Neither of us put any fear into the “betting experts” last year when we started doing our “Best Bets.” But we had a good time doing them. So we’re bringing them back for another year.

There’s not a whole lot of science that goes into our picks. We look things over, ponder what we know and have read, and try to find a couple pointspreads that look off. As I learn every time I try to bet against the spreads, those are hard to find. Vegas generally does an amazing job figuring out how these games are going to go.

Nonetheless, here are our thoughts on the best bets for the opening week of the 2012 NFL football season. Take these for what they’re worth – virtually nothing.

Andy

Buffalo (+3, +130 Moneyline) at New York Jets – This spread started out at six points but has moved toward Buffalo. The Jets’ offense looks abysmal to me. They have two mediocre quarterbacks, a mediocre starting running back, a starting wide receiver who got benched during the last game of the season and a bunch more unproven parts. Buffalo isn’t great, but they’ve got a decent defense that was supplemented by Mario Williams during the offseason. I think the Bills not only cover the spread, but take this one straight up as well.

Detroit (-7) vs St. Louis – This spread has actually moved toward the Rams. I like Jeff Fisher, but he’s a year away. There isn’t enough ammo for the Rams to keep this one closer than a touchdown. I would have been comfortable taking the Lions when the spread was 9.5. I’ll give the seven and not blink.

San Francisco at Green Bay: Over 45 – I love the 49ers’ defense and the Packers’ offense. This will be an interesting strength against strength matchup. I’m not sure who wins either. But when the Saints and 49ers matched up in the playoffs last year, these teams showed that offensive fireworks can happen. It’s not going to be a high scoring game, but I think it goes higher than a 24-21 final score.

Upset of the Week: Jacksonville (+4, +170 Moneyline) at Minnesota – There were a couple other games I looked at for this spot, but this is the underdog I feel most strongly about heading into week one. The Vikings’ defense got gashed repeatedly up the middle throughout the preseason. Rashad Jennings looks like he could do some gashing up the middle and he’ll be motivated to play well so he can retain a role in the offense now that Maurice Jones-Drew is back. Both of these teams will probably be a bit better than they were last year, but it looks to me like the Jaguars are improving faster than the Vikings.

Tony

Atlanta Falcons (-3) at Kansas City – The Chiefs only hope to keep this one close will be to grind it out with their rushing game, which may work—for a while. But I fully expect that Matt Ryan, Roddy White and Julio Jones will produce big numbers.

New England Patriots (-6) at Tennessee – The Titans look like they might be headed in the right direction, but they don’t look close enough to keep the Patriots within a touchdown. Expect Rob Gronkowski and Aaron Hernandez to pick up right where they left off in 2011.

Jacksonville Jaguars at Minnesota: Over 38 – We’re going to start early with my habit of picking things that just shouldn’t happen. On paper, this is about a 17-13 type of game that neither team appears to want (or deserve) to really win. That’s why logically I am picking the over—the same reason that if I were to guess, I would go under on New Orleans/Washington and San Francisco/Green Bay.

Upset of the week: Buffalo (+3) at New York Jets – The Bills have a solid defense, to go along with an offensive that looked above average when healthy last year. The Jets have an offense led by Mark Sanchez, who will likely have a short leash before being replaced by the upback from the punt team—neither of whom was actually able to put the Jets offense in the end zone in the preseason. Even on the road, I like the Bills to win this one outright.