is terrible. The Broncos will win, but this should be a classic offensive showdown between Drew Brees and Peyton Manning.

Seattle (+2) at Detroit – The Lions were stymied offensively yet again last week, this time by the Bears on Monday night. Seattle statistically has a better pass defense than Chicago does this week and their personnel will allow them to play the same style of defense that teams have been deploying against Calvin Johnson all season. The Lions also are defending the pass well this year, but they’re middle of the pack in yards allowed on the ground. Marshawn Lynch helps Seattle ground this one out. Until proven otherwise, Detroit is merely a bad team – one of the biggest underachievers of the season thus far. Seattle is the opposite, winning games it shouldn’t while starting a rookie quarterback.

Upset of the week: Tampa Bay (+250) at Minnesota – The Vikings are enjoying a surprisingly successful first half of the season and they are at home. The problem is the Bucs are one of the league’s best run-stopping defenses so far. They’re giving up 323 yards per game passing, but the Vikings have struggled dramatically passing the ball. If Christian Ponder can find his touch and open things up for the run, I’ll be wrong on this one. But I think he continues to struggle, which will let Tampa focus on stopping Adrian Peterson. If they do, this will be a low-scoring game with Tampa doing just enough to pull off a halfway dramatic upset.

(Honorable mention: Jacksonville (+800) at Green Bay – No, I don’t really expect the Jaguars to stun the Pack. But nobody in the NFL should be +800 on anyone. If this line hasn’t changed by the time I hit Sin City, I will probably put a few bucks on Blaine Gabbert and the gang, just to keep it fun.

Tony

Oakland (+1) at Kansas City – Are you really going to bet on a team led by Brady Quinn?

St. Louis (+6.5) vs. New England (London) – These London games are often a crapshoot—who travels extreme distances better, who deals with the sometimes terrible weather better, etc. Curious to see who the fans support more as well—if they go on recent records, they will go New England, but if they realize that the Patriots identity is a celebration of us kicking their *** a couple hundred years ago, the Patriots could face a hostile crowd. I still think the Patriots win, but it will be close.

Atlanta at Philadelphia: Over 46 – We know the Falcons will score points. Since I am picking them to also lose, logic would dictate that it will be over 46. Then again, this is the same logic that has led to this dreadful season of betting picks.

Upset of the Week: Seattle (+115) over Detroit – While I’m tempted to do something that would I’m sure draw another text from regular commenter Sir Whoopass and pick an upset that I didn’t take in our straight picks (it’s all about playing the odds), I’ll stick with the relatively unsexy Seahawks over the Lions pick at a low return. The only other upsets that I even picked were Oakland (+110) and Tampa (+235), which is less about my thinking Tampa will win and more about my superstitions about picking the home team.

To see our straight-up picks for the week, click this link.