The Pro Football Hall of Fame and the NFL Network teamed up Wednesday night to unveil the complete list of modern-era 
candidates for the Hall’s class of 2014.
The list consists of 126 candidates, including 16 who are in their first year of eligibility. Players must have been out of the game for five years before they are eligible, so this year’s group played their last games in 2008.
The Hall of Fame Selection Committee will trim this list to 25 candidates who will be named semifinalists. They will be announced in November. The semifinalist list will be reduced to 15 finalists via mail ballot. That will be announced in January.
The finalists and two senior candidates, Ray Guy and Claude Humphrey, will be considered by the committee during Super Bowl week in New York City.
We made our predictions on who will be inducted here.
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My prediction for 2014:
Strahan
Brooks
Reed
Jones
Shields
Guy
Humphrey
I’ve just noticed a lot of the defensive lineman candidates are on their last legs of eligibility.
Ed Too Tall Jones – 2014 is his last chance as a modern era candidate.
Jerome Brown – 2016
Dexter Manley – 2016
Fred Smerlas – 2017
Steve McMichael – 2019
Charles Mann – 2019
None of those names above have any realistic chance before they drop off the ballot. Strahan and Haley are also both close to election, especially Strahan as it would be a shock if he wasn’t in the 2014 Class. That only leaves Bryant Young and Ted Washington as long-term names at the position and I think we’ll soon see a big turnover in candidates at the position. Jason Taylor will be there in 2017 and should not have to wait too long before he hears his name called. Hopefully Leslie O’Neal (132.5 sacks), Simeon Rice (122 sacks) and Neil Smith (All Decade 1990s and 104 sacks) will eventually get the recognition they deserve with a nomination. O’Neal and Rice each have 8 seasons of double-digit sacks.
In the 2020s we will start seeing the likes of Jared Allen, John Abraham, Julius Peppers, Kevin Williams, Richard Seymour, Dwight Freeney and Justin Smith as candidates.
My prediction for 2014:
Brooks
Humphrey
Reed
Shields
Strahan
WIlliams (I am now thinking with two other DE elected, Haley waits one more year)
(I believe Guy is deserving but feel he will fall short of the 80% required for election due to some voters not accepting of a special team player, hope I am wrong here)
i hope both seniors make it, i mean humphrey was part of those falcons teams that were not very good, and there is a lack of falcons players in the hall other than deion sanders and ray guy should despite he is a special teams player, special teams are a third of the game behind offense and defense and its a travesty that these writers think that special teams don’t belong in the hall because they kick or a punt a football and thats it i believe both seniors will make it and i think once ray guy is in it will give special teams players a chance to be recognized as a actual position in the game of professional football
If Ray Guy is elected we mightl see the campaign for Steve Tasker gaining speed. Like Guy, Tasker’s best and probably only chance is as a Seniors candidate. I’d also like to see Morten Andersen in Canton some day.
My semifinalist: Jerome Bettis, Terrell Davis, Roger Craig, Shaun Alexander, Tim Brown, Andre Reed, Marvin Harrison,Walter Jones, WIll Shields, Joe Jacoby, Steve Wisniewski, Charles Haley, Michael Strahan, Derrick Brooks, Zach Thomas,Kevin Greene, Karl Mecklenburg, John Lynch, Steve Atwater, Albert Lewis, Steve Tasker, Aeneas Williams, Morten Anderson. There are 13 or so locks to make it. The rest is up for grabs. Not sure who the other 2 will be.
I can see Bryant Young making it.
I would like to see Tony Boselli have his case heard once Pace, Jones, Shields are elected. His resume is very similar to HOF lineman, Dwight Stephenson.
Stephenson had 5 Pro Bowls, was a 4-time 1st team All Pro and a 1980s All Decade selection. He played 8 seasons, with 87 starts and retired aged 30.
Boselli had 5 Pro Bowls, was a 3-time 1st team All Pro and a 1990s All Decade selection. He played 7 seasons with 90 starts and played his last game at 29.
What’s really impressive is that Boselli faced much stiffer competition for All-Pro honours at tackle than Stephenson had at center. The three years Boselli was All-Pro the other 1st team tackles were Larry Allen, Jon Ogden and Orlando Pace – two 1st ballot HOFers and a future HOFer. Roaf (HOF) and Jones (a HOF lock) were also competing for honours. Boselli finished his career at age 29 with the same number of 1st team All Pros as Roaf and Pace – 3. Ogden and Jones had 4.
Stephenson’s honours came after Mike Webster’s best years and before Dermontti Dawson hit his prime.
With Ray Guy being a senior nominee and discussing the importance of special teams, how much of a Hall of Fame argument does Jim Bakken have?
Even if Guy gets elected I do not think it will result in many more special team players making the HOF, perhaps Morten Andersen as the leader in career points. There are just so many equal or more qualified regular players, special team players will still be seen as lower tier and not equal to regular players.
Shane Lechler will be an interesting situation. Stats say how isn’t he?
how about debartolo jr and tagliabue in the semi-finalist list?
I rate the HoF worth of PKs by FG% adjusted to era and longevity. According to a study Rupert Patrick has done, the top 5 in adjusted FG% are Lou Groza and Jan Stenerud (both in) and Nick Lowery, Gary Anderson, and Morton Andersen (not in, all still regularly eligible).
Haven’t seen the study recently, and am not sure where Bakken (1962-1978, 63.087%) rates here. He’s probably reasonably good, though — his primary competition among non-HoF PKs of the time would be the slightly later-starting Garo Yepremian (1966-1981, 67.093%) and Don Cockroft (1968-1980, 65.854%), as well as Jim Turner (1964-1979, 62.295%) and Fred Cox (1963-1977, 61.978%) who are probably closer contemporaries. Cockroft punted regularly as well, which might be seen as a plus.
I totally missed this announcement last week. I’ve got a couple of thoughts:
1) Wow, there are a lot of 1st-year nominees on this list. Even as a Chiefs fan, I have to laugh at Trent Green making the cut.
2) One tight end? What about at the very least Ben Coates?
3) After a few down years, there are a ton of RB’s this year. With so many RB’s having similar careers in the late 90’s / early 00’s, I think this will be the norm for the next few upcoming classes.
4) I know he won’t get inducted, but I’m very happy to see Doug Flutie on the list. If this truly is a Pro Football Hall of Fame, he deserves induction after having success in 3 different pro leagues. As a Canadian who grew up watching a lot of CFL football, I’d say he was easily the best player of his era in the league, and one of the best of all-time. Obviously it’s a passing league, but he once threw for over 6600 yards AND rushed for 14 TD’s in a season!
Boknows34 – You make a great point about the d-linemen. With Haley and Strahan likely to get inducted soon, a bit of a lull with newly eligible players, and several 80’s stars coming to end of their candidacy, there will likely be a healthy amount of turnover in the next few years. For whatever reason, several of the better linemen from the early-mid 90’s have been getting the short end of the stick lately, and I can’t fathom why no one would mail in a nomination for Neil Smith, Leslie O’Neal, Pat Swilling or Michael Dean Perry.
Simeon Rice is another head-scratching omission, especially since he wasn’t even nominated as a first-year player. He lacked the post-season awards, but had a ton of sacks. They have recognized similar counting stat heroes over the past couple of years including a couple that played for the same team as him (Keenan McCardell, Warrick Dunn), so why not Rice?
With regards to Boselli, I think he’ll have a good opportunity in about 5 years to finally get to the semi-finalist list. With Steve Hutchinson and Matt Birk retiring in the off-season, we’re likely looking at a good five-year or so gap where no highly-deserving linemen will be retiring. Jones, Shields, Pace and Faneca are probably looking at inductions over the next couple of years, but beyond that Boselli will likely be in the conversation for best eligible lineman.
With special teamers, I think they are unfortunately a victim of the numbers game. If the NFL inducted more players per year, I’d say Lowery, Anderson and Andersen would be shoo-ins. Unfortunately, aside from Morten Andersen, I don’t think any of these guys (or Landeta, Tasker, Metcalf, etc.) have a chance to get in as modern-era nominees. Ray Guy’s nomination is proof that special teams players are not going to be completely ignored but I don’t see a landslide of any sort coming.
Jim Bakken would easily be the hall’s pick if they ever nominated a senior kicker. Making 2 all-decade teams is a huge accomplishment, though Gary and Morten made the 80’s and 90’s teams as well. If neither gets in as a modern-era player, I fear that Bakken’s window will close for quite a while.
One observation I would make about discussions regarding players from a particular position, such as identifying Boselli as a possible semi-finalist in 5+ years when there may be a gap in OL contenders, is that once you get down to the semi-finalist and then final 15 lists not every position need be represented especially given the depth at so many other positions. Just look at the lack of QBs in the last several elections. Same can really be said for special team players who are really going to find it a hard road with so many other deep positions even if Guy is elected as a senior (same situation for the many qualified contributors). The big push recently for defense and OL (and now and in near future on WRs) will push many players on the edge right out of serious contention.
any contributors beside taglibue, modell, and DeBartolo make the semifinalist list?
I do not think so, but history has shown sometimes a contributor will suddenly get a big push and end up as a finalist and even elected (Sabol a few years ago), so it is possible – Bud Adams?
George Young was a semi-finalist for the 2013 Class. Young has also been a 3-time finalist in 2003, 04 and 05. Unless a new path is created for Contributors/Coaches his chance appears to have come and gone from the Modern Era route.
Robert Kraft is in his first year but he has every bit of the resume DeBartolo has. I also would put give consideration to Tagliabue at this point.
My list would be this
1. Claude Humphrey
2. Michael Strahan
3. Aeneas Williams
4. Andre Reed
5. Will Shields
6. Derrick Brooks
great list there bill waller
my list would be:
ray guy
claude humphrey
michael strahan
andre reed
aeneas williams
will shields
and charles haley
dark horse:
aeneas williams
derrick brooks
or possibly it could happen tony dungy
any surprises that could come out of the semifinalist list come november
My 15 finalists: Jerome Bettis, Terrell Davis, Tim Brown, Andre Reed, Marvin Harrison,Walter Jones, WIll Shields,, Charles Haley, Michael Strahan, Derrick Brooks, Zach Thomas,Kevin Greene, John Lynch, Steve Atwater, Aeneas Williams.
i don’t know about zach thomas, no tony dungy or any contributors there, i would put at least one coach there myself, good list there brad
I am a Jets fan and Zach Thomas is every bit what his 5/7/00s profile says. I can see a coach in the finals, but Zach deserve consideration.
deserves*
Zach Thomas may have a chance some day but too many other players ahead of him. I see DeBartolo, Modell and Kraft as possible semi-finalists. I also like Joe Jacoby to possibly sneak back into the semi-finalist list.
how about bud adam from the titans/oilers? would he get some consideration?
Bud Adams certainly should entertain some consideration. He does not get lambasted for moving his franchise nearly as much as Art Modell does.
i agree but art modell should get some consideration, i know what he did wasn’t good for the browns fans, but you can’t write the history of the nfl without art modell and its a shame but of what he did with the browns by moving them to baltimore that he can’t even get in even after his passing so hopefully someday he gets his due in canton
how about steve sabol for consideration?
Sabo will go in the next time their is a lull in surefire candidates. Same with Tagliabue more than likely. At some point they should look into a separate category for non-players. Their are a number of officials and assistant coach’s who should get consideration.
I doubt looking at the next 10 years or so that there is going to be any lull in strong player candidates as an earlier post on this board showed, there are just so many qualified players that will make up the 2014 finalists and for future years.
As many have noted, including the HOF and some voters, placing contributors up against players is not the best process as many well deserving contributors will continue to lose out because the game is rightly first and foremost about the players on the field. We have already mentioned 4-5 really good contributors but there is no way one is getting in every year over the next five years – just too many great players on the 15 finalists list. Sure every few years a movement will push a contributor deep into the elections, may be even selected, but at that rate it will take years to get them in.
The only correct and long term solution (like other HOFs) is to determine a separate selective process to elect contributors to the football HOF – everyone knows this problem and the need to fix, HOF Board needs to change the procedures to address it. Until such time Adam, Modell, Sabol, Tagliabue and several coaches and others are going to have a long and hard uncertain path to election.
If you look at the list of players likely to receive serious consideration over the next five elections, many to make the finalist lists – not all elected immediately but in the mix – I see no lull in strong player candidates resulting in room for many contributors:
Bettis, Brown, Greene, Haley, Reed, Shields, Strahan, Williams, Brooks, Harrison, Seau, Warner, Pace, Bruce, Holt, Mawae, Law, James, Favre, Owens, Sharper, Faneca, Tomlinson, Taylor, Dawkins, Ward, Lewis, Moss, Barber, Hutchinson, Urlacker (total = 30)
plus several others that could move into the 15 finalists lists over the next five years (Craig, Davis, Boselli, Jacoby, Matthews, Mecklenberg, Atwater, Lewis, Lynch, Andersen, Tasker and others), it is going to be hard for many contributors to break through.
Now I am not saying all those players will be elected from 2014-2018 (some may be much longer, perhaps never), but the fight to get into the final 15 is not going to be an easy one.
it is just a tough go-around regarding the final cut-down list, so many players get left out that are worthy for the hall of fame
I guess it depends how you define “worthy for the hall of fame”, I think the standard is- and should be pretty high – and that only a maximum of five can get in each year keeps to that standard but also means some will wait long, others will never get in. Looking at the modern elections over the last 10-15 years I could question when a player was elected and in some cases over or before others, but all appear to me to be deserving.
To me it does not appear too many that are in fact deserving are left out and for those the seniors path is always an option (although a much longer path to election). Frankly I would prefer the current high standard and limited elections over the alternative of flooding the HOF with selections by electing more each year or a resulting lowering of the standard, even if that means some good and marginally great players get left out.
What if you alternated every other year between 2 senior nominees and 2 contributors?
I’m in favor of the current system (two senior nominees every year and maximum 5 from the regular pool) but think adding one coach/contributor nominee (either per year or every other year) makes sense.
We’ve documented the lengthy list of good senior nominees out there before. The best way to know on contributors would be to bring up how many current nominees are possible from that pool. Current plausibles on the latter: George Young, Ron Wolf, Bobby Beathard, Clark Shaughnessy, Bill Polian, Art Modell, Eddie DeBartolo Jr., Bob Kraft, Tony Dungy, Buddy Parker, Steve Sabol, Bill Arnsparger, Richie Petitbon, Don Coryell, Bill Cowher, Mike Holmgren, Paul Tagliabue, Dan Reeves, Chuck Knox, Marty Schottenheimer, Dick Vermeil, Bud Adams, Art McNally, Paul Tagliabue, possibly others. Would I put all these folks in? Not necessarily, but there’s a pretty good sized pool right there. One a year seems reasonable if the pool is this big.
I would favor adding an eight slot every other year for one contributor only, would hate to see modern or senior slots reduced even if only occasionally as I do believe that the pool of candidates for modern and senior are much deeper in quality deserving selections then the contributors.
yeah or nominate 2 contributors every other year and only 1 of the 2 contributors can be voted in a given year
Bettis, Brown, Greene, Haley, Reed, Shields, Strahan, Williams, Brooks, Harrison, Seau, Warner, Pace, Bruce, Holt, Mawae, Law, James, Favre, Owens, Sharper, Faneca, Tomlinson, Taylor, Dawkins, Ward, Lewis, Moss, Barber, Hutchinson, Urlacker-Of those listed, 5 are first ballot in Brett Favre, Derrick Brooks, Junior Seau, LaDainian Tomlinson, and Ray Lewis. Jason Taylor , Alan Faneca, and Ronde Barber are borderline first ballot. Terrell Owens and Randy Moss are first ballot HOFers if they had different names.
Very interesting how the Hall of Fame plays out next 6-7 years.
The debate over first ballot selections has been held in these board many times, in my view the whole issue is overrated as once you get past the obvious names (Favre for example) since selections are limited to only 5 modern per year, well deserving and obvious first ballot selections are always going to be missed some years with those players waiting a year or longer (Parcells and Strahan just to name a few recents) and the personal views and opinions of the voters also often coming into play along with the deep pool of 15 finalists in many years and subjective decisions about who gets in and in what order.
As many have said getting on to the final 15 makes election very likely eventually and into the final 10 a certainty at some point.
Now debating so called “borderline” first ballot gets really interesting as what does that really mean, does it make any difference, and who would those players be? For example I would question that Taylor, Faneca and Barber are “borderline” first ballot elections as in my view they are not that close and could end up waiting several years for election – by my definition of “borderline” first ballot players they would clearly fall short.
No way is Barber first ballot but he will be in some day. There will still be many holdovers over the next few years as well with Lynch, Harrison, Mecklenburg, Z. Thomas, Haley and Jacoby who all should still be in or near the finalist list over the next few years. There will be many players who will have to wait their turn.
I just read the LC Greenwood passed away. I always thought of him as a HOFamer. Maybe a senior candidate some day.
Ronde Barber is not far from a first ballot Hall of Famer. Named to 2000’s All Decade Team, has the most consecutive starts as a Defensive Back, sacks as a cornerback(28, whereas most Defensive Lineman don’t for a career), forced 15 fumbles and has scored a total of 14 non offensive TDs in 4 different ways. Only NFL/AFL/AAFC player with 8 interceptions returned for TD and 4 fumble recoveries for TD. Not saying he is going to be first ballot but his resume is pretty darn good.
Adrian Peterson is well on his way to a season of 1,500 yards the way he is running. He is more and more being a first ballot HOF type of player each game he plays. He could retire end of the season and the Hall of Fame voters wouldn’t have a problem putting him in.
There are only 8 safeties in the HOF and only Ronnie Lott was first ballot. I believe there is very little chance Barber goes In on the first ballot.
The only concern that may come up with Peterson is if he can not extend his career beyond the current 7 years, injury and the 30 age barrier have resulted in the decline in many RBs. Having said that he clearly is on the path for the HOF but without another 3 or more years of quality production (and continuing to lack playoff success) he may fall sort of first ballot election as some voters have issues many times with short careers.
Again the first ballot standard is much higher then many people make it out to be, there are players with 10+ pro bowls or 5+ all pro, and all decade team members, who have not been 1st ballot selections and CB and S are not always high priority for elections. Case in point: Aeneas Williams
I think Greenwood is suffering from the large number of 1970s era Steelers already in the HOF (10!). Frankly, before he gets elected as a senior the only remaining 1st team defensive member of the 1970s team should be elected (Cliff Harris) and perhaps one can also argue the only remaining offensive 1st team member of the 1970s team as well (Drew Pearson)
I agree with the point that there are so many Steelers in the HOF already. I always thought Greenwood, Andy Russell, Dwight White and Donnie Shell deserved more attention than they received. They were all dominant at their positions for an extended period of time. There is a reason why they are 4-0 in Super bowls in which they played
mike wagner was a good steelers safety as well
Adrian Peterson is one of the greatest RB’s of all time. If Terrell Davis, who had a HOF worthy career and is a semifinalist for many years, has 4 seasons in which he started and played in 14 games each season then he played in 17 games in next and last 3 seasons; then AP deserves first ballot consideration. Also, postseason matters ,yes, but if it mattered a lot then explain why Gale Sayers and Dick Butkus were both voted first ballot and have never seen a single postseason game. AP is on pace for more than 1,600 yards. Look up what the other RBs do the year after they rush for 2k. AP AD.
Adrian Peterson will be in the HOF even if he never rushes for another yard again! Mike Wagner was a good safety, I had forgotten about him. Speaking of never playing again…if Vince Wilfork never plays another down, is he a HOFamer.
All I am saying is that if AD retired today he would not be a sure lock 1st ballot HOF as some voters would judge his career short
And I am thinking that given the high standard set for DL, Vince Wilfork is going to need a few more high quality seasons to be considered for the HOF
i’ll say this much adrian peterson has a much better shot as opposed to terrell davis, but both players should be in the hall of fame regardless if their playing careers were short or not
I would agree that AP is closer to TD, and would not have an issue electing both at some point, just that with the 80% of voters needed to gain election it only takes a few (8-10 out of 40 + voters) to block a player and they may that many who have issue with short careers.
AP has the 3rd highest rushing average of all time. He is voted the best player by his peers heading into the 2013 season. The previous year he had his MCL and ACL torn. His future was in doubt and he ends up rushing for the 2nd most yards in a single season. AP deserves first ballot consideration because of that and he has the most rushing in a game ever and did it as a rookie. Think of this as well: Adrian Peterson has 18 games of at least 140 rushing yards in 93 games. Emmitt Smith has 22 in 226 games. Emmitt has 1 game of 200 rushing yards. AP has not 1, not 2, not 3, but 4( 3 in 2012). Games of 180: Emmitt 2. AP 8.
yeah so peterson is on the right track in that department
AP is a singles hitter as well as a HR hitter.
Short careers make for some very interesting and intense debates over HOF elections, but it is very likely AP will have another 2-3 productive years and this will not be an issue and he will be first ballot HOF selection.
he is a just a great running back period
Would led to an interesting debate to have a discussion as to where AP would currently rank on the top RBs of all time (since any recent or past list of top RBs already gets a lively discussion going!)
For me I always like to create such top lists with a rule of only selecting the best players I have seen play since I first started as NFL fan, and I know this eliminates so many great players pre 1977 but still makes an interesting list and discussion. Based on that rule my RB list looks like this:
1. Barry Sanders
2. Walter Payton
3. Emmitt Smith
4. Earl Campbell
5. Tony Dorsett
6. Eric Dickerson
7. Adrian Peterson
8. LaDainian Tomlinson
9. Marshall Faulk
10. Thurman Thomas
I have similar names but different order
1.Walter Payton (best HB blocker I have ever seen)
2.Barry Sanders
3. Emmitt Smith
4. Eric Dickerson
5. Adrian Peterson
6. Earl Campbell
7. Marshall Faulk
8. LaDanian Tomlinson
9. Marcus Allen
10. Tie Curtis Martin, Tony Dorsett
my list would be:
walter payton
barry sanders
jim brown
marshall faulk
adrian peterson
curtis martin
tony dorsett
eric dickerson
jerome bettis
and emmitt smith
I was only born in 1985, so I missed a lot of great running back play. My top 10 RB’s that I have seen play are:
1) Barry Sanders – By a wide margin
2) Emmitt Smith – He was very impressive, but I always felt he benefitted from being surrounded by an outstanding team.
3) Marshall Faulk
4) Adrian Peterson
5) LaDainian Tomlinson
6) Terrell Davis
7) Curtis Martin
8) Priest Holmes – For the 3 years he was on my Chiefs, the guy was an absolute beast.
9) Fred Taylor – A shame he could never stay healthy. Should be a borderline hall of famer based on talent alone, but had too many injuries and never got post-season recognition
10) Edgerrin James
Never was all that impressed by Bettis, but I feel his counting stats are good enough to get him into the Hall. Obviously I missed his best years, but I will never understand what Marcus Allen did to warrant a first-ballot Hall of Fame induction aside from stay moderatly effective for a long time, allowing him to pad his stats.
Bslo are you freaking kidding me about allen here is his Wikipedia http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Marcus_Allen
Marcus Allen certainly stormed out of the gate and had an amazing 4-year stretch to start his career, but from 1986 on (75% of his career), he was mostly an average-above average back who compiled stats, and finished with outstanding overall numbers over a 16-year career. From what I remember of him on the Chiefs, he had the occasional standout game, but was mostly just a goal-line back for his 5 years there.
As I said, I missed his best years with the Raiders, but I always was surprised that Hall voters voted him in immediately. If someone like Terrell Davis spent the next 10 years of his career post-1998 running for 600-700 yards a season, would be be considered a first-ballot lock? There was just a lot of mediocrity in Allen’s career that I find is hard to overlook. That said, if someone who saw him play can explain the greatness of his full career, I am more than willing to listen. Obviously the stats aren’t everything.
In the middle of Marcus Allen’s prime. Al Davis and him squabbled and Allen’s coach’s were told to limit his touches and no more goal line situations. As a way to get on the field, when Al Davis brought in Bo Jackson, he went to FB and immediately was the best in the league at that. Was the second best blocking RB, I’ve seen only to Walter Payton. In his prime he was the best break away threat in the game. He also was very good at receiving, blocking and threw a few TD’s if I remember correctly. Terrell Davis was in my top 15. What hurts him in my opinion was even when he was done, the Broncos plugged in guys like Mike Anderson, Orlandis Gary, etc. And they looked like beasts as well. Their Zone blocking at the time was ahead of the league for awhile. In my estimation he was not much ahead of Priest Holmes, or Shaun Alexander.
Robert- You should put a list up. I never saw Jim Brown, Gale Sayers or OJ Simpson but my dad say’s that Brown would be his number one, Simpson his 6th and Sayers his 8th.
Bill – That was a great rundown of Allen’s career. I knew that there was a contract squabble with Al Davis in the late 80’s, but wasn’t aware that his low production for those following years was related to Davis getting some payback. Certainly makes sense, and unfortunately must have robbed him of some prime years. Also wasn’t aware of his blocking ability…I’m sure his blitz pickup would have been solid as well since he generally played all 3 downs. I probably didn’t give him enough credit there.
With that in mind, he sounds more like he had a career comparable to Thurman Thomas or Curtis Martin, but having a ROTY award coupled with one of the best postseasons ever, a Super Bowl MVP and some MVP recognition probably put him over the top when he became eligible.
I agree with your take on Terrell Davis. His case is hurt just as much by what other players did in Denver after him as it’s hurt by his short career.
If you are talking an all-time list, I’d probably go Jim Brown #1 with Payton and Sanders being a photo-finish for 2nd. I don’t think we’ll ever see a back like Brown again. He looked like a man among boys when he bulled over defenders, and retired on top after one of his best seasons. He averaged over 100 rushing yards a game, and led the league in rushing during 8 of his 9 seasons. Incredible!
Allen also retired with the record of career TDs (he is still 6th on that list), which got him plenty of HOF voter cred for 1st ballot election (plus SB and season MVP awards)
Marcus Allen at 37 years old had 505 yards on 124 carries. Not 27 years old. 37. His last season. He could have played until his 40’s.
allen is very underrated as a running back
I definitely have a better overall understanding of Allen getting in right away. His overall resume ticks basically every box…Rookie Of The Year, Super Bowl winner, Super Bowl MVP, MVP, all-time leader in TD’s (even if it was only briefly), all-around threat as a receiver and blocker, excellent playoff performances, solid post-season award resume. It is hard, if not impossible, to argue for him to wait when you line up all of those parts together.
I still do think though that his biggest asset was his longevity. It is pretty much unheard of these days for a RB to play 16 seasons, and I think that playing out several solid, but definitely not spectacular seasons, helped cement his status as an all-time great. I would definitely not call him underrated though.
If you look at his seasons as a whole, he had a tale of 2 careers. He was arguably the best back in football from 1982-1985, and then topped out at 890 rushing yards and 1212 yards from scrimmage over the next 12 seasons. He remained a solid all-around threat, and definitely a great goal-line back but let’s face it, he had 4 years that resembled Terrell Davis and 12 that resembled Earnest Byner, leaving him with only 3 1000 yard rushing seasons, and only 5 years where he averaged over 60 rushing yards a game. Rushing for 505 yards at 37 is definitely impressive, but rushing for 754 at 27 is not. I know that a feud with Al Davis compromised some great prime years of his career, but in the same ways that you can’t play the what-if game with injuries, you can’t play the what-if game with those seasons.
He’s probably one of the most interesting Hall of Fame cases out there. He definitely deserves to be there, but man there are a lot of blemishes on his career once you get past the great stuff.
“but man there are a lot of blemishes on his career ” same can be said for many other players including HOFers. Kurt Warner debate in 2015 going to be very interesting for much the same reason.
However, “Rookie Of The Year, Super Bowl winner, Super Bowl MVP, MVP, all-time leader in TD’s” is pretty darn impressive, not matched by many other players in history of the league, and hard not to avoid or keep him out of HOF
I completely agree Paul. Warner is going to be a similar case in 2015, but there will be plenty of questions regarding whether he will be a first-ballot inductee. In fact, I wouldn’t be surprised if he has to wait awhile. Allen never gets mentioned in this tone despite the fact that he was arguably not an elite RB for 75% of his career.
I am not saying that Allen doesn’t belong, but I am surprised that his inconsistency gets completely overlooked. Personally I would not have inducted him right away regardless of how many quotas he hits. To me, a Hall of Famer (especially a first-ballot inductee) should at least be at the top of his peers for the majority of his career. Allen just wasn’t in my opinion, regardless of his effectiveness in a variety of situations.
Are we at least in agreement that Marcus Allen was better than John Riggins or Franco Harris?
I believe that John Riggins career is the RB version of Kurt Warner’s. Both had team give up on them after solid beginnings to their careers and then became sentimental favorites when they had resurrected careers after some significant lulls in production.
I don’t think you can compare Allen situation with a situation with that of an injury prone player. I remember one time when Allen was in Al Davis’s dog house he had 7 carries in the first half for 77 yards in the first half against the Chargers…was not injured and the only time he got on the field in the second half was when Marc Wilson was doing the victory formation. Talk about a slap in the face. Napolean McCallum had 14 or 15 second half carries for 25 or 30 yards.
One wild-card issue with “first ballot” guys — consider how strong/weak the new incoming class is. Marcus Allen was first-time eligible during a relatively weak year for such folks. Same’s true for Jim Kelly, Jackie Slater, and Darrell Green, all “first-ballot” HoF-ers but not necessarily “elite of the elite.”
Conversely, look at Michael Strahan this past year — in many other years, he likely would have been “first ballot,” but his first eligible year was also Larry Allen’s, Jonathan Ogden’s, and Warren Sapp’s.
backslunch is correct as each year the voters seem to look for a few (usually 1-2) first time eligible players to select, in some years the first time players are few (like in 2014) other years very strong (like 2013), so in many cases first time players get elected due to a determined weak first year class. Allen is one of those cases. Again as I have stated before in my view the debate over 1st year selections is very overrated as it often reflects the pool of candidates more than the individual elected.
kurt warner should be inducted first-ballot in my opinion
Well with Seau also a likely 1st year player elected in 2015, and a deep pool of returning candidates from 2014 (plus others new in 2015) it will be an interesting election as Warner really has two excellent short mini-careers (3 years long each), separated by five dead years right in the middle of his career. His 2/4 profile is not strong, but the two MVP plus SB MVP are pretty impressive. Could be easy to see him as 1st year selection, but also not given the low overall career numbers and those average or below years.
Will take some careful consideration and debate by the voters to sort out his case, I would say a 50/50 chance of gaining election as it would only take 8-10 voters to not select him to result in non-election. Hard to know, but if I was forced to guess I would lean to a 2-3 year wait.
plus you got the rams wide receivers up for consideration, torry holt and issac bruce
Rams’ WRs will have to wait until Marvin Harrison, Terrell Owens, and Randy Moss are inducted. We’ll see how long it takes Andre Reed and TIm Brown to be inducted too. Then throw in Hines Ward into the mix: 1,000 receptions, 2 time Super Bowl champion, and Super Bowl MVP doesn’t happen very often. Huge logjam coming.
With so many 900+ reception WRs in the mix from the same era and appearing on the ballot over the next few years, some are going to wait along time to get elected (if at all). Just look how long it is taking Reed and Brown to get in. I am not so sure 7 or 8 WRs from the 2000s decade are deserving of election into the HOF simply based on playing in an era of exploding passing offensives, ten years from now with several more 900+ WRs (and TEs) in the mix for HOF consideration, the entire view and judgement of WRs and TEs in terms of the HOF will change.
Bill Waller – Yes, I would definitely say that Allen was better than Riggins. Given his versatility, I would put him ahead of Harris too.
bachslunch – That is a great point about the competition in the year Allen was inducted in. It was definitely a lighter year than the first years that similarly versatile players like Thurman Thomas and Curtis Martin were eligible (both of whom had to wait).
As for the WR’s, I think that there will be a run on inducting them over the next few years, as there are not a lot of great skill position candidates becoming eligible over the next several classes. My guess is that Harrison, Reed and Brown get inducted over the next 3-4 years (in no particular order), with Owens getting in shortly after and Moss getting in during either his 1st or 2nd year of eligibility. Holt, Bruce and Ward will likely have to wait a bit of time, maybe 5-10 years or even the senior’s pool if they spill into the best receievrs of the 2010’s.
Reggie Wayne is an interesting candidate coming up as well. I would personally put him in ahead of Holt/Bruce/Ward if they all became eligible in the same year, but I don’t know if I’d move him to the front of the queue if all three aren’t in once he becomes eligible. Assuming he doesn’t fall off a cliff soon (always possible), he’s likely to finish his career 3rd all-time in receptions, close to the the top 5 in receiving yards and with around 90 TD’s. Couple that with a Super Bowl ring, 6 Pro Bowls, a couple years as an All-Pro, and no glaring weakness in his resume, I don’t think his credentials are in question. It’s mostly a matter of who else is eligible when his name comes up for consideration.
reggie wayne has put up some ridiculous numbers
if sterling sharpe didn’t have that injury, he would have a been a hall of famer
Chris plenty of players would have made the HOF if it would not have been for injuries, unfortunately they are a part of the game as is career longevity
I am not sure how all the 2000s decade WRs are going to sort out, but I can see some pretty heated debate among the voters when it gets to discussing the 6, 7 and even 8 WR from the same era being elected. I know we have been over this debate before about how many players from one position from an era/decade is enough and whether there is or should be a limit. But the debate over the years has clearly shown how the voters struggle over electing players from a position once a number (4-5?) have already been elected and how many of those later nominees end up in a log jam (such as current Reed/Brown). It may be that beyond Moss and Owens that others among Holt/Bruce/Ward/Wayne get elected (plus adding in the pass receiving TEs Gonzales, Witten) but it will likely be a long wait for some.
Wayne caught 5 passes last night and now has 1,001 career receptions. He needs another 102 receptions to pass former teammate Marvin Harrison into 3rd place all-time.
Wayne’s career numbers make one wonder about the relevance of Harrison’s in judging his election to the HOF. If Harrison does not get elected in 2014 (which I doubt he will) I wonder how the discussion for 2015 and 2016 will go if Wayne has surpassed Harrison’s career numbers – sort of “waters down” his case.
harrison will get in sooner rather than later
I think the problem Harrison is going to face is that from 2015-2018 each year brings another HOF eligible quality WR on to the ballot leading a rapid log jam. Just like the mess with Carter/Reed/Brown over the last few elections, the WRs starting in 2015 will take several years to sort out, making if very hard for Harrison to rise above and get elected as his case is not that much better then Owens, Ward and Moss, and with Holt and Bruce right there as well (and Brown still also on the ballot past 2014) resulting in plenty of split views and votes from the HOF voters. Unfortunately like Carter and now Reed, I can see Harrison easily being caught up in a log jam that by no fault of his own qualifications – but with the deep of the candidate pool especially at WR -result in him ending up several years from election.
While I don’t think Harrison gets in on the first ballot, I’d be surprised if he waits more than 3-5 years. A lot of it will be up to the voters committing to induct one WR per year. Even if Wayne retires with more receptions and receiving yards, Harrison will still have far more TD’s (he’s 48 ahead of him currently), more Pro Bowls, more All-Pro honours, and a spot on an all-decade team. That alone should keep him ahead of Wayne.
I have no idea how the voters are going to approach Owens and Moss, as they had character issues that impacted their teams on the field, and neither has a Super Bowl victory. Harrison doesn’t have these same flags, though his stats and post-season honours are slightly weaker. Ward, Holt and Bruce will not hold up his induction. They are definitely a step below credential-wise.
While I feel Harrison is a HOFer, the large number of HOF quality WRs that are soon to enter the ballot may very well create the same type of logjam that kept Carter out for as long as he did and has kept Reed/Brown out. Like it or not both Moss and Owens are also getting into the HOF but you are right that the character issues will keep some from not voting, enough to delay their elections. My concern was if you end up with 3-4 high quality WRs on the ballot year after year someone deserving is still going to have to wait once we have Harrison, Owens, Moss, Ward, Holt and Bruce all right there. Like the current logjams at WR and OL (and recent with pass rushing DE/LB), it will be sorted out but in meantime some are going to be delayed and others wait for several years I suspect. With 900+ receptions, two SB wins (including SB MVP), I think the case for Ward is going to be stronger than many may expect, not an immediate election but within 5 or so years.
TO and moss won’t get in for a while at least
I know many fans hate Moss and TO and yes some voters will not elect them due to character issues especially as 1st year players, but their numbers are pretty hard to avoid for very long.
Moss: 4/6, team of 2000s, most rec TDs in season, 982 career rec, 156 TDs career (2nd all time), ten 1000yrd seasons (eligible in 2018), hard to say at this point what the pool of candidates including 1st year players will be on the ballot in 2019 and beyond, but at this point with possible noted exceptions of Brady and Manning – if either retire in next few years – likely not to be many offensive players or WRs on those ballots against Moss by 2019.
TO: 5/6, team of the 2000s, 1078 career recs (6th), 15934 career yards (2nd), 153 TDs career (3rd), nine 1000s seasons (eligible in 2016), could be caught up in log jam of WRs with some combination of Harrison, Bruce/Holt (2015) and Ward (2017), but his numbers exceed all of theirs. If not elected as 1st time in 2016, could fall into jam by the time Moss arrives on the ballot in 2018, but until Wayne arrives on the ballot, TO will be the top WR after Moss. Open window for him by 2020 and beyond (also possible he slips in during 2017 election).
Also intended to mention that their cases to some degree reflect Irvin, who had decent career numbers, great playoff and SB numbers, 1/5, team of 1990s profile, but with huge character issues – yet he only waited 3 years to election
Devin Hester is not done yet for Hall talk.
Man, just as we are talking about Reggie Wayne, he goes down with a potentially career-ending torn ACL. I personally think his HOF chances are still solid, but this certainly hurts his chances at improving his already great resume. Very sad to see, as he is one of the classiest and most durable receivers in the league.
It also is being reported that Bud Adams has died at age 90. As an original AFL owner, he certainly has been in the league through a tremendous amount of change and growth. It will be interesting to see if he gets a sympathy bump onto the semi-finalist list.
Unfortunately it is still going to be a very long and hard road for a pure KR/PR to get into the HOF even if special team players like Guy and other Ks are elected.
I understand Special Teamers are not voted in a lot hence only one pure is in. Devin Hester is beyond a good special teamer. He is a special one. He has 3 more Punt return TDs than anyone in the history of the NFL. Of players with at least 5 Kick return TDs, only 1 has more than 3 punt returns for TD: Dante Hall with 6. But no one has ever had a two year peak like Devin did his first two years. 6 return TDs for a career is good. For a single season two straight years? He may be from a different planet.
Cam Newton is closing in on 10,000 passing yards and 2,000 rushing yards. He is on pace to reach numbers in passing yards, TDs, rushing yards, and TDs together that no player has ever and probably won’t.
is bud adams going to be in the semifinalist list now that his death has shined some mew light on his candidacy?
bud adams: Hall-of-Famer?
I am not so sure how I feel about Bud Adams, on the one hand he was a long time owner and charter AFL owner, but there was also the sometime mismanagement and meddling with the Oilers and of course move to Tennessee, so his legacy to the history of the game in my view is mixed (and perhaps that is how many voters also feel). In term of the current mix of other contributors recently on the ballot and as serious contenders for a finalist slot and chance for election, I believe many others are more deserving of that consideration. Will be interesting to see with the selection of the 25 semi-finalists and then 15 finalist where he falls in terms of the contributors, especially considering the possible impact from his recent death.
Calvin Johnson is toying with being a first ballot HOFer. He boosted his receiving yards per game from 85 to 87.4 in one game. He is on pace for close to 1,900 receiving yards.
I mean to say he boosted his career average and he is on pace for 1,900 for single season.
yeah calvin johnson is a beast. and bud adams should get at least some consideration as part of the afl’s original owners
only a month away till the 25 semifinalist list will be announced
Modell and Adams are very similar in my opinion. They both are well respected within the confines of NFL circles, but the fan bases in the cities in which they were once owners would starkly disagree. Kraft and DeBartolo are more deserving in my opinion.
Bill W., agree with the Modell/Adams similarity. Modell might be seen as having done more in committee work settings though, which would give him an advantage over Adams.
DeBartolo unfortunately has some baggage with under-the-table behavior involving the salary cap and similar things which don’t help his candidacy. Kraft seems to be pretty much baggage-free as far as I can tell, and may have some committee work issues to help his case as well.
25 semifinalists coming up at the end of this month
announcement on Nov 27th
Do any of the DB’s have a chance of getting elected this year? I was thinking Aeneas Williams and John Lynch were both surefire HOFamers when they were playing, now they seem kind of forgotten.
I was thinking Williams or Charles Haley might get in this year as the fifth elected regular candidate. My guess is that Williams does get in, likely within the next five years.
John Lynch being a safety and not on the 00s All-Decade Team may delay him significantly or even kick him into the Senior Pool. Consider that Brian Dawkins will be coming up a few years from now and Ed Reed likely hasn’t much time left — and both may be seen as having stronger arguments at a position the voters don’t like much.
What about Sharper and Atwater. Atwater has been on the ballot for awhile and Sharper comes up in a couple of more years. I liked Dawkins but I liked Lynch a little better. I have always like the big hitters. That is probably why I feel Atwater shoud get in at some point.
Rodney Harrison possibly as well.
My guess is that Steve Atwater slides into the Senior Pool or is elected at the end of his regular eligibility. I can see good arguments for him, Lynch, Deron Cherry, Leroy Butler, Joey Browner, and Darren Woodson among retired and regularly-eligible safeties. Of these, am guessing Atwater and Lynch have the best chance of election, but far into the future if at all. Darren Sharper probably won’t fare any better then than the folks on this list, and I don’t think Rodney Harrison gets in.
Reed is pretty much a lock when he’s eligible and think both Dawkins and Polamalu likely get in after a solid wait.
Williams advanced into the final 10 for 2013 election so his time is coming very soon. Not so sure about any of the current safeties as until the HOF voters get over their stupid thinking that the position is not as worthy of the HOF it could be a long wait for them.
What is crazy is that I feel Williams gets in because he spent a solid portion of his career playing corner. If he was a safety his whole career with the same numbers he probably doesn’t get in. That’s crazy! I’m not sure why the safety position has been so devalued.
Just a guess, but the thinking re CB vs. safeties may be that CBs often have to do one-on-one coverage, which may be considered a significant skill set that safeties often don’t possess. The same thinking may be driving the idea that OTs possess skill sets centers don’t, which favors them in HoF discussions.
bachslunch- I am sure you are correct in your assumption, but that is being decide by guys who more than likely never played the game of football past junior high. If you are one of the eleven that are on the field and you are great at your position. That should not be held against you.
I tend to agree with Bill in that although one can debate the relative role or value of one position versus another (CB vs S or OT vs C), a full time starter should be considered for election to the HOF and not consider some positions as less qualified as the best players at a full time position can have a huge impact on the game regardless of what position they play, including S and C.
Todd Christensen died today at 57. He posted some great seasons during the 80s for a TE.
Announcement of 25 semifinalists on Weds Nov 20th at 10p on NFL Network
http://www.profootballhof.com/enshrinement/2013/11/12/the-first-cut/
any sleepers
Not so sure we will see much in the way of sleepers or surprises in the 25 semi-finalist list (and if there are any I doubt they make it further into the final 15). Returning 2013 semi-finalists plus several 1st time candidates should fill about 23 or so slots, anyone’s guess who fills the last 2.
Four first-year eligible candidates – linebacker Derrick Brooks, coach Tony Dungy, wide receiver Marvin Harrison, and tackle Walter Jones – are among the 25 semifinalists for the Pro Football Hall of Fame’s Class of 2014.
In addition to the first-year eligible nominees, two other previously eligible candidates, coach Jimmy Johnson and guard Steve Wisniewski, made it to the semifinalist list for the first time. Among the list of candidates who did make the cut were Art Modell and Steve Tasker, both of whom were semifinalists last year. In fact, Tasker has previously been a semifinalist six times.
http://www.profootballhof.com/enshrinement/2013/11/20/Football-Hall-of-Fame-2014-Semifinalists/
I did better than I thought on the predictions.
way to go brad who were the surprises
Thanks. I am not surprised by any. I didn’t do coaches/contributors. They are tricky.
Only minor surprise was seeing Tasker fall off the list, perhaps due to a K making the 25 and a P on the seniors list there just was not enough room or interest in another special team player? Hard to say, but perhaps his candidacy is in a free fall? Sabel and Modell likely also caught in a numbers game against the other coaches and contributors. I will wait until a new topic is posted on the semi-finalists before posting my prediction for the final 15 – for which I also do not think we will see much in the way of surprises.
We’ve put up a new post to reflect last night’s Hall of Fame semifinalist news. You can find it here: https://www.zoneblitz.com/2013/11/20/hall-fame-nominees-2014-reduced-25-semifinalists/
Thanks for stopping by.