The largest over/under in the history of the NFL playoffs wasn’t too high for Detroit and New Orleans, as predicted by yours truly.

Unfortunately it was the only bet I got right last week. I thought the underdogs would fare better in the Cincinnati v Houston and Atlanta v New York Giants games. And I sure as hell didn’t see Denver knocking off Pittsburgh.

So it goes, I guess. The beauty of it in the imaginary world of blogging is regardless of how much mythical money I lost on last week’s games, I can always try again this week.
Best Bets:

New Orleans (-3.5) at San Francisco – The Saints have won nine in a row including their playoff triumph over Detroit last week. The margins in the last seven have been 17, 28, 29, 22, 5, 14 and 25. New Orleans is rolling. The 49ers have also been winning, but far less convincingly. It’s been a great revival season in the city by the bay and the defense will keep this game closer than most Saints opponents have lately, but I think the Big Easy will be having the celebration this weekend that it was denied after Alabama beat LSU. It feels like a touchdown to 10 point spread to me.

Houston (+7.5) at Baltimore – I know the Ravens are undefeated at home this season but I’m still having a hard time buying into Baltimore due to their struggles at times against some pretty mundane opposition. Joe Flacco has not impressed in the games I have seen. Meanwhile, I didn’t believe in Houston last week and the Texans went out and destroyed Cincinnati. I expect Baltimore will win this game, but I think Houston keeps it close. They lost three games at the end of the season but one was by a field goal and one was by a single point. I think that’s the type of game you’re looking at here.

Green Bay (-8.5) vs New York Giants – Sweep Dallas, but get swept by Washington. Beat New England, but lose to Seattle. Who can figure out this year’s New York Giants? The Packers weren’t playing their best football the last few weeks of the season, but they’ll benefit from having had the week off and they’ll play with a little extra boost, I think, to not let down offensive coordinator Joe Philbin, who may miss the game while mourning the death of his son, Michael. The Giants could make a mess of this game if they can generate enough pass rush on Aaron Rodgers. It’s the only way they keep this close. The Packers are not the Falcons. New York will not keep Green Bay off the scoreboard. For what it is worth I also would be the over 52.5, as I think the Giants will score – just not enough.

Denver vs New England: Over 51 – A healthy Tom Brady will put up more points against Denver than Pittsburgh did. The Patriots have too many weapons. Denver will score too, though. Bill Belichick might have some wrinkles for stopping Tim Tebow, but New England’s defense is not good. I think the spread (13.5) feels about right to me. So I’ll pass on that bet and take the over.