I don’t know that I would ever want to be in Las Vegas trying to make a bunch of money betting on games played in week 17. Motivation comes into play so much in these games and it’s so hard to say ahead of time who is going to be playing hard, who is going to be resting guys for the playoffs and who is going to play as though all they want to do is pack up their stuff and go home.

It’s even harder picking games several days out, because games that look like they could potentially be important at 3 p.m. central time could be rendered meaningless by the results of games kicking off at noon.

Nonetheless, we’ve cobbled together some picks we think make sense. With last week’s results (Andy 2-2, Tony 0-4), Tony clinched a losing record (28-36 heading into week 17) for the season while I clinched a winning record (34-29-1). Neither one of us will be scaring off the actual betting experts, but what the heck. Here goes:Andy

Pittsburgh (-7) at Cleveland – At one point the Browns were 3-3. Now they’re 4-11, having lost eight of nine. Most of them have been fairly competitive, but it’s probably about time for this team to throw up a clunker, as it finished a brutal six-game, season-ending stretch of games that will have included two against the Steelers, two against the Ravens and another against playoff-hopeful Cincinnati. The Steelers will be playing Cleveland with an eye on the Baltimore/Cincinnati tilt, hoping the Bengals can pull off an upset that would give Pittsburgh a chance at the AFC North division championship and a bye. Here’s guessing they come out and put Cleveland away early.

Indianapolis (+3.5) at Jacksonville – The Colts seem to have found themselves the last couple weeks under the leadership of Dan Orlovsky. In successive weeks they’ve put a serious crimp in the playoff hopes of the Tennessee Titans and relegated the Houston Texans to the third-seed with a last-second comeback win. Jacksonville’s only win in the last six weeks was against a Tampa Bay team that quit playing a long time ago. I’ll gladly take the Colts and the points and hope that Indy continues in its efforts to play so well in meaningless games that it screws up its stranglehold on Andrew Luck.

San Francisco (-10.5) at St. Louis – The 49ers have lost two of their last six games and have not been completely dominant in many of the games they have won recently. The biggest exceptions were a 20-3 Monday night whitewashing of Pittsburgh and a 26-0 win at home against these same St. Louis Rams. The incentive to show up this Sunday is there with the opportunity to tie up a first-round bye in the playoffs. The stronger incentive for St. Louis is getting the season over, as it appears they shut down about six weeks ago. They’ve lost all those games, only once scoring more than 13 points and being shut out twice during that span. Assuming the 49ers don’t mess around early they should get a nice lead and win easily.

Upset of the week:

New York Jets (+2.5, +120) at Miami: It’s hard to know just what constitutes an upset in week 17. The numbers say Miami is the favorite in this game and the line has actually been moving in Miami’s direction throughout the week. Miami’s lone incentive in this game is knocking their rival out of the playoffs. But the Jets are 4-1 in their last five visits to Miami. And though they’ve been inconsistent, I do think the Jets are simply the better team here. It’ll be a low-scoring, ugly game, but the Jets will prevail.

Tony

New England (-11) vs Buffalo – The Patriots need a win to lock up the top seed (or losses by the Steelers AND Ravens). Even with a defense that occasionally appears over-matched, they stomp the Bills in a postseason tune up to send a signal to the rest of the AFC.

Green Bay (+3.5) vs Detroit – Realizing that a good chunk of the Packers may sit half (or more) of this one out, the game is still in Green Bay, and the Packers defense has something to prove. The Lions are already in the playoffs, so the game doesn’t matter much for them either, and they still haven’t really proven they can play outside in the cold.

Baltimore at Cincinnati: Over 38 – Baltimore has a lot on the line, with a bye if they win, and a road trip in the first round if they lose.  I’m not convinced they pull of the victory, to be honest—they seem like the kind of team that could choke in a game like this.  But with two solid defenses like this, logic says it should be low scoring—so bet the over.

Upset of the Week: Indianapolis (+3.5, +170 moneyline) at Jacksonville – My go big or go home pick of the week would have been Tampa Bay over Atlanta, but I just don’t see that one happening, even though Atlanta really has nothing to gain by winning.  So I’ll go back to the well with the Colts, who could manage to really screw up the draft board if they win and the 49ers take care of the Rams.  Two weeks ago people in Minnesota were asking if the Vikings would really pick Andrew Luck with the #1 pick (or trade it) with Christian Ponder being taken #12 overall last year. Now the question around the country could be what will the Rams do with Sam Bradford and the #1 pick?