Calvin Johnson reportedly has informed friends and coaches that he will retire after nine seasons in the NFL rather
Photo by Kevin810, via Wikipedia
than rejoin Detroit for the 2016 season.
While his quiet, low-key approach to announcing the end of his career would be fitting for the way he acted when he played, I hope this is not the case. Johnson has spent the last decade being one of the very few reasons to tune in to watch the Lions.
If he is, however, serious about stepping away, he would first become eligible for the Hall of Fame in 2021. I think it’s just short of inarguable that he gets in eventually.
I don’t think he should have to wait.
You can certainly qualify Megatron’s impact by saying it’s a passing era, no question. He’s played in the most pass-heavy era of NFL football on mostly bad teams that had to throw the ball. Did that inflate his numbers? Perhaps. But I would argue that Johnson was also part of the reason Detroit should have been throwing the ball all along.
Let’s look at some other accolades he has compiled over the years. In nine seasons, Johnson was selected for six Pro Bowls – each of the last six seasons. He’s been selected first-team All-Pro by the Associated Press three times, from 2011 through 2013 – and during that stretch, I think you’d be hard pressed to find a more dominant player in the league at any position. During that time he AVERAGED 101 catches, 1,712 yards and 11 TDs – and the average TDs was pulled down by the freakish 2012 season during when he scored just five times – despite catching 122 passes. He was tackled that season at the one-yard line five times and inside the five-yard line eight times.
It was at the time of that ridiculous 2012 season during which we looked at Johnson’s numbers and compared them favorably with the trajectories that all-time greats such as Jerry Rice and Randy Moss enjoyed during their earliest seasons.
Johnson’s numbers have dipped a bit the last three seasons as he has endured a number of injuries of varying severity. And during that time he still has averaged 81 catches and 1,261 yards, while totaling 29 TDs. He’s missed five games during that stretch and played the decoy role in a handful of others. So this guy can clearly still play at a high level.
Few have expressed that this guy does not belong in the Hall of Fame. Some have said the relatively short nine-year span of his career could force him to wait awhile. I submit that he should not have to wait at all.
It’s my belief that his career in nine years eclipses those of some of the league’s all-time greats, some of those who were just recently enshrined in Canton. A few years back when the group of Andre Reed, Cris Carter and Tim Brown kept splitting the vote, we did a comparison of the three. Our own conclusion – subjective as it was – was that all three belonged in Canton. Here are some pertinent stats:
| Brown | Carter | Reed | Megatron | |
| Seasons | 17 | 16 | 16 | 9 |
| Pro Bowls | 9 | 8 | 7 | 6 |
| 1st Team AP All-Pro | 0 | 2 | 0 | 3 |
| Catches | 1,094 | 1,101 | 951 | 731 |
| Yards | 14,934 | 13,899 | 13,198 | 11,619 |
| TDs | 100 | 130 | 87 | 83 |
| 1,000 YD seasons | 9 | 8 | 4 | 7 |
| 10 TD seasons | 2 | 6 | 1 | 4 |
Some will argue it’s a different era. That’s true. But the Pro Bowls and All-Pro numbers are peer versus peer. Megatron went to Pro Bowls during six of his nine seasons – a 67 percent rate, compared with the other three making it a combined 50 percent. He was first-team All-Pro three times in nine years, a 33 percent rate – the peers in this comparison made that list two times combined in their grand total of 49 seasons.
Okay, so that’s just three guys. How about overall? He fares quite well in that realm of stats, as well. He ranks 27th all-time in receiving yards, sixth among players Pro Football Reference currently considers active. Each of the five ahead of him – Reggie Wayne (who recently announced that he will not play again), Andre Johnson, Steve Smith, Larry Fitzgerald and Anquan Boldin – have played at least three seasons more than Johnson. At another 1,000 yards per season, for three more years, Megatron would ascend, most likely, comfortably into the top 10.
Similarly with career TDs, Johnson ranks 22nd all-time, third active. He trails Fitzgerald and Antonio Gates. Assume a similar rate of nine TDs per season for three more years and Johnson, again, ascends comfortably into the top 10.
Three more seasons like his most recent trio of campaigns doesn’t likely catapult Johnson into the top 10 of all-time receptions, but it probably takes him into the top 20 – not bad, again, for a guy who has played for some bad-to-putrid teams during his career.
Again, I’m not thoroughly convinced Megatron is done playing. I selfishly hope he’s not because, as I said, he’s been one of my favorite players to watch during the last nine years. But if he is done, he deserves to make it into the Hall of Fame quickly – the results he put up while playing for a bad team on which he often was the only legitimate weapon are astoundingly good. Calvin Johnson takes a backseat to no one.
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I voted a 6 to 10 year wait and I was being generous. I agree he belongs eventually, but longevity is important enough that there’s no way he merits first ballot induction, considering he wasn’t THAT dominant (not close to Don Hutson dominant).
In fact it’s easy to argue that Sterling Sharpe accomplished more in 7 years than Calvin Johnson did in 9. Sharpe led the NFL in triple crown metrics (receptions, yards, touchdowns) 6 times, while Johnson led in those metrics 4 times. Sharpe actually won a single season triple crown in 1992, becoming one of only a tiny handful of men to accomplish that dominant feat (Johnson never did).
Sharpe made 5 Pro Bowls in his 7 years, missing twice, while Johnson made 6 Pro Bowls in 9 years, missing three times. They were both first team All Pros 3 years, though Sharpe did that in fewer years.
Sharpe had over 100 receptions in 2 different seasons, setting the NFL single season record twice, and led the league a third year with 90 (and posted a non leading 94 in yet a fourth year). Johnson only topped 100 receptions in one season (that great 122 catch year that skewed the average you mentioned), and only topped 90 one other year, despite playing in a significantly more stat inflated era than Sharpe did.
Sharpe mostly played on mediocre teams too. Like Johnson his Packers only made the playoffs twice.
Despite all that Sharpe has been waiting a very long time to even be seriously considered for the Hall of Fame. It would be strange if Calvin Johnson was raced in real fast.
I should add their top 5 TD seasons:
Sterling Sharpe
1. 18 (1994), NFL leading
2. 13 (1992), NFL leading
3. 12 (1989)
4. 11 (1993)
5. 6 (1990)
Calvin Johnson
1. 16 (2011)
2. 12 (2008), NFL leading
3. 12 (2010)
4. 12 (2013)
5. 9 (2015)
Johnson does edge him out on yards, leading the NFL twice to Sharpe’s once, but Sharpe beats him on most other things, and even on yards Sharpe ranked in the top 5 four times, just as many seasons as Johnson did in a longer career. In fact Johnson’s average ranking in yards was 12.4 while Sharpe’s was 10.2, so not a big difference in era adjusted terms.
Overall Sterling Sharpe was the more dominant player, and I think his great 7 year career should be considered roughly as Canton worthy as Johnson’s 9 year career.
Rasputin, Thank you for the comments. Well thought out. I disagree on a couple of points – first, I do think Johnson was “that dominant.” It’s as much an eye test thing as a numbers thing – he just did things you rarely see from wideouts. And second – and I did not argue this point well or effectively, if at all, in my post: I’m not sure we should consider nine years “short.” It’s certainly shorter than Rice, Carter, Reed, Brown, et al. But I don’t think it’s a ridiculously short amount of time.
I am intrigued by your Sharpe research. I was actually thinking about him the other day – I’ve seen his name mentioned in other forums as someone who has been overlooked and I would agree he merits more discussion than he has received. In addition to the numbers you cite, he also had the “eye test” factor I mentioned above. As a Vikings fan I had plenty of opportunities to watch both. Johnson’s accomplishments are fresher in mind, obviously, but I have plenty of memories of Sharpe destroying Minnesota’s sundays. Thanks for the comments.
The Don Hutson reference is an interesting one, also. Certainly he was the most dominant of his time. But was that because he was so much better than everyone else or was it because nobody had a clue how to defense that kind of offense back in the day? I honestly don’t have an answer to that question – I haven’t read enough on the subject – though I am guessing it would be more difficult for Hutson to be as dominant in today’s era as he was back then.
The “old timers” and NFL historians speak very highly of Hutson and his worthiness to still be considered one of the top WRs of all time, whether it was was a function of being better than everyone else or the evolutioon of the passing offense is hard to say (Would Montana had been a HOF QB in any other offensive system?). For anyone with an understanding and appreciation of the game earlier than the 1980s or 1990s, Hutson, Berry and Alworth often appear on their top ten WRs lists, instead of those that simply base list on numbers which are inflated in this era compared to pre 1990 (the first 60+ years of the NFL!).
As to the HOF chances for Megatron, I only have two words: Terrell Davis
Unless I’m misunderstanding, I disagree with this immensely. Megatron played nine great or close to great seasons. Davis was fabulous for four seasons, but only played more than half the games during those four. I’m not necessarily anti-Davis, but the head-to-head comparison isn’t close.
My comment on Hutson wasn’t meant to denigrate him, just I guess to say his case illustrates the difficulty of comparing between eras – especially the early years and the current ones. Would he have been great? Possibly. Maybe probably. But he also benefited from being the first or one of the first star receivers during the birth of the passing game – before anyone had really figured out how to defense it. That’s all. I’ve never studied him specifically, but I’m not doubting his dominance at the time. And if people with more background on him feel he’d still be relevant today I have no reason to doubt them.
Megatron had 3 great seasons (1st team All Pro); TD had 3 great seasons (1st team All Pro + MVP, 2SBs, SB MVP, All Decade Team)
TD is still not in HOF, my suggestion only was that Megatron is looking at similar wait – the HOF voters really dowgrade short careers.
As to Hudson I did not mean to suggest that you denigrated him, just the point that yes it is very hard to compare players at a WR across several decades of NFL history. I just get annoyed at people (not you) who generate their top 10 lists that end up dominated by players from the last 20 years, forgetting about the other 70+ years of NFL history.
Re T.D. – he had the three great seasons but then had only one other even very good one. Johnson had another 4-5 very good ones. We may disagree as to what constitutes “short.” I don’t think nine seasons is all that short. Certainly shorter than many great ones, but not all that short. Davis has seven seasons, but the last three were all eight games or fewer. That’s where I think the comparison falls apart a bit. Again – the idea of Davis’ candidacy is growing on me, but I’d still put the two in different categories. No biggie – we can agree to disagree, if need be.
As for Hutson, fair enough. I agree with your main point. I just wanted to make sure it was clear that I wasn’t in any way putting him down. Sounds like we’re on the same page there.
I did a bit of a deeper dive into Sharpe’s career this morning after reading your comments. I was never necessarily against his candidacy – just hadn’t studied it enough to have a strong opinion. I may be coming around to Rasputan’s way of thinking (On being pro-Sharpe’s candidacy, not in weakening my thoughts on Johnson). Sharpe was still young and his career was in the midst of a HUGE ascension as Favre was gaining experience. In addition to the numbers Rasputin cited this morning, I went and read the boxscores for the 1993-94 playoff games Green Bay played. Sharpe and Favre tried dual-handedly to carry that team further than it really deserved to go that year – 220-plus yards and four TDs in two games. It’s really a shame Sharpe’s career came to an early end. He really was looking at the end like a man among boys.
My feeling is that Megatron gets in but waits a good while. The comparison to Sterling Sharpe is more apt than not, and kind of sobering given that Sharpe hasn’t gotten the least HoF sniff and probably won’t until well down the road as a Senior if at all. Sharpe’s postseason profile is 3/5/none in a seven year career, while Johnson is 3/6/???? in a nine year career, and both have about the same amount of “black ink” (times leading the league in a major category). Nine is more than seven for sure, but still a pretty short career nonetheless by post-60s HoF standards.
I have no problem with TD or Megatron getting it, just that is is apparent to me that the road TD has taken (and not yet arrived) is the same Megatron is facing, likely 5-7+ year process.
Besides his 3 all pro seasons I would certainly not describe Calvin as having “another 4-5 very good ones): 2010, 2014 and 2015 were pretty average in terms of this passing era, unless you are counting 70 rec, 1000 yard seasons as “very good”. .
The season you reference is 2014. He missed three games due to injury and by most accounts played basically a decoy role in two others, but I’ll concede – very good may be a stretch for that year.
In 2008, he went 78-1331-12, which was good for fifth in yards, 20th in receptions and tied for first in TDs.
In 2010, he went 77-1120-12, which was ninth in yards, tied for 15th in receptions and tied for second in TDs.
In 2015, he went 88-1214-9, which was 11th in receptions, 10th in yards and tied for 14th in TDs.
He probably rightfully was not All Pro those seasons, but I’d classify those as pretty good. Maybe I estimated one too high on “very good” seasons, but I’d still call those good to very good seasons.
To add to Andy’s point, Calvin Johnson was also performing consistently against double-teams and without a supporting running game. Also, he has had inconsistent quarterback play throughout his career. I personally like the Lions and Stafford, but they can easily drive a man to drink.
I see 15th and 20th in receptions as average or good seasons, certainly not very good orf HOF caliber. Again I am not suggesting Calvin Johnson not be elected to the HOF, just that the overall quality of his entire 9 year career is going to be an issue in terms of 1st ballot and likely 2-5 years wait to election. TDs career is shorter but the MVP, 2 SBs, SB MVP represent quality CJ does not have and yet TD is still waiting.
Don’t you have to weigh the stats in their entirety? 15th in receptions, but ninth in yards and tied for 2nd in TDs. 20th in receptions, but 5th in yards and tied for 1st in TDs. Hugely productive both seasons. It’s clear you disagree. That’s fine. But I’m standing by my case.
productive yes, but very good or HOF quality – I doubt.
I guess I have an issue that whenever a very good player retires the media and public jump to statements about their HOF case, especially “well of course he is 1st ballot HOFer”, when in fact yes they may be HOFer but not all HOF worthy players are going to be 1st ballot and that is not a negative judgment on their career or HOF candidancy.
I definitely agree on the second part (even though I sense you think I’m part of the problem here). I especially find it amusing when (Pick your favorite team)’s fans say So-and-so is an obvious Hall of Famer without looking in any way, subjective or objective, at the person’s overall accomplishments or those of his peers. “If (Player X) isn’t enshrined as soon as he’s eligible there shouldn’t even be a Hall of Fame…”
Re: Johnson, I appreciate the debate. I respect your argument, even if we disagree on the final conclusion. Thank you for the comments.
No I do not think you are the problem as least you and many other posters here at least think through their ideas as to HOFers and understand the debates and issues, especially that every HOF can be a 1st ballot selection. I also tend to look the HOF voters and trends in voting rather than just my views and opinions – more of who is likely to get elected rather than who I feel should be elected. Just a different way at looking at the HOF elections and no judgment of others who tend to pull for their favorite teams and players – as long as they not not fixate on 1st ballot HOFers or ignore the weaknesses that may delay player HOF elections, especially at the expense of other candidates. And I have a soft spot for finalists who appear on the ballot year after year deserving but waiting for election and them having to endure the attention and disappointment. That is why for 2016 I am personally pulling for Greene, Harrison and Pace (and Dungy to some extent) .