We told you last week that we clearly didn’t know what we’re doing.  Clearly we were even more right than we knew—Andy went 1-3, while I go 4-0.  If you followed our advice and bet against us, I still managed to screw you.

Andy:

Washington @ Miami: Under 37.5 – My first bet would be on this being an absolutely terrible game to watch. My second bet is on the under. Before putting up 31 against Kansas City last week Miami hadn’t scored more than 17 points since a week one loss to New England. Washington has scored 11 points in its last two games and is averaging just a shade over 12 in its last five. I’ll put the final score on something around 11-7. Yuck.

Arizona (+14) vs Philadelphia – The Cardinals have only been blown out once this season. Though 2-6, four of those losses have been by 1, 3, 4 and 3 points, and those have included three road games and tilts against decent teams like Baltimore and the New York Giants. I don’t expect Arizona to win this game. The Eagles are better and their solid trio of corners should make it difficult for Larry Fitzgerald and company to have a big game. But Arizona is finding a way to be competitive, even in defeat and I think they’ll hang tough against a Philadelphia team coming off a tough Monday night defeat.

Pittsburgh (-3) @ Cincinnati – The Bengals are 6-2, but this includes wins against Cleveland, Jacksonville, Indianapolis and Seattle, teams combining for a 7-26 record. That’s not to say the record is completely illegitimate. I like what Andy Dalton and A.J. Green mean for Cincinnati’s present and future. But they’re up against a superior, veteran team coming off a tough division loss. I don’t think the Steelers will crush the Bengals, but I do think they’ll win comfortably.

Upset of the week: New York Giants (+3, +165 moneyline) over San Francisco – I salute Jim Harbaugh and his San Francisco staff for getting Alex Smith to play solid, mistake-free football this season. And I remain impressed by the quality play of a team I thought was going to be terrible heading into 2011. I believe the 49ers are a solid run team and a good run-stopping team and that they can compete with most teams in doing so. That said they also are benefiting from an NFC West schedule. Their one loss was at home against an NFC East team, Dallas. Now they face the Giants, who are even better than the Cowboys, in my opinion. Eli Manning is playing at an elite level. San Francisco can be thrown upon. And New York will serve notice that while the 49ers are better than expected in 2011, the red and gold has a ways to go before they can be considered an elite playoff contender.

Tony:

Minnesota (+13.5) at Green Bay – The last game was close, the Vikings have been playing better, and these two teams always seem to play tight.

Detroit (+3) at Chicago – I’m on record saying I think the Lions go into a bit of a slump, but so far they’ve proven me somewhat wrong.  I don’t know if I’m on record here at Zoneblitz saying I think the Bears are vastly overrated—but I do.  And I thought the game Monday night against the Eagles was a clear case of that—they managed to win yet another game they had no business winning, and Jay Cutler and Mike Martz are hailed as heroes when they still should be considered major weaknesses of the team.

Denver @ Kansas City: Over 41.5 – I’ve clearly got no idea what I’m doing here any more, so back to the old pick against logic methodology.

Upset of the Week: Indianapolis (+3, +145 money line) – I’ll give Indianapolis one more shot…