I should have headed to Vegas this past week—a perfect 4-0 record in my bets (making me 6-2 for the season), while Andy couldn’t carry his upset and finished 3-1 (5-3).

This week’s best bets:

Andy:

Detroit (-3.5) at Minnesota – This line started at four and actually got closer? What possible sign has anyone seen that would indicate Minnesota can guard against Detroit’s white-hot passing attack right now? Even if the Vikings keep the game close in the first half, they have to actually come out of the locker room for the third quarter in order to keep this game within a field goal. They have yet to do so. Detroit wins this game by double-digits for a big division win on the road.

New England at Buffalo: Over 51.5 – Tony often tells me games like this go the opposite as you would expect. And he’s often right. But offenses are crushing defenses right now league-wide, as long as the Vikings aren’t playing, and both quarterbacks in this game are on fire. Buffalo won’t match the 41 and 38 points it has put on the board the last two weeks against Kansas City and Oakland. But New England does not have a great defense so Ryan Fitzpatrick will put some points on the board. New England might match its 38 and 35 point outputs thus far. This game will get into the mid-50s if not the 60s.

Pittsburgh (-10.5) at Indianapolis – I don’t love this game. I don’t love many of the lines this week. But I’ll take it given how poorly the Colts are playing. Pittsburgh generally plays well in Indianapolis and the Colts have given up a lot of rushing yards to Peyton Hillis and Ben Tate so far. Rashard Mendenhall is that same type of running back. I expect he’ll have a nice, fun afternoon, allowing the Steelers to win fairly comfortably as Indianapolis continues trying to figure out how to function without Peyton Manning.

Upset of the week: Washington (+5.5/+240 money line) at Dallas – Usually for this spot I’ll look for a plus-rated money line I’d be comfortable putting money on. This week there are some large money lines, but none I have a great deal of confidence in betting on. But I do like the Dallas vs Washington game. These two teams have met 14 times on Monday night, with each team winning seven. Both teams have won half the games at home and half on the road. The last five Monday nighters between the two teams have been settled by 1, 3, 2, 6 and 5 points. The last six games in the overall series have been won by 3, 6, 17, 1, 4 and 2. Rex Grossman isn’t playing half bad – actually I would argue that the Redskins so far have outplayed Dallas — and the Cowboys are beaten up in the secondary. Look for Washington to at least keep this game closer than a touchdown and possibly to win outright.

Tony:

San Diego (-14.5) vs. Kansas City – I normally avoid the huge spreads, but Kansas City has looked atrocious this season—and has lost three significant starters to significant knee injuries in three consecutive games. Matt Cassel has looked lost since Charlie Weiss announced he was leaving last year (thanks for the tidbit, Andy). And the game is in San Diego. You’d like to think the AFC West rivalry factor would keep this one closer—but you’d also like to think that the Chiefs could have managed to do better than being outscored 89-10 in the first two games. The Bills and Lions aren’t THAT good yet—but the Chiefs are that bad.

Cleveland (-2.5) vs. Miami – Putting money on Cleveland?  Say it ain’t so…but I think the Browns can control the running game at home against the ‘Phins, and will walk away with at least a one TD victory.

Arizona (-3) at Seattle – The Cardinals offense appeared to have started to gel last week.  The Seahawks offense…well, they managed to achieve one thing that I didn’t expect last week—Tarvaris Jackson made it through the whole game.  I’ve heard at least one “expert” say that Jackson deserves a chance to play at home, where the Seahawks are tough to beat.  By my count, they’re 11-13 at home over the past three seasons with a competent quarterback—not that tough.

Upset of the Week: Atlanta (+1.5/+105 money line) at Tampa Bay.  Not a super sexy upset pick—but the Romo question kept me away from the bigger upset I’ve got picked (Washington over Dallas), and there are no other dogs that I’m that high on (if I were in Vegas, a few of the super high payouts might tempt me, since there seems to be at least one big upset a week), so we’ll go with the closest line on the board in a game I think the Falcons win outright.