It’s a good thing we have this website to earn a living, and aren’t relying on profits from our gambling on NFL games—we both struggled to another 1-3 week, with Andy hitting San Diego (-4), and myself hitting my super weak upset Cincinnati on the money line.

Week 6 best bets (to go the other way on):

Andy:

Buffalo (+3) over New York Giants – Buffalo is playing balanced football. The Giants lost to Seattle last week. I don’t know if the Bills are for real or not but based on what’s happened through five weeks this pointspread should be -3 rather than +3. I also like under 50, for what it’s worth.

Carolina (+4) over Atlanta – The Falcons are desperate and they might win this game. But Cam Newton is rolling. And he’s not going to be scared to go to the Georgia Dome and let it fly. This will be another tight game. Whoever wins I don’t think will do so by more than a field goal.

Dallas @ New England: Under 55 – That’s an awfully high number. New England looked like it was learning how to play defense last week against the Jets. And I don’t trust Dallas to score that much. I’m going with the under.

Upset of the week: San Francisco (+5.5, +220 moneyline) vs Detroit – This is not a knock against the Lions. They look great so far. But they’re not a completely polished team yet. They need help on the offensive line and in the defensive backfield. And they aren’t used to playing in big games or coming back the Sunday following a big emotional win on Monday night. And they’re vulnerable in the sense that while they played a complete game against Chicago, they had to come back from 20-plus point deficits the two previous weeks. I’m a huge fan of the direction Detroit is heading but this week’s game against San Francisco strikes me as a trap game for them. We’ll get a really good sense for whether the 49ers are for real from this game. I am starting to think they are.

Tony:

Jacksonville (+12.5) @ Pittsburgh – Yes, the Steelers blew up for 38 against the Titans, and the Titans are a better team than the Jaguars.  But I’m not sure I trust Big Ben to blow up two games in a row like that, and I’m not sure that the Steelers rushing game will be strong enough for a two TD win.

Indianapolis (+7) @ Cincinnati – Another game where I think the favorite will win, but not cover—Curtis Painter has the Colts finally moving the ball a little bit, and they have kept their last three games within at least a touchdown.

Cleveland @ Oakland: Over 44.5 – Sometimes when I get in a funk at the sports book, I look for the bets that make no sense to me and make them—sometimes even in parlays.  A few years back after an 0-fer college football betting day, I hit three of the crazy parlays I threw out there, highlighted by a Raiders/Vikings tilt that should have finished about 10-7 hitting the over in the first half.  This is another one of those matchups—I’m not sure I see any logical way that Oakland and Cleveland should combine for 45 points—so logically, they will.

Upset of the Week: Buffalo (+3, +165 money line) @ NY Giants – Just realized, this is the only underdog I picked to win outright this week.  The Giants knocked me out of two survivor pools last week—I didn’t want to pick them, because of Eli Manning, but I had picked myself into a corner—and Eli lived up to my expectation.  As much as Buffalo is surprising me this year, I finally believe—which might be a good reason to stay away from this one altogether.  But what the hell, it’s Vegas, right?