I don’t dislike Matt Forte. And I can certainly understand his desire for a long-term contract, given the short span the careers of most running backs.
But as the Monday deadline approaches for franchised players to sign long-term deals, Forte also plays a major role in whether or not this deal gets done. He’s got to look in the mirror and realize the limits to his value.
It’s not that I don’t think he’s a good back. In the open-field he’s exciting to watch and he’ll break incredibly big plays a few times a season. But he reportedly has been citing deals given to Arian Foster and LeSean McCoy when discussing how he wants fair market value and that kind of coin, my friends, he has not earned.
Let’s compare:
Foster, arguably the league’s top back right now, has rushed for 3,097 yards in three seasons, averaging 4.7 yards per carry. Essentially that’s two seasons, however, as he started just one game and played in six his rookie season in 2009.
McCoy exploded last season, breaking out for a 20 touchdown (17 on the ground) campaign. His first three seasons produced 3,026 yards rushing and 4.8 yards per carry.
Forte has put up 4,233 yards in four seasons, roughly equal on a per-season basis. But he’s averaged just 4.2 yards per carry. And, more glaringly, he has put up just 21 touchdowns on the ground – an average of five per year – compared with the three-year totals for Foster (29, just under 10 per season even counting his truncated rookie year) and McCoy (28 in three season or, again, just under 10 per season).
But that doesn’t tell the entire story, critics will say. Forte is valuable out of the backfield. True – he has added eight more touchdowns and 223 catches at 8.9 yards per reception since arriving in the NFL in 2008.
Again, however, his numbers are nearly matched or exceeded by Foster and McCoy. The Texans’ star averages 42 catches per season, 13 behind Forte, but he averages 10.3 yards per catch and has added four touchdowns, while the Eagle stalwart has produced 55 catches per season – one behind Forte – and five touchdowns while averaging 7.3 yards when he catches a pass.
The most glaring difference between the three backs, however, is in the red zone. Foster and McCoy sniff out pay dirt and don’t leave the field when their teams are close to the stripe. The Bears, on the other hand, have tried for two seasons to find a complement who can take that job away from Forte. Last year Chicago brought in a well-cooked Marion Barber III, who scored six touchdowns in limited action despite proving to be at the end of his seven-year career.
This year it’s Michael Bush. Sure, Bush was partially brought in as insurance against a holdout by Forte. But even if number 22 reports for camp on time, it’s a near certainty that the former Raider will handle much of the grunt work.
Ben Tate did bite into Foster’s touchdown total in 2011 during Arian’s early-season injuries, but that almost makes the numbers Foster put up more amazing.
So, let’s face it. Forte is a good back, but also an incomplete one. He’s contributed a lot to some mostly pretty decent Bears teams over the last four years and I’d like to see him rewarded with a long-term deal.
But he has to be realistic. If he’s seeking money similar to Foster and McCoy, it will force the Bears to let him play on the franchise tag this year and either do so again in 2013 or let him go after the season. It’s the only financially prudent move the Bears can make.
andy i agree he hasnt earned the money foster and mccoy make