I knew that our picks had ranged this season from wildly inconsistent to outright brutal, but it had been awhile since we looked at the totals.

So this morning I did the math. It’s been even worse than I thought. Tony started off alright, going 6-2 in the season’s opening two weeks.

It’s been all downhill from there. He’s 16-24 since for a total of 22-26. He rallied a bit in week 12, hitting three of four.

My totals are even worse at 21-26-1, though I’ve been on a bit of a good run the last three weeks, rallying at 8-4. I also hit three of four last week.

So maybe we can salvage something from these picks by the time the season ends. Here goes with week 13. Good luck.
Andy

Denver (+1.5) vs Minnesota – This is moving toward being a pick ’em game as the week rolls on. Minnesota is still okay against the run, but not as good as it has been in recent years. Remi Ayodele has been invisible in his attempt to replace Pat Williams at nose tackle. Tim Tebow may get an opportunity to test out his passing arm in this one too, as the Vikings’ secondary is disgusting. Tebow is 5-1 as a starter. The defense has done a lot of the work in those games, but you have to give the unconventional quarterback credit for leading the team on several late comeback wins. I don’t think he’ll need the last minute heroics this week. Denver keeps the run going, winning comfortably.

Detroit at New Orleans: Under 54.5 – This will be a high scoring game. Both teams generally put up a lot of points. But 54.5 is a high number. The Saints put up 49 against the Giants on Monday, but in the three games previous, during which the point totals for the game would have gone under 54.5, they’d scored just 26, 27 and 21. I suspect they reach 30 this weekend against Detroit, particularly with defensive tackle Ndamukong Suh suspended. But even the high-powered Lions have only played in four games that eclipsed 54.5 this season. And Detroit has scored fewer than 20 points in four of its last six games, all of them losses.

New Orleans (-9) vs Detroit – As stated above, the Lions have lost four of six with the offense contributing 19 or fewer points in those losses. The Lions are 4-1 on the road this season but it seems to me that is more a factor of who they’ve played rather than the sign of being a particularly good road team. Conversely, the Saints have scored 49, 27, 62, 40 and 30 points in five home games this year. Drew Brees will have a field day against the Suh-less pass rush and on his home turf. The Lions will still put up some points, but in the end will not be able to keep up. This line started at 6. I would have been more comfortable with that. But I’ll guess the final difference is about 10 and still go with the Saints.

Upset of the week:

Seattle (+2, +125) vs Philadelphia – The Eagles are free-falling. The defense looked lost against New England. Seattle doesn’t have the same level of weaponry the Patriots do, but they are running the ball well, which should give the Eagles fits. And they stop the run well, which could neutralize Philly’s most consistent weapon of this season, LeSean McCoy. I expect the Seahawks to win a relatively low-scoring game, further crushing the high hopes the Eagles had coming into the 2011 season.

Tony

Seattle (+3) vs Philadelphia – I have Seattle pegged to win, as the Eagles appear to be in a tailspin, but at +130 on the money line, I’ll take the points rather than making it my upset of the week.

Tennessee (+1.5) at Buffalo – Buffalo seems like another team that’s in a bit of a tailspin and Chris Johnson seems to have started to finally earn some of the money he got after holding out.

Denver at Minnesota: Under 37.5 – I still hate taking the under on any game, and this one in particular seems like a “Do the Opposite” type of betting situation—but even as much as I want to, I can’t find a way that Denver scores more than 16, and yet I think they win.

Upset of the Week:

Kansas City (+8, +330 money line) at Chicago – True, I don’t have Kansas City picked to win in our picks this week—but at +330, against the Bears backup QB, I’ll make them the big money upset pick of the week.