After the dreadful start we had to our betting season, I didn’t think our picks could get much uglier. We seemed to be on a bit of a roll heading into week 14, but last week everything went wrong.

Andy went 1-3, dropping his season record to 25-30-1. Tony did even worse, not connecting once, even picking Arizona to upset Seattle in a game the Cardinals ultimately lost 58-0.

It may be merciful that there are only three weeks left in the season. But we’re going to go down with a fight. On what is supposed to be the lucky day of 12/12/12, here goes for week 15.

Tony

Indianapolis (+9.5) at Houston – I’ve seen this game as low as 7.5, but even at that level I would probably take the Colts. I still think the Texans probably win the game, but they were exposed a bit on Monday night, and a blueprint for beating them now exists. The Colts have passed the point at which you could say they were purely playing inspired football due to Chuck Pagano’s illness—this is a much improved team, with something to prove.

Detroit (-6) at Arizona – Normally I wouldn’t take the Lions as a six point favorite over anyone, but I think the Cardinals have just plain quit. Despite Viking fan protests, the Cardinals QB situation is the worst in the NFL, and they have little help from their running game to keep them in games. But at least the defense only gave up 44 of the 58 total points allowed to the Seahawks last week—the same Seahawks team that the Cardinals beat earlier in the season.

Jacksonville at Miami: Over 37 – There is no logical reason this game should be over 37 total points. Hence the bet.

Upset of the Week: Buffalo (+200) over Seattle – Seattle is clearly the better team, but they’ve been getting a lot of hype lately, they historically have not played nearly as well on the road as at home (last week’s Cardinal drubbing notwithstanding), and they are the classic west coast team travelling east. I’ll take a +200 shot on the trap game.

Andy

Buffalo (+5.5) vs Seattle – Seattle is starting to look like a playoff team, but the Seahawks are much better at home than on the road. The Hawks are 2-5 on the road and none of those seven games have been decided by more than seven points. They are 4-1 against the spread in the last five, but with such a spotty record in road games, a 5.5 spread is pretty big. I think Seattle wins, but Buffalo keeps it within a field goal.

Cincinnati (-4.5) at Philadelphia – Philadelphia is 0-5-1 against the spread at home this season and before beating the spread in its last two games, both of which were on the road, the Eagles had lost six in a row against the number. Cincinnati, meanwhile, is a very solid 4-2 on the road this season, both straight up and against the spread. The Bengals have a lot to play for. Philadelphia doesn’t. Thursday night games have produced some strange results this season, but I’m thinking the Bengals have the motivation they need in this one to come out with an important win.

Detroit (-6) at Arizona – Seattle rushed for 284 yards and four touchdowns against Arizona last week. In its last two games, Arizona has 291 yards in TOTAL offense. The Cardinals haven’t scored 20 points since putting up 24 in week four and in the last nine games, they’ve been held to six or fewer points four times. I didn’t see much of it, but reportedly last week’s 58-0 loss wasn’t as close as the score indicated. These are signs that the team has quit. Detroit’s given up 27, 35, 34, 24 and 34 in its last five games, so there are points to be had here for the Cardinals, but my guess is they won’t get most of them. The Cardinals could decide not to embarrass themselves again, but I’m certainly not going to bet on it.

Upset of the week: Jacksonville Jaguars (+280) at Miami – Okay, this is a game that not many are going to care about. In fact, it’ll probably be a candidate for the “game of the weak” in our picks segment later this week. But it jumped out at me for this reason: What on earth has Miami done to warrant being a -340 against anyone? The Dolphins have lost five of six. The offense has scored 16 or fewer points in four of five. Jacksonville hasn’t fared much better, but they’ve been competitive enough since Chad Henne took over at quarterback where I’d take a chance on this game for that kind of return. The Jags last four games have included a six point loss to Houston, a five point win over Buffalo and a touchdown loss to the Jets – yes, a bad loss, but competitive enough where I’ll go out on a limb and say they’ve got a shot against a sinking ship.

To see our straight-up picks for week 15, click here.