I’ve been on a brutal stretch dating back to the last week of the regular season. I managed to get just one of four bets correct on Championship weekend and that dropped my postseason picks to 4-8 overall.

So perhaps it’s for the best that the season ends Sunday.

The New York Giants and New England engage in their rematch. Tell you what — I thought I had a pretty good read on their first Super Bowl matchup. I picked the Patriots to win the AFC and the Super Bowl during a trek to Vegas before training camp started.

And it looked pretty good until David Tyree pinned that miracle catch to his helmet, ultimately helping cost me a nice payday.

I was pretty confident in the Patriots that season. I feel less strongly about either of the participants this year. The Giants are playing the more well-rounded football right now. But the Patriots offense can come together and outscore anyone when they are on.

I picked the Patriots to win straight-up in our other post, but I don’t feel strongly about it. So what would I do if I was in Vegas this time around?

New England (-3) vs New York Giants — Ultimately this game feels to me like a toss-up. I don’t really have any idea who is going to win or by how much. It sounds like Bill Belichick has been more relaxed than normal in the week leading up to the game. And as my brother mentioned in our pick post the other day, that makes me suspicious that he has found something.

But ultimately this bet comes down to this: at the casinos where you can get the Patriots at -3 right now, you’re generally getting them at +100 or even +105 as opposed to the standard -110 for the Giants at +3. So if I’m going to flip a coin to decide which team to bet on I might as well get the better payoff if I win.

New England vs New York Giants: Under 54 — I actually feel a little bit better about this pick than the other one. The Giants have only given up 39 points in three playoff games, including holding explosive Green Bay to 20 points, 14 of which could be directly attributed to questionable officiating calls. And while the Patriots have been abysmal defensively all season long, they’ve given up just 30 points in two playoff games.

Plus, I like Bill Belichick’s chances of coming up with some clever way to limit Tom Coughlin, Eli Manning, Hakeem Nicks, Victor Cruz, et al.
I’m not necessarily expecting this to be a low-scoring game. The offenses are too good. But I expect a game much like many of the Vegas experts cited in the linked piece do — close until the end with the teams ultimately scoring somewhere in the mid-20s. How about 28-24 Patriots?

Works for me.