The Pro Football Hall of Fame voters narrowed the list of contenders for 2017 enshrinement to 15 modern-era candidates Tuesday.
They are:
K Morten Andersen
T Tony Boselli
WR Isaac Bruce
Coach Don Coryell
RB Terrell Davis
S Brian Dawkins
G Alan Faneca
T Joe Jacoby
CB Ty Law
C Kevin Mawae
S John Lynch
WR Terrell Owens
DE Jason Taylor
RB LaDainian Tomlinson
QB Kurt Warner
They join Senior candidate Kenny Easley and Contributor candidates Jerry Jones, who owns the Cowboys, and Paul Tagliabue, who succeeded Pete Rozelle as Commissioner in 1989.
The finalist group includes 12 of the 15 we predicted it would in March. Most surprising to me is the continued strength behind the candidacy of Don Coryell, not because I don’t think he’s deserving, but because he’s been out of the game so long. Fervor for his election has seemed to grow just within the last few years.
While I have no issue with Coryell, I am disappointed that it seems as though his momentum has come at the expense of the case of Cowboys Coach Jimmy Johnson, who I thought should have been elected before Tony Dungy. Johnson did not make the final 15.
Other observations:
- No Edgerrin James – for the time being, it looks like Terrell Davis has more movement for his induction than James does.
- Isaac Bruce is a finalist and Torry Holt is not. Bruce did have more catches (1,024-920), yards (15,208-13,382) and TDs (91-74) than Holt, but it took Bruce 16 years to accumulate his stats while Holt reached his in 11. Plus, Holt had seven Pro Bowls and one first-team Associated All Pro award, along with one second-team AP honor, while Bruce has just four Pro Bowls and he never was named to the AP’s first team. It’s always seemed to me that Holt had the stronger case.
- Two safeties are still alive. While I’m disappointed Steve Atwater’s case has slipped another year or more into the future, Brian Dawkins and John Lynch both have strong cases. There is a logjam awaiting, if the voters can’t start getting stars at this position enshrined.
I think the selections this year are a lot more wide open than they have been in recent years. Tomlinson and Owens seem like no brainers. And I’d really like to see one of the safeties – Dawkins would be my first choice – inducted. Otherwise there are probably eight legit candidates you could see voters deciding to support and none would be a bad choice.
Who would you like to see make the final cut?
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1, Andy i would rather see jimmy johnson get in the hall of fame than don coryell
2. You did Bring up a great point about holt and bruce however i would take issac for now over torrie holt
3, I was very Very Shocked that Tony Boselli shot up to the finalist list already
4, Im Still not sold on warner can you blame me
Tomlinson is the only slam dunk. Warner’s 3rd year as a finalist and with no Favre on the ballot this time I think this is his year.
The other 3 spots come down to 5 names for me. Coryell and Jacoby appear to be carrying a lot of momentum. Jacoby only has 2 more chances as a Modern Era candidate and jumped suddenly into the Top 10 last year.
If they go with those two with LT and Warner that only leaves one spot for Owens or Dawkins/Lynch. My predictions haven’t even looked at a defensive player, so that has me thinking TO misses out again.
The safety backlog is getting as long as the Wide Receiver list as Atwater and D.Woodson would both be worthy finalists. The next few years will also see Reed (2019) and Polamalu (2020) become eligible. Then you have the CBs with Ty Law breaking through this time with Barber, Bailey and C.Woodson to come soon. I think they have to start electing at least one DB per year like they have been doing recently at WR. Dawkins was better but I think Lynch is the one that gets elected next month.
My Ballot:
Tomlinson
Warner
Jacoby
Owens
Dawkins
My prediction:
Swap TO and Dawkins for Coryell and Lynch.
Coryell
Lynch
Tomlinson
Warner
Jacoby
I do not think voters will swap in Dawkins for Lynch as they seem to devalue the Safety position and with Lynch moving into final 10 in 2016 he is positioned for election (and I do not think Dawkins is that much better of a candidate than Lynch to justify a switch, yes Dawkins is deserving and will get in the PFHOF soon, just not in his first year). I feel really good about my picks of LT, Warner and Jacoby, but will concede that TD or TO could take place of Coryell. There is always one “surprise” every year (well especially to the public and media) and feel that Coryell has seen his support increase and trending to election, so hence my prediction there. I think having LT on the ballot will delay TD election until 2018 and that since voters did not even move TO into final 10 in 2016 they will still hold his past against him for another few years, but he will make the final 10 in 2017 (Moss will be first ballot WR in 2018). And failing to yet again elect TO the voters will be widely scorned by the general public and media.
A couple surprises: Edgerrin James didn’t make the cut, Tony Boselli did despite his very short career, Ty Law essentially replaced Steve Atwater in the finals.
My guess on the voting:
1st cuts: Taylor, Mawae, Law, Boselli, Bruce
2nd cuts: Coryell, Faneca, Dawkins, Owens, Andersen
Elected: Davis, Tomlinson, Lynch, Jacoby, Warner, plus all the Senior/Contributor candidates.
Least sure of Davis, could be Coryell, Andersen, or Owens in descending order of likelihood.
Looks like the regular candidate end of the line for Kenn, Mecklenburg, Craig, and Browner as none of them made the finals and have either run out of time or nearly so. And while Atwater has five years left, his disappearance from the finals suggests he’d have to wait until all of Lynch, Dawkins, Reed, and Polamalu get in — and that’s probably cutting it too close. A shame.
Another issue. While I’m okay with Joe Jacoby (3/4/80s) being elected, it’s very unfortunate to see Mike Kenn (3/5/none and a longer productive career) apparently headed off to the Senior pool (not to mention that Marvin Powell at 3/5/none with a marginally shorter career than Jacoby is already there). I guess lots of “Hogs” PR baloney and membership with a better squad really does make a difference. Barring something showing that Jacoby was significantly better via quality film study, am thinking that’s just wrong.
Just checked Atwater again and he retired in 1999, so he looks to have seven years left. Still cutting it close, but maybe there’s a better chance after all.
I see Lynch getting in this tear, Dawkins next year, Reed possible first ballot in 2019 then Atwater will get in after, perhaps in 2021. We’ll see, but may happen like that. Anyway, talking about current players, Matt Ryan just got named first team All Pro. That’ll put him in position to get to the HOF. 1/4/none isn’t exactly strong, but his AP award helps a ton. McNabb is a borderline HOFer without one. Ryan is well on pace to achieve 55,000 yards, especially the rate he is playing at. Might place him #6-7 all time, behind Favre, Brees, Brady, Manning, Marino, and Eli (not in that order).
Matt Ryan is also very likely going to be NFL MVP – another award that will greatly enhance his PFHOF creds
And reminder that PFHOF Class of 2017 we be announced during the NFL Honors show on Fox, Sat Feb 4th 8-10 EST (announcement around the 9p mark) . But that show is actually taped with 1 hr delay so the LIVE announcement during the actual show is around 8pm EST, and in recent years with that format, confirmation of those elected (by them or others) started linking out via social media as early as 6 or 7 pm EST. So we will likely have confirmations of the entire Class even before the show at 8p actually airs.
This year’s AP and PFWA 1st team all pros. Mostly the same, though a couple differences:
PFWA
Offense
QB – Matt Ryan, Atlanta Falcons
RB – Ezekiel Elliott, Dallas Cowboys; David Johnson, Arizona Cardinals
WR – Antonio Brown, Pittsburgh Steelers#; Julio Jones, Atlanta Falcons*
TE – Travis Kelce, Kansas City Chiefs
C – Travis Frederick, Dallas Cowboys
G – Zack Martin, Dallas Cowboys*; Kelechi Osemele, Oakland Raiders
T – Tyron Smith, Dallas Cowboys#; Joe Thomas, Cleveland Browns&
Defense
DE – Jadeveon Clowney, Houston Texans; Khalil Mack, Oakland Raiders*
DT – Aaron Donald, Los Angeles Rams*; Damon Harrison, New York Giants
OLB – Vic Beasley, Atlanta Falcons; Von Miller, Denver Broncos#
MLB – Bobby Wagner, Seattle Seahawks
CB – Marcus Peters, Kansas City Chiefs; Aqib Talib, Denver Broncos
S – Eric Berry, Kansas City Chiefs*; Landon Collins, New York Giants
Special Teams
PK – Justin Tucker, Baltimore Ravens
P – Johnny Hekker, Los Angeles Rams*
KR – Cordarrelle Patterson, Minnesota Vikings*
PR – Tyreek Hill, Kansas City Chiefs
ST – Matthew Slater, New England Patriots
* – repeat selection from 2015
# – consecutive selections from 2014-16
& – consecutive selections from 2013-16
AP
Offense
Quarterback – Matt Ryan, Atlanta
Wide receivers – Julio Jones, Atlanta, Antonio Brown, Pittsburgh
Running back – Ezekiel Elliott, Dallas
Flex – David Johnson, Arizona
Tight end – Travis Kelce, Kansas City
Tackles – Tyron Smith, Dallas, Jack Conklin, Tennessee
Guards – Zack Martin, Dallas, Kelechi Osemele, Oakland
Center – Travis Frederick, Dallas
Defense
Edge rushers – Khalil Mack, Oakland, Vic Beasley, Atlanta
Defensive tackles – Aaron Donald, Los Angeles, Damon Harrison, N.Y. Giants
Linebackers – Sean Lee, Dallas, Von Miller, Denver, Bobby Wagner, Seattle
Cornerbacks – Marcus Peters, Kansas City, Chris Harris, Jr. Denver, Aqib Talib, Denver
Safeties – Eric Berry, Kansas City, Landon Collins, N.Y. Giants
Special teams
Kicker – Justin Tucker, Baltimore
Punter – Johnny Hekker, Los Angeles
Punt returner – Tyreek Hill, Kansas City
Kick returner – Cordarrelle Patterson, Minnesota
Special teamer – Matthew Slater, New England
Thoughts on the non-skill folks:
Not too many long-timers here except for Joe Thomas on PFWA. The Cowboys linemen, especially Martin and Smith, are sure starting off in elite territory, as is Aaron Donald – still early, though. Eric Berry and Von Miller look like they’re well on the way to top-flight status, see if they can keep it up.
Von Miller is well on pace for HOF. 4/5/likely 10s, and his prime seems to be now, so could end up 6/8-9/10s.
Centers have a long path to PFHOF but at 1(2)/3 in first 4 years in league, Travis Frederick is trending good including strong track for 2010s all decade team. Z martin and T Smith may have better path and greater upside, but will be interesting to see where all three are positioned in another 5-6 years at this pace.
Just wondering what people think, looks like Romo may be done (slight chance he ends up on another team, with shot at SB), but as it stands now is there a historical comparable QB in PFHOF or serious candidate for PFHOF with career that matches close to his. I am not looking to make a PFHOF case for him, just interested if another such QB has ever played and had similar career. He and his career strikes me as very unique, but perhaps that is more related to playing for high profile team in Dallas.
not off the top of my head
I think the most similar quarterback to Romo would have to be Philip Rivers. Both guys have spent their entire career (thus far) with one team, took a couple of seasons to become starters, have had several seasons where they were considered to be among the best, but never the absolute best QB’s in the league. Neither guy has made it to the Super Bowl, but for the most part they have both performed well in the playoffs, and they both have been highly efficient passers who consistently put up good counting stats when healthy.
The last point in the previous paragraph is what puts Rivers a step of Romo though, and will likely put him in the Hall of Fame some day. He has never missed a regular season game since becoming a full-time starter, so his counting stats and career wins are likely to put him among the best QB’s to never win a Super Bowl when he retires. Unless Romo has a career resurgence with a new team, he’ll likely go down as one of the best “Hall of Very Good” QB’s of all time.
With Rivers can a 0/5 player with no season MVP or SB (lets just evaluate his PFHOF case of today), currently among top 10-15 in major career QB numbers have a strong PFHOF case? If he gets to top5-10 in career passing numbers, but still with out all pro, MVP or SB, does he then have a stronger case and is there a comparable with that?
There isn’t currently a comparable quarterback to Rivers in the hall of fame. The majority of the quarterbacks in the hall have some combination of Super Bowl Wins, multiple Super Bowl appearances, an MVP or two, or excellent counting stats combined with a ton of Pro Bowls. Where Rivers will be an interesting case is that there really isn’t a quarterback like him OUT of the hall of fame either.
Among active or recently retired players, it’s probably safe to say that both Mannings, Brady, Brees, Rodgers and Big Ben have had better overall careers, and are likely to be inducted even if their wait is long. I would put Rivers a bit ahead of Romo and Palmer, and I would probably put Matt Ryan a bit ahead of him. Hard to judge Ryan though, because how this season ends could throw him right into HOF territory (if he wins MVP and/or wins a Super Bowl). I don’t think any other active QB’s have accrued enough years to really know for sure yet whether they are HOF material (e.g. Luck, WIlson, Newton, etc.).
In terms of QB’s currently eligible for the modern-era vote, Warner is obviously ahead of him, but Rivers at this point is in my opinion a cut above the rest of the eligible QB’s. He is definitely ahead of other compilers like Krieg, Bledsoe, and Testaverde, and I’d definitely put him ahead of guys like Phil Simms (Super Bowl win, low Pro Bowls) and Rich Gannon (very high, but short peak). Beyond those guys, you have Boomer Esiason, Donovan McNabb and Randall Cunningham, who are the 2nd-4th best eligible QB’s. Rivers clearly had a better peak and has better counting numbers than McNabb, and while he doesn’t have the MVP-level seasons that Esiason and Cunningham had, he also doesn’t have the losing career record of Esiason or the exceptionally low counting numbers of Cunningham.
Of the guys in the senior pool, it’s pretty obvious that Kemp, Hadl and Lamonica have credentials that are heavily inflated by playing in the AFL, and that compilers without championships like Gabriel (0 playoff wins) and Snead (won less than 1/3 of his starts) are clearly a step below Rivers. Ken Anderson is probably the best of the bunch, but his credentials are more similar to Boomer Esiason’s (but with a better career record). Conerly and Brodie had nice careers, but their cases are more led by elite counting stats and MVP’s, and brought down by a lack of All-Pro’s/Pro Bowls, so they don’t make a great comparison.
In the end, Rivers (similar to Donovan McNabb) is going to do one of 2 things, he is either going to slightly lower the HOF QB bar, or he’ll be the best QB on the outside looking in. He’s clearly below the elite compilers without championships in the hall like Marino, Fouts, Moon, etc., but he’s a cut above the best compilers outside the Hall like Gabriel, Hadl, and Bledsoe.
Thanks for the great analysis BSLO, and I agree with you. Although PFHOF voters may sometimes over value and over appreciate QBs when it comes to voting and electing, every election and pool of candidates has many other players and positions worthy of consideration and election. So marginal quality PFHOF QBs have had – and will continue to have – a hard time considering more deserving and qualified candidates on the ballot. In order words no special treatment for QBs that makes an easier path to election.
could anyone see a scenerio where warner or tomlinson doesnt get elected
Warner yes, but not LT. Warner might not due to his short time as starter.
Warner was in the final 10 last year, and one can argue that among those not elected he is next in line. I do not envision 4 others coming from finalists including 1st time players that would all take a slot from him (I am of course reserving 1 slot already for LT). In recent years PFHOF have gotten more predicable by advancing players in the final 10 and drawing from those not elected for the next year. That is also why I feel pretty good about both Jacoby and Lynch, plus picking Coryell (although I will concede that either TD or TO could easy take the fifth and final slot.) I just do not see many huge surprises this year, really do not view it as a wide open field.
Warner could not be elected this year if 9 or so voters don’t think he is a hall of famer once he gets to the final 5 (thereby missing the 80% needed). Warner has an “atypical” hall of fame case. There is tons to like (2 time MVP, at one time the 3 highest yardage totals in Super Bowl history, getting both the Rams and Cardinals to the Super Bowl), but there are tons of things that just don’t seem HOF-worthy or at least make you ask unusual questions for a HOF QB: Why did the Rams give up on him in the middle of his career? How much did the Rams really “step back” with Marc Bulger (who no one thinks is close to a HOFer)? Why was Warner benched four times (and cut twice) in the prime of his career (remember the Cardinals benched him twice: once for McCown and once for Leinart)? Why did the Cardinals draft Matt Leinart when they had a HOF QB on their team? Why did that HOF QB then sit behind Leinart for a couple of years?
I know there are answers (sometimes good ones) for these questions, but this is certainly not the typical HOF QB story. For example, Drew Bledsoe spent more than a decade as a top QB in the NFL, never seriously being challenged or benched during that period (and when he was it was for Brady and then at the end of his career for Romo). He played in a Super Bowl. He has much better career numbers than Warner. But, no one is arguing for him to be in the HOF. The case for Donovan McNabb is similar to Bledsoe. I can see a minority of candidates believing that a HOF QB has to be someone like Elway, Marino, Montana, Favre, Manning, Brady, etc. A guy you plugged into the lineup and left there for 10-15 years, never seriously doubting that he was the guy who would (or did) take you to the promised land. Sure some of them bounced around during the end of their careers (Favre in NY and Minnesota, Montana in KC), but that was the tail end of a career that was already HOF worthy. Warner isn’t that kind of guy, and if that is the bar, he falls short. In fact, if that is the bar, he might even fall behind non-HOF guys like Bledsoe and McNabb.
I’ve always been ambivalent about Warner’s candidacy. I understand the “story,” but that shouldn’t be enough by itself. Lots of guys have great stories. Rocky Bleier played with half a foot on four super bowl teams. He had more than a 1000 yards one season. But he feel short of his contemporaries like Franco, Simpson, and Csonka. He was a great story but not a HOF player. Obviously, Warner is a much tougher case that Bleier (with all due respect to Rocky’s amazing life), but I’m not convinced Warner is a slam dunk HOFer. Therefore, it would not surprise me if 9 voters nixed him in the final five. Personally, I hope it doesn’t happen because it would cause other guys to wait longer. But it is definitely possible.
In recent PFHOF elections, voters have not been inclined to vote down a candidate in the final round of 5 finalists, so I do not see a widespread effort to do so this year for Warner (or others). Remember the voters advanced him into the final 10 last year so clearly he has support and they see him as a deserving candidate. I understand the case and debate for his unusual bimodal career – I and others have posted and discussed Warner’s career often here – but 2 MVPs, 3 SBs, SB MVP within several top QB seasons has its appeal and merit as a candidate, and apparently voters agree. I also think he is benefiting now and in the recent past by the few quality QBs in the candidate pool and elected (with the noted exception of Favre last year), making him the top candidate at the position. PFHOF voters love their QBs, RBs and WRs.
Paul:
I agree with you. The last time the selectors voted a modern candidate to the final 5 but did not elect him to the HOF was 2007 with Tagliabue. Therefore, it hasn’t happened in quite some time. On the other hand, it happened a lot before 2007, including with guys like Harry Carson and Michael Irvin. I’m certainly not advocating that the selectors go back to the “small hall” days, but in response to Robert Ewing’s question, I just noted that it was possible with Warner. In fact, other than the short career guys like Davis and Boselli, I would argue that Warner’s atypical candidacy is more susceptible than most to being voted down on the doorstep. It only takes approximately 9 selectors. With a very diverse list of candidates and few clear frontrunners, Warner (and anyone else) can get to the final five with far less than 80% of the vote. If that happens, it is certainly possible (although not likely) that the candidate would not be elected.
The number and mix of voters has changed much over the last decade (including many new members) and I think they are in general agreement that anyone who advances into the final ten is deserving of election (many public comments from voters about the quality and depth of the final 10 list). Hence how many final 10 not elected in one year are making it the next year. So they are willing to support the final 5 and the process that comes there more so then in previous years. After spending several hours of discussion and votes, my sense in that when it comes to up/down on voting for final 5 the vast majority support the outcome to that point and approve election.
My 2017 class. Davis Tomlinson warner lynch jacoby Easley PT
So you think the media based PFHOF voters are not going to select Jerry Jones and go against the nomination from their own committee? My view is that while many fans (including some Cowboys fans) do not like Jerry, especially his last 20 year performance as the GM, the league and media love old Jerry and I think recent drafts and success this year are going to push him to election. Also to turn down JJ would raise questions about the contributors slot and election process, when it has only been in place a few years and in middle of current trial period.
Matt Ryan IMO has almost punched his ticket to Canton. If he wins MVP, he’ll just need to get to 50,000 yards. If he wins the SB, it’s a wrap. Doesn’t necessarily need 50-55k. But, I think he will get to that # anyway. Big Ben contemplating retirement. If he does, how long do you guys think he waits? Peyton first ballot in 2022, Warner will get in by 2018-19. He’ll be best QB on ballot.
Depending on when Brees, Brady, Rodgers, and E Manning retire, Ben could have the ballot to himself as only QB for a few years. His problem is that may not be enough time as if voters would take 3-5 years to elect him he could be up against the other better QBs on the ballot very soon within those 5 years. But I actually doubt he retires this year. The QB slots on the ballots in the mid to late 2020s will be very interesting
Updated list
Easley
Jacoby
Jones
PT
Tomlinson
Warner
3 of the modern era im sure about the other 2 im not sure
I think Lynch still has an inside track to election as I doubt committee would vote all modern slots to offensive players
LT
Warner
Dawkins
Lynch
T.O.
That is my prediction for the Final 5. I think Lynch being the GM of the Niners now might boost him.
Tomlinson
Lynch
Jacoby
Warner
Davis
Jones
Tagliabue
Easley
Coryell is most likely to crash this group. My guess, anyway.
The one issue that gives me pause with Davis is that with LT that would give class 2 RBs. And I know other classes have often had two members from the same position, but still given the quality and depth of the final 15, and need to start addressing the Safety backlog, would the Committee give 2 slots to RBs? Also perhaps they are aware that Davis would stay as the best RB on the ballot for the next several years, he could easily be elected as soon as next year.
That is why my prediction includes Coryell over Davis, but also agree would not be surprised or disappointed to see Davis in over Coryell.
John Turney of the Pro Football Journal is predicting that Tomlinson, Warner, Davis, Jacoby, Coryell, Easley, Tagliabue and Jones will get elected this year.
Turney’s prediction seems heavy on offensive
I’m done being hung up on the Modern Era players. Almost all of them will get in and most importantly will be deserving.
I’ve always been more interesred in the senior candidates anyway. While I perceive Kenny Easley to be deserving, there are others who are getting up there and have waited longer who should get to enjoy it while they’re still here. Slowing down the senior selections doesn’t help.
Also, I really hope Bobby Beathard is the next contributor candidate. Does drafting Ryan Leaf really justify excluding someone who hired and drafted many Hall of Famers who went on to win three Super Bowls in 10 seasons?
Corey you and I agree on the senior nominee part who would you like to see be the senior nominees for 2018
Corey, agreed by and large on the older candidates. Easley however has health issues of his own, including recently undergoing heart bypass surgery. No question the answer was not to cut the number of Senior candidates.
Considering I want older nominees, I will again be calling for Johnny Robinson. As someone who wants older nominees, Billy Howton and Chuck Howley are both in their eighties. The same goes for Joe Fortunato and maybe Del Shofner too. These players aren’t getting any younger. Almost all of the modern era players will eventually be elected. It’s the seniors I worry about.
Jerry Kramer is around 80-81. Bobby Dillon is 86. These guys deserve a look.
If Stanfel could be nominated three times why not Kramer a second time?
Here are the Predictions from the Talk of Fame Network for the Modern Finalists from their show this week:
Ron Borges: Tomlinson, Jacoby, Owens, Law and Mawae
Rick Gosselin: Tomlinson, Warner, Jacoby, Bosell, and Taylor
Clark Judge: Tomlinson, Warner, Jacoby, Faneca, and Coryell.
Anyone see particular finalists gathering “buzz” in the media as we head into election day on Saturday? The only two that come to wind for me are Davis and Coryell (Lynch perhaps, but could be more because of becoming 49ers GM). Besides LT, not seeing push for any other 1st time finalist. Guessing the biggest story after the election will be misses on TO and perhaps Davis.
I guess Joe Jacoby might be elected this year. His profiles do seem underwhelming. I know it’s all a matter of prioritizing and most will eventually get their bust, but I think Jacoby should only be reserved for when the pool isn’t so deep.
Wow Rob there are some pretty big surprises: Faneca, Law? Mawae?, Bosell? None of made final 10 before. No love for the final 10 of 2016 not elected, In recent years voters have stated high regard for the quality of the final 15 and final 10, and in following years advanced final 10 non-elected players to election, yet all three of these predictions largely throw that approach and historical trend right out the window. Davis, Lynch, Coryell and in the case of Borges none for Warner? Taylor really that deserving for 1st ballot election?? Faneca also makes jump from finalist to elected without previous selection of final 10? And no love for Davis or Lynch who were in final 10 last year?? I see some pretty far reaches on all of these, seem more like their choices rather then predictions of what the committee will do. Borges has 3 players jumping all the way from final 15 to election, over 3 other 2017 final 10 members?? Bosell makes the final 15 and Gosselin has him elected right off the bat, at expense of Davis or Lynch? I can see where Owens and even Taylor get elected, but no way on Mawae, Bosell and Faneca-all of them some day but not this year. Sorry I just do not see it.
Paul, agreed. Boselli, Law, Mawae, Faneca? Law would have to jump Lynch and Dawkins to get in, which would be a shocker. And Borges leaving off Warner is really surprising. Taylor being first ballot seems like a reach also. And given TO’s baggage and ungracious reaction to not getting in last year should ensure another year’s wait for him. Also surprised John Lynch and Terrell Davis have fallen off the radar so fast. Clark Judge likely has the best chance of being right as 4 of his 5 choices seem pretty plausible. We shall see.
I admit that my support tends to lie with returning finalists, in less a 1st time finalist is clearly deserving of election (as LT is this year). To be a finalist year after year-including advancing to the final 10- having endured the wait and with the voters hearing and debating your case (and indicating a level of support by advancing you as far as the final 10) should warrant consideration for election over someone who has never been through that process (they just appeared on the finalist list for the first time). That is why I hope for the best this year for Warner, Lynch, Coryell and Davis.
When reviewing the Talk of Fame host’s selections, we need to put them in context. First, Borges is presenting Law today. Of course, he is going to say that he makes the final 5. That said, Law would not be “jumping” either Dawkins of Lynch. Law was primarily a CB and hall voters have always treated CBs differently than Safeties. Just as OT are treated differently than Guards. One final point, Dawkins is a first ballot guy, while Law is in his 3 year of eligibility. If anything, Dawkins is the one jumping Law. Also, Gosselin has long preached for greater offensive and defensive balance in the HOF. As a result, he would be much more likely to favor Taylor than the others. I also don’t think the Taylor pick is that far off. As a Redskins fan, I’ll never forgive him for stealing our money and allowing the Dolphins to steal our draft pick, but his career numbers are far more impressive than my memories of him led me to believe. In effect, he is a Strahan clone, who is Taylor’s most comparable player on Pro Football Reference. Their career AV’s are 160 and 161. Sacks are 139.5 for Taylor and 141.5 for Strahan. Strahan has one more pro bowl and one more all pro (helps playing in NY), but Taylor scored a lot more (his 9 career TDs is amazing for a DE). If Strahan’s first ballot omission was a shock as many said, then Taylor should be treated very similarly. My guess is that he makes the cut down to 10 this year and gets in next year. Finally, the momentum I’m seeing in the press is for Andersen, Davis, and Jacoby and then maybe Boselli. With all of that as preview, these are my predictions:
First five cut:
Bruce
Law
Lynch
Mawae
Owens
Next five cut:
Boselli
Coryell
Davis
Faneca
Taylor
Five New Members
Andersen
Dawkins
Jacoby
Tomlinson
Warner
My thinking is that Tomlinson is a lock and Warner is nearly so (unless the old silent assassins come back in the final vote). Jacoby is gaining momentum and benefits from this being near the end of his time on the ballot, being the real best of the Hogs, and playing left offensive tackle. Also a lot of former players have sung his praises in the last two weeks. Dawkins is the token defensive player and leapfrogs Lynch because his numbers are so much better (I previously posted a comparison of Atwater, Lynch, Dawkins, Reed, and Polamalu, and Dawkins was second best behind only Reed and far ahead of Lynch and Atwater). Moreover, Dawkins was the unquestioned leader of Philadelphia’s defense, while Lynch was probably behind Sapp and Brooks in that department in Tampa Bay. Finally, there is always a surprise and several commentators keep bringing up Andersen, This might be his year. However, I wouldn’t be surprised to see any of my top 10 make it or Lynch and Owens. This is a deep, if unspectacular, set of finalists. Almost all, if not all, will eventually be HOFers, but few jump of the page as clearly better than others. I’ve done my best to find the five that to me have slight leads for one reason or another.
One final thought, I have a bad feeling that the voters are already rebuilding the WR backlog (amazingly). If my predictions above are correct, no clear favorite between Owens and Bruce would be established with Holt and Ward already waiting and Randy Moss joining the ballot next year. Ouch. As much as I dislike Owens, the voters might just pull of the bandaid and get it over with this year. He is going to make the HOF eventually. They might say to each other, “Why prolong the torture (and longer meetings) longer than necessary?” Can you imagine Moss an TO being discussed during the same meeting? It might never end.
Today is the day folks. Again official announcement around 9p EST during NFL Honors Show but expect with tape day of show hour earlier possible word starts floating out via social media 8p or even earlier if player or family post news.
Selectors meeting is done. Please pass along any info anyone sees from twitter, Facebook, etc.
Boselli not elected.
Tagliabue not elected by one vote per La Canfora
Paul T not in
Warner yes, Davis no
Jacoby was not elected per NFL Draft Diamonds.
TO was not elected.
Per Rick Gosselin on twitter: The longest discussion of the HOF meeting was Paul Tagliabue for an hour. Jerry Jones was next at 33 minutes, 45 seconds, then TO at 32:21.
Jason T is in
Jason Taylor voted in First Ballot.
the debate in 2018 between moss and to will be interesting
Down to Coryell? lynch? Dawkins?
Faneca?
On T.O. – I understand making him wait a year because he was a bad teammate (and his drop rate), but passing him over again is dumb and/or petty. What do they do next year with Moss being on the ballot, too?
Bill Simmons is reporting Davis was not elected.
Mike Klis is reporting Terrell Davis was elected.
Lynch in
Michael David Smith is reporting John Lynch and Brian Dawkins canceled each out. Faneca, and Mawae were not elected.
So far? LT TD Warner Lynch
Tomlinson is in.
So T.O. gets passed over for a HoVG safety and a product of the system RB who had a 4-year career? Faneca’s more deserving than Davis and Lynch, too.
michael david smith said lynch didnt make it
So far in: Tomlinson, Davis and Taylor.
Kurt Warner and Morten Andersen are in.
Modern: Tomlinson, Warner, Andersen, Davis and Taylor.
Faneca’s out, so it’s gotta be Coryell and Warner joining the other three. Re: Taylor. He’s deserving, but they couldn’t wait a year on him? Now they’re going to have VERY tough decisions at WR, O-line and Safety next year.
Putting Coryell in (assuming they did) opens up a can of worms to me. What’s the argument now against Marty Schottenheimer? What about Marty’s “brother from another mother” Chuck Knox? Then there’s Dan Reeves who, unlike Chuck and Marty, coached in a few SBs (and got two different teams there). What about Dick Vermeil, who also got three teams into the playoffs, two to the SB and won one.
Woooowwww…Morten Andersen before Faneca and T.O? If Coryell can’t get in with Fouts in the room arguing his case, I don’t think he ever makes it.
L.Tomlinson
K.Warner
T.Davis
J.Taylor
M.Andersen
J.Jones
K.Easley
The Class of 2017.
Hey guys–here’s our “official” post on the voting: https://www.zoneblitz.com/2017/02/04/2017-pro-football-hall-fame-class-announced/
TT