I’m not sure if my brother feels this way, but for me,  most seasons, there usually is a point where I feel like I’ve started to feel like I’m at least getting a hint for which teams are good, which are bad, which know how to go for the jugular and which are prone to bad upsets.

Not this year. I don’t have a flippin’ clue. It played out again last week in a 1-3 mark that dropped my best bets to 26-33-1 for the season. That sounds bad – and it is terrible. But it’s still actually ahead of my brother, who went 0-4 and hasn’t made a correct bet in this segment since week 14.

We are committed to playing this out for the season, but if we were really playing this out in Vegas, we’d either have been committed or we’d have been left lying in an alley with our legs broken multiple times.

On that upbeat note, happy holidays and here are our bets.

Andy

Cincinnati (+3.5) at Pittsburgh – Nothing mysterious about this pick. I’m surprised the line is for the Steelers. Cincinnati has won five of six. The offense is clicking to the tune of mid20s to low 30s most of the last couple months. And the defense has given up 13, 13, 10, 6 and 13 points during the five wins.   Pittsburgh has lost four of five and looks to be an aging, injured unit.

Seattle (+1) vs San Francisco – The Seahawks are peaking at the right time. And they’re tough to beat at home. Colin Kaepernick is a rookie. I think the tough Seattle defense will give him fits all night. Look for a low-scoring battle that the Seahawks pull out at home. And put these games on your calendars for the next two or three years because this is setting up to be a rivalry that will play a role each season in determining the winner of the NFC West.

Atlanta (-3.5) over Detroit – The Lions played like a bunch of gutless dogs in getting beat by a pathetic Arizona game – a contest I had the misfortune of watching at a Christmas party due to the joys of the NFL Sunday Ticket. The Lions are more pathetic than I thought and, for a team you would think would be young and hungry, they looked for the most part like they had packed it in. Atlanta, on the other hand, showed a lot of doubters something last week with a dominant win over a New York Giants team that needed the win. This Saturday nighter means more to the Falcons than to the Lions and they’ll get it done comfortably.

Upset of the week: Oakland (+320) at Carolina – Looking over the recent games played by both these teams, there is no logical reason to think the Raiders will win this game. Carolina looks to be the team this year that has a bad record, but can claim with a play here and a play there, the season could have turned out differently. Six of their losses are by six points or less. Oakland, on the other hand, is well deserving of its 4-10 record, having played like dogs against even the doggiest of opponents, except Kansas City. Despite this, the 5-9 record Carolina sports heading into week 16 means there isn’t any reason their opponent should be +320 on the moneyline. Thus, even though I would expect to see the Panthers win this game (they’re actually starting to win with three victories in their last four games), it wouldn’t at all be unlike them to crap the bed.

Tony

Atlanta (-3.5) over Detroit – There’s not much over the last few weeks that makes me think Detroit can ultimately keep it within 4 points, unless Ndamawhateve Suh kicks Matt Ryan in the jimmy. They are not very good against the pass (the Falcons strength), and their offense is just inconsistent enough to pull it off.

Minnesota (+9) at Houston – Normally I hate picking my hometown team in a bet, because they will often find a way to lose the bet and the game. I’m making an exception this week, though, because the Texans seem to have a knack for playing down to their opponents, and both teams would seemingly like to reduce the number of drives of the other team by running it down the other’s throat. If Minnesota wins outright, I win the bet. If they lose close, I win the bet. If they lost big…meh, wasn’t expecting much anyway.

San Francisco at Seattle: Over 39 – The Seahawks have put up 50 or more each of the last two weeks. They won’t get that high this week, but they are at home. The 49ers offense does appear to have gained some explosiveness since they went from Alex Smith to Colin Kaepernick. Even with two pretty good defenses, no reason this one can’t get to the upper 40’s.

Arizona (+195) vs Chicago – Last week I thought the Cardinals had given up on their season. Maybe I was wrong. Now I’m thinking the Bears might be on the verge of imploding. I’m probably wrong again, but in the meantime, with the Cards at home, I’ll take a stab to hit a +195 line.

To see our picks for week 16, click here.