Let me make clear right from the get go – I am not a draft expert. I do not sit around watching hours of film and, while I consider myself an educated fan, I’m not going to be able to give you any insight as far as the impact of 40 times, high jumps or cone drills as they relate to the success of future NFL players.
But I do read a lot of people who spend considerable time on that. So maybe I’ve got as good a third-hand handle on it as the next guy who does the same – and maybe I don’t. Nonetheless, following our Team Blogger Mock Draft, I threw together a quick mock using the info from our blogger friends and from other experts at various sites around the Interweb. Most other people’s mocks are probably better than mine – but given trades – and I expect there will be many this year – none of none of us have much more chance of being correct than anyone else out there throwing names at virtual paper.
But coordinating these two projects did lead to some observations. Here are a few:
- If QBs fall and position players go early Atlanta is screwed if they stay at six. I have them taking TE Eric Ebron to replace Tony Gonzalez. But that doesn’t address bigger needs on the offensive line or in the coveted pass rushing role. They could go Taylor Lewan, but my sense is he’s a notch below the linemen slotted for the top five.
- Good players are going to fall into the second round. Ra’Shede Hageman, Louis Nix and Stephon Tuitt are just three of the DL some have going early and some have dropping. There also is a wide spread on guard, with some liking David Yankey and others preferring Xavier Su’a-Filo. Nobody will hit on all of the first rounders, but I didn’t think any of the guys the bloggers picked in the first round were any more reaches than the guys I did – so, again, good players are going to fall in the second round.
- Holy wide receiver talent. You could probably eliminate everyone but the top wide receivers and the first one-third of the draft would leave with solid, serviceable-to-great NFL talent. Add in the tight ends and you might get halfway through the first round before some team said “no thanks, I’ll pass.”
- Who the hell knows what is going to happen with the QBs. Who goes first? High-upside-but-risky Blake Bortles? Gunslinger Johnny Football? Steady Teddy Bridgewater? I have Manziel going at seven and then Bridgewater and Bortles going in the middle of the round. Under that scenario, Carr falls to the second. Our Cleveland blogger, Peter Smith from Dawg Pound Daily, selected Carr number four overall. I don’t see either happening – though Cleveland is as likely to end up with Carr as anyone else, just not that early. Frankly, if the top four fall I think there will be maneuvering for those guys late in the first. The fifth-year option likely gets not only Carr drafted late in round one, but possibly a fifth – such as Zach Mettenberger or AJ McCarron – who may not truly be worthy of a first round pick, but who play a premium position.
- I really hope the NFL goes back to holding the draft in April – and does not expand it to four days as reportedly is under consideration. I love the draft. It’s really the official opening of the new season, for me. But the extra couple weeks of speculation has been nutty. And I am ready to just have it over with. So, here goes – our mock, our bloggers’ selections and my reasons – for our blogger friends’ thoughts, click over to the mock.
Team | Bloggers | Andy | Andy’s reasons |
Houston | Jadaveon Clowney | J. Clowney | Could be a trade, could be Mack based on recent reports, but I think if they make the pick they stick with Clowney. |
St. Louis | Khalil Mack | S. Watkins | I was intrigued by our blogger’s selection of two stud defensive players. I think Robinson or Watkins make more sense here if they keep the pick. Consensus seems to be Robinson, but I think the Rams need a bigger wideout to complement T. Austin. |
Jacksonville | Sammy Watkins | K. Mack | Another trade down possibility, but Jags could get best player in the draft. |
Cleveland | Derek Carr | G. Robinson | Reports have surfaced saying they will take Manziel. Others have said they have no interest in Manziel. I’m going with the possibility of taking an elite talent on the OL here with maneuvering later for a QB. |
Oakland | Blake Bortles | J. Matthews | If it’s true they aren’t interested in QB, an OL prospect makes sense. |
Atlanta | Greg Robinson | E. Ebron | This is probably the most likely pick in the draft to be traded. If any QBs go in the top five, Atlanta is probably fine, but if they fall, the Falcons are left likely without a pass rusher or a top OL. Could go Lewan, but I think Ebron replaces Gonzalez and adds yet another weapon to a solid offensive arsenal. |
Tampa Bay | Ted Bridgewater | J. Manziel | McCown isn’t long-term and Glennon didn’t impress, so one of the QBs goes here. |
Minnesota | Johnny Manziel | D. Dennard | I’m buying those saying Vikes go defense first and wait on QB for round two. Could be any number of linebackers or DBs, but Dennard’s physical play would go well in a division full of big WRs. |
Buffalo | Jake Matthews | T. Lewan | I was initially thinking WR Evans, but looking around it appears the consensus is OL help. |
Detroit | Eric Ebron | K. Fuller | Couple offensive skill players they wanted, but Fuller fills even bigger DB need. Could be Evans, but guess is CB Fuller or Gilbert. |
Tennessee | Anthony Barr | A. Barr | Might have seen this pick mocked to the Titans more than any other pick in the draft. |
NY Giants | Mike Evans | M. Evans | Think the Giants would prefer to go OT but the big WR isn’t a bad consolation prize. |
St. Louis | Darqueze dennard | J. Gilbert | Liked blogger Grisak grabbing two elite D studs. I say WR w/ first pick, but best CB available here. |
Chicago | Aaron Donald | A. Donald | Stock seems to be rising. Comparisons to John Randle? If hype is true, likely goes higher than this – maybe to division rival Minnesota. |
Pittsburgh | Justin Gilbert | C. Mosley | Wanted Gilbert or similar CB. Settle for another top notch defender to bring youth to defense |
Dallas | Taylor Lewan | H. Clinton-Dix | Cowboys badly need help throughout defense. Talks of trading up for or waiting for Manziel to land here seem misplaced. Likely wait here for best defensive player available and this guy is generally considered the best safety in draft |
Baltimore | Ha Ha Clinton Dix | J. Ward | Could go OL, but safety is bigger need. |
NY Jets | Brandin Cooks | O. Beckham Jr. | Could go Brandin Cooks, but definitely need to add skill players on offense. |
Miami | Zach Martin | Z. Martin | Can’t see a scenario where this isn’t offensive line after last year’s soap opera. |
Arizona | Ryan Shazier | B. Bortles | A lot of reports link Cards to Carr, but those have Bortles gone before now. Probably is, but if the QBs don’t get picked early, Arizona could have their pick between three of the top four. |
Green Bay | CJ Mosley | C. Pryor | Could go linebacker here (Shazier?), but safety is also a need. |
Philadelphia | Marqise Lee | B. Cooks | Could go Marqise Lee, but likely have to get a big-time WR to fill the DeSean Jackson role. |
Kansas City | Calvin Pryor | M. Lee | Several directions Chiefs could go, but Smith needs another weapon |
Cincinnati | Kyle Fuller | J. Verrett | This team doesn’t have a ton of must-fill needs. I’ve mostly seen CB and LB mocked to the Bengals. Verrett is a solid choice. |
San Diego | Jason Verrett | B. Roby | Could go DT Nix, but defensive backfield help is imperative |
Cleveland | Odell Beckham | T. Bridgewater | Didn’t think he could fall this far, but scenarios do exist. Could go Carr. |
New Orleans | Jordan Matthews | K. Ealy | Could go WR. Could go DE Ford. Could go LB. Tough one to call. |
Carolina | Cyrus Kouandjio | C. Kouandjio | Ken from our mock draft is right. WRs aren’t in good shape, but OL needs big help too after Gross retired. Coin flip to me. |
New England | Dominique Easley | L. Nix | Could go R. Hageman, but likely DT. |
San Francisco | Kelvin Benjamin | K. Benjamin | This is a deep WR draft. I wasn’t sure who to go with. Then Al turned in the 6’5 guy’s name and I liked it |
Denver | Bradley Roby | R. Shazier | Athletic LB to help beef up the D |
Seattle | David Yankey | X. Su’A-Filo | Could use a WR, but many are gone. This has been popular Seahawks pick in a few mocks lately |
Trades are the thing that can really mess up everyone’s drafts. Teams that are most likely to trade include teams that don’t have many picks (trade down to get more) or teams like the 49ers with a lot of picks (package them up for someone you really want). We also don’t know how exactly the teams have set their boards (and whether a bad interview has completely wiped someone off).
Thankfully the unknowns make the draft interesting, and I’m hoping the NFL Network sticks with its no-spoiler idea before the pick is announced by the commissioner.
Yep, I didn’t have the brain power to start trying to project trades or to try to corral trades for the blogger mock. There’s little actual point to me in taking mocks too seriously other than in learning more about the players. There’s too much movement most of the time for them to be anywhere near accurate.