And they’ve mostly been proud days. Manning has never been the best QB in the league, but he’s probably gone back-and-forth between the second- and third-tier at times, excelling, of course, twice on postseason runs that ended up with New York upsetting New England to win two of its Lombardi trophies.
The question, then, becomes does Eli follow in brother Peyton’s footsteps and try to find another team to hook up with at the end of his career for one or two more runs at postseason glory? Or does he decide that 16 seasons is enough. And, if he chooses the latter, will we be hearing from him again in five or 10 years as he prepares for a speech in Canton?
He’s a little bit of a tough one to assess. Does he have the counting stats? Perhaps. If he retired now, he’d do so as the seventh-ranked QB all-time in passing yardage, though barring injury, Philip Rivers likely will pass him up this season.
That’s impressive, though perhaps slightly less so when you factor in the direction the league has gone during his time in it. I’m 44-years-old and, of the top 12 all-time passing yardage leaders, only one (Fran Tarkenton, number 12 all-time) played a majority of his career before I was consciously watching the game. So, to some degree, he owes his spot toward the top of this list to a pass-heavy era.
Passing touchdowns? Same situation. He’s eighth, with Aaron Rodgers breathing down his neck. But, again, only Tarkenton remains in the top 10 on this list for QBs who were before I started watching – a random time frame, for sure, but one chosen primarily due to that roughly coinciding with the time in which the league started building its rules around a more passing-friendly game. These lists are now populated less, in my opinions, by all-time greats and more by solid-to-really-good players who, in some cases, are more beneficiary of the era than all-timers.
So, his status is a bit up in the air with respect to counting stats. How about postseason honors? Well, the strongest argument on his behalf is the two big prizes. He led to Super Bowl championship winners and that is a major accomplishment, no doubt. But look no further than Jim Plunkett to see that being at the helm for two Super Bowl wins doesn’t guarantee your place in the Hall of Fame.
While I like Plunkett’s Oakland reclamation story, I think his omission from the Hall is just. He simply didn’t put up enough results even during those seasons, not to mention during the rest of his career, to get in. His case rests solely on the Super Bowl wins. Eli’s case is stronger than that. But is it strong enough?
Let’s start with Pro Bowls. This one shocked me a bit. Having been in the league 16 seasons during an era when Pro Bowl berths are handed out like candy, I thought he’d have racked up a bunch. But … four. Not bad, but certainly not standout.
What about first-team AP All Pro Awards. Hmm. None. This is a big red flag for me. One regularly talked about factor in determining someone’s Hall of Fame status is whether or not the player was, for any period of time, considered to be the best or among the best in the league at his position. This rather light 4/0 resume is light. No first-team AP awards isn’t necessarily a disqualifier. Troy Aikman didn’t have any and he got in. But he had six Pro Bowls and led three Super Bowl winning teams, so, even with lesser counting stats, he’s arguably got a better case than Eli.
Then you have some random stats and talking points that have come up. Despite two Super Bowl winning teams, his overall W/L record is a pedestrian 116-116. His postseason record is 8-4, but his postseason record outside the Super Bowl runs is 0-4.
And if coming up big in clutch moments outside the postseason counts for much, look at this gem NFL Research came up with last week. This isn’t a major factor in my eyes, but it is an interesting nugget.
Eli Manning is 0-43 when trailing by 18+ points as a starter.
Daniel Jones is 1-0 when trailing by 18+ points. #Giants
— NFL Research (@NFLResearch) September 23, 2019
So, what, if anything, does he have going for his Hall case beyond the two Super Bowl rings?
I heard someone on sports talk radio talking in the days following Eli’s benching that he deserved to get in based on how well he has handled being the face of the organization in the tough market of New York. I’ll grant him “solid guy” points for that, but … is handling a tough crowd and media presence with relative class really something voters are going to factor to whether or not a guy belongs in Canton? I have my doubts, but … maybe.
What else? Though the first impression he made spurning the Chargers when he was initially drafted there, he has generally conducted himself quite well, counting among his awards a 2016 Walter Payton Man of the Year.
And … he is a Manning. Peyton, Eli and father Archie have become one of football’s first families. They seem like relatively likeable people and, in this day and age, maybe that should matter some. I suspect it will matter a fair amount.
Conclusion? I’ve set up a poll to see what the consensus is on Eli’s candidacy. Personally, I think his overall body of work falls short of what it SHOULD take to get into the Hall. I will respect the opinion of – but disagree with – the camp who will say he should be in solely on the two Super Bowls alone. But I will say this: He won’t be a first-ballot guy, but as much as I think he belongs in the Hall of Very Good, I think the intangible factors of his rings, his family, his solid good guy makeup and his presence in the league’s largest market will, ultimately, get him in, whether I believe he should be or not.
His case will be one of the most interesting and debating when he starts to appear on the ballot. Again as we always note it will also largely depend on others on the ballot, especially the wave of post 2000 QBs who will also be eligible around the same time.
The debate is a classic “tug of war” between the stats (or analytics) crowd and the “place in history” side. Its clear that from an individual season view, Eli was never a consistent top 5 QB in the league during his career seasons. No all pro selections, or other season awards or leading in any QB stats are evidence for that fact and hurt his case-the 4 pro bowls is a weaker accomplishment especially in this era of massive replacements and alternate selections. 3x was in top 5 in season passing yards, and 4x in top 5 in season passing TDs, never led league in a major passing season stat (only once as 2nd in season TDs).
In a current 16 yr career, 7x seasons 4000y+ and 3x 30+ TDs – again given the era he played that’s really not a very impressive record. But enough years and numbers to currently sit at 6th in attempts and completions, 7th in yards and 8th in TDs-but likely to fall down those leader boards before he appears on ballot as other pass his numbers.
But let’s face it, his case for election to the Hall will really be based on how the voters view two incredible playoff runs (especially 2011) and of course his 2x SB MVPs, both time beating the historical and GOATS BillB and TomB Patriots, including ending their undefeated season. If one is to view those as historical events in the timeline of the NFL-and I think one can make that case-and looking at the history of the league since 2000 one could argue that those make him eligible to be elected to the Hall. And no I don’t think the Manning name or playing in NY are really going to be much of a factor.
Do I think it is absolutely necessary that he be elected? NO
Do I think that if elected that it is unwarranted and somehow “waters down” the honor of the Hall? NO
Are there better candidates for election YES
When he appears on the ballot will there be more deserving candidates YES-very likely
Are there better QBs from his era more deserving? OH YES (at least several: Brady, BenR, Brees, Rodgers, ….perhaps Rivers, Wilson and others TBD)
Is he better and more deserving the Rivers (also draft class of 2004)? HMMMMM thats a very interesting question, and if both overlap on the ballot, which is very likely, that Eli debate gets even more interesting.
In my opinion, Eli will not have an easy or smooth path to election, but with 20 years on the modern candidate ballot, and given the extra attention and credit QBs get for winning, especially SBs (like it or not that is a factor), he will someday be elected to the Hall.
(and I look forward to same debate on social media again when he actually retires, and then again every year once eligible!!)
I concur with everything that paul says 100%
I don’t think he belongs in the HoF. His stats are less than stellar as you lay out, and even his two SB runs were on such historically middling teams that it’s hard to be too impressed by them. They each hit a hot streak for a few games at just the right time. Eli was a good QB who had a few great moments.
After he beat NE for a second SB Championship, I thought Eli was a lock for the HOF…only Tommy Thompson, Plunkett and Simms have been on two time champions without making the Hall, but Eli hasn’t done anything since. What, three winning seasons since 2011 ? His overall won loss record, should not put him in the HOF. At least Plunkett was a late bloomer. Eli has regressed too much.
Tobin Rote and Jack Kemp were two-time Championship winners as well. I wouldn’t put either of them in the HoF, either.
Nice to hear from you Bachslunch…You’re always good at stirring the pot !! We need more of that at Talkoffamenetwork/Maven site…Hardly anyone comments on there anymore. Hope you read John Turneys site at Pro Football Journal as well…
Thanks, Brian! Just went back into the ToF site earlier today and stuck the proverbial spoon in. Good to be back.
Yes, I also go to John Turney’s site, though I rarely comment. He’s got some terrific articles, and I have a lot of respect for his film study ability given his posts. The more detail the better on that — it demystifies things. Ken Crippen has a really good film study site also, though it hasn’t been updated in a while.
OK with his retirement set for Friday let the debate begin! (or here, let it continue) or perhaps we should just wait until fall of 2024 when actually eligible??
lets wait till 2024 paul
Agreed!! As much as this is fun just look forward to revisiting again in fall of 2024, 2025, 2026, 2027, 2028, 2028, 2030….. LOL
100% i concur
Eli Manning 0/4 does not feel like a HOF QB to me. I don’t know about his stats but he sure missed the Playoffs a lot and I think many times he was the reason they weren’t in the mix. He seemed way too inconsistent over his career. I really wanted to root for him for beating those Patriot Teams and going up against my least favorite team regularly. IMO, it was all set up for Eli Manning to be a HOF QB after his 2nd SB win than his career feel pretty flat. He had a shot of life in his game for a couple years when OBJ came on the scene. Eli probably gets in because of that and being so popular in the media center of the universe.
If Joe Flacco somehow got it going and led the Broncos for his 2nd SB win would he make the HOF? He’s got good stats. Seems like most QB’s have good stats nowadays with the game favoring offense. Andy Dalton and Matt Ryan’s stats probably look really good. Few QB stats looked good in the 70’s. lol
I really thought Eli could go to another team and try to contribute, if not start alot, for a potential champion. I think thats the only way he gets in the Hall.
Despite being a tough QB with the championships that I covet, he just wasnt consistent enough and regressed to much for me.
Without championships, I wouldnt put in Ryan or Rivers as well. Another championship could help Flacco, but I doubt he gets it, and he has regressed as well.
Brees, Big Ben, Rodgers and possibly Wilson, will get in, I believe.
this where surprignly i agree with both tony and brian 100% that eli is not a hall of famer for the reasons that mainly tony and brian stated and this is a crazy thought eli’s retirement is making me reconsider ken anderson’s case again
Tom Brady, Peyton Manning, Kurt Warner, Aaron Rodgers. Drew Brees, Eli???
Than they should select Steve McNair and Donavon McNabb who were more talented and winners?
Roger Staubach, Fran Tarkington, Bob Griese, Ken Stabler, Terry Bradshaw, Dan Fouts and even the maligned Joe Namath had the talent and savvy in their primes that made me think they would likely win every time they suited up. Sorry, I’ve never felt confident when I watched Eli. He’s not a HOFer IMO. The same goes for Ken Anderson. They feel like the same sort of player to me. Neither one was a rah-rah leader.
What does a rah rah leader have to do with the hall of fame
Do we hold it against Philip Rivers 0/8 for not having an All Pro Selection in the era of Brady and Manning? Brees only has 1 but 13 PB’s . I guess if you look at it like Eli Manning doesn’t deserve into the HOF with his two SB wins and MVP’s than Rivers probably doesn’t either. I for one wouldn’t put that much value on 4 PB’s.
I’m OK saying Rivers should be denied which is a new stance for me. I hope they tighten up over there at the HOF. lol
Just an observation Robert no individual value although I do think having a show of a little fire from your QB can help the Team. I think HC Tom Coughlin had enough for the whole team. lol Anyone know how long Coughlin has to wait for HOF? He hasn’t been a HC since 2015.
TonyP, I think Coughlin might not get into Canton either. If he does, he might wait awhile.
Despite the two SBs and success with the Jags in the 90s, he got worse the longer he was with either team. The Lombardi discipline approach wore thin on the players, especially a talent like Tiki Barber and he had I think, only one winning season from the 2012 SB to what 2015 ?
If coaches end up with their own category (which is current speculation) over the long term that will open up opportunities for plenty of coaches for consideration
Yes Coughlin is deserving but think who is ahead of him …
Parker
Flores
Shanahan
Seifert
Holmgren
Alot of coaches with Vermeil, Shaughnessy and Coryell and others in the mix
Yep and Cowher election creates justification and path for many coaches