The games have gotten tougher and tougher to pick over the last few weeks and that just continues getting truer this weekend. And it’s not like I’m coming in on a hot streak either. I improved on my 1-3 wild card weekend picks, hitting two of the four predictions I made during the divisional round. But 3-5 isn’t going to win you anything in Las Vegas except maybe a couple broken legs.

Maybe I can turn it around this weekend.

Baltimore (+7.5) at New England – The three teams that beat New England this year had a couple things in common. They were able to put pressure on Tom Brady and force him into mistakes. And in the case of Pittsburgh, they garnered a huge edge in time of possession, minimizing the opportunities Brady had to make plays. The Ravens have been far better at home than on the road, which makes me a bit nervous about this pick. But Baltimore still had the second-best scoring defense in the AFC. If Terrell Suggs can get pressure on Brady and Ray Rice can eat up chunks of yards I think the Ravens can keep this closer than seven points, if not win the game outright.

Baltimore vs New England: Under 50.5 – Baltimore has not played in a game that went over 50 points since beating Cincinnati 31-24 on Nov. 20. New England has not played in a game that went under 50 since beating Kansas City 34-3 on Nov. 21. As mentioned, if this game turns into a shootout, New England is going to win. But the Ravens have the running game to shorten the game and the defense to make the Patriots work harder for their scores than most teams do. It’ll be right around 50, but if I believe the Ravens are going to win, I have to believe it is going to go under.

San Francisco (-2.5) vs New York Giants – I had been seriously impressed with San Francisco throughout the regular season, but I never took them seriously as a Super Bowl contender. Then last week happened. The 49ers have the second-best scoring defense in the league and they might be the most fundamentally sound tackling unit I’ve seen in years. Hakeem Nicks might score this weekend but it won’t be because a defensive back tried to shoulder tackle him without wrapping up. Alex Smith looks pretty good too. The Giants were ho-hum during most of the regular season but they’ve caught fire. This game is a tossup to me, but if forced to make a decision, I’ll go old school and pick the team that can best fall back on running the ball and playing defense, which with a healthy Frank Gore, is San Francisco.

New York Giants vs San Francisco: Over 42 – Both defenses are playing well right now, but both teams offenses were forced to click last week, as well. It won’t go much over 42, but I expect something like a 24-21 game won on a last second field goal – by David Akers, in this scenario.