Seattle wrapped up the 2013 season with its dominant win over Denver last weekend. So we’re officially looking ahead to the 2014 season.
That includes fantasy football where, just like in the real NFL, there really is no off-season anymore.
We’ll revisit fantasy frequently throughout the next several months. But for those who are suffering football withdrawal, here are some things to ponder from Anthony Maggio, fantasy editor for Zoneblitz and co-host of Fantasy Football Sunday on 1500 ESPN radio in the Twin Cities.
Andy: Who heading into their second or third year in 2014 do you see taking off as a fantasy contributor next season?
Maggio: There are a handful of younger guys who showed flashes this year that have me excited for their prospects next season. Three tight ends—Tyler Eifert, Timothy Wright and Ladarius Green—will likely have me singing a similar tune as I did this preseason when I said if you didn’t get Jimmy Graham you can safely wait on tight ends and get value later. At wide receiver, I expect Cordarrelle Patterson to be a popular sleeper after his strong second half, leaving him with plenty of value but probably not a lot of profit potential. Justin Hunter would more likely fit that bill, though it will depend on his quarterback situation.
E.J. Manuel is in the same boat, as his injury-plagued rookie season will have him in the low teens at best in the quarterback rankings. As for running back, there are three guys I’d like to mention in different categories. First, Montee Ball is probably the Patterson comp at the position—a guy I think will provide fantasy value but not a ton of profit based on where he’ll be drafted. Marcus Lattimore is the big wild card, as there’s no way to know how healthy to be, let alone where he’ll land on the depth chart. Without Lattimore a question mark, right now the guy I’d like the most is Lance Dunbar. Injuries slowed him this year, but he could be to the Cowboys what Darren Sproles has been to New Orleans.
Andy: What long-time fantasy contributors will you be staying away from in 2014 and why?
Maggio: Andre Johnson is probably the most out-on-a-limb pick I’ve got in this category, but it is mostly due to the unknowns about his quarterback and offense. DeAndre Hopkins shouldn’t cut into his numbers too much, though it is worth noting he’s the No. 1 WR heir apparent in Houston, whether that’s as soon as 2014 or three years from now.
I’d put Tony Romo on the list as well, mostly due to the depth at the quarterback position. There’s still some name and team cache that goes with Romo, which I think will inflate his value enough to make him drafted before I’d be ready to take him.
At running back, I’m a little worried about Steven Jackson and a little more worried about Frank Gore. Both have their age working against them, though at least in Jackson’s case there isn’t a No. 1 RB breathing down his neck.
I think there’s an argument to be made for cautious optimism with S-Jax as a No. 2 RB, but considering where you’d have to draft a No. 2 RB, I wouldn’t be willing to make that leap.
With Gore, he’s got the aforementioned Lattimore along with potentially Kendall Hunter and LaMichael James to deal with. That combined with his age will keep me from drafting Gore where he’s likely to go.
Lastly, I saw enough of the aforementioned Green in his couple of big games in 2013 to make me hesitant to go near Antonio Gates. Gates’ value may fall enough where a Green/Gates handcuff situation could feasibly happen, but I can’t trust Gates without a safety net at this point.
Andy: What coaching changes do you see affecting fantasy performances?
Maggio: This is a bit of a cop-out, but I honestly think EVERY coaching change has the potential to impact fantasy performance. If there’s one team I’m looking at the most for a positive impact it would have to be Tennessee. Ken Whisenhunt turned Kurt Warner’s twilight with Arizona into a Super Bowl run, and his one-year stint as OC under Mike McCoy in San Diego led to a revival of the Chargers’ offense.
Andy: Are there any free agency transactions you’ll be watching from a fantasy perspective?
Maggio: Yes. Pretty much all of them. Here’s a list of the 2014 FA class if you’re interested.
Guys that stand out most include Ben Tate, Andre Brown, Knowshon Moreno, Eric Decker, Anquan Boldin, Emmanuel Sanders, and Dennis Pitta.
Andy: It’s early, for sure, but are there any college players who you’ll be keeping an eye on for fantasy purposes?
Maggio: I’m certainly interested to see where the top-end quarterbacks go, but if 2013 taught us anything it’s that opportunity is just as important as talent when it comes to fantasy value.
I liked both Keenan Allen and Jordan Reed coming out of the draft last year and both eventually looked very good, but it took injuries elsewhere to really get both their chances. So while Sammy Watkins and Marqise Lee both could be impact first-year receivers, it’s all about where they wind up.
Andy: Who was a positive surprise for you in 2013 and will they keep it up in 2014?
Maggio: This list should really start and end with Julius Thomas, as he blew even the most optimistic projections out of the water. His own health and Peyton Manning’s potential retirement are probably his biggest hurdles for 2014. If both break his way, he’ll absolutely keep it up.
Other positive surprises who I think will keep it up include Zac Stacy, Andre Ellington and Josh Gordon. I don’t think Ellington has an RB1 ceiling, but I think he can replicate if not improve upon his rookie year. As for Gordon, only his off-the-field activities can derail his superstar career arc.
Andy: Who was a disappointment for you in 2013 and will they turn it around in 2014?
Maggio: Considering I was a step away from being Stevan Ridley’s official hype man, I probably have to consume blackbird on this one. Thing is, he still looked really good in his limited opportunities. I still think highly of Ridley, but certainly have to wonder if he’s in need of a change of scenery to really cash in on his massive potential.
LeGarrette Blount is likely on his way out of town as a free agent, leaving Ridley and Shane Vereen to shoulder the RB load for New England. That will have plenty of folks ready to back Ridley once again, and I’ll tentatively be one of them. But I also wouldn’t be surprised if he can never truly break out with the Patriots. And really the only scenario in which I would fully support Ridley as a surefire fantasy contributor would b if I see him fumble a couple of times within a game or two stretch, and then NOT get sent to the bench. A vote of confidence via unmitigated faith from Captain Hoodie is the only tonic to free Ridley in New England.
Andy: What should avid fantasy players be doing right now to get a leg up on competition for next season?
Maggio: I have two options here—one for folks with unlimited time on their hands, and one for folks without much free time.
For those who are just itching for something to do, I’d spend my time watching film from last season. At the end of the day it’s the stats we truly care about as fantasy players, but anyone who watches even a little football knows those stats are drastically impacted by circumstance. Long touchdown runs that are called back on holding penalties that took place on the other side of the field. Poor offensive line play that leads to a tentative quarterback who takes risks to save his brain from unnecessary trauma. Lack of secondary receiving options that leaves the primary guy constantly double-covered. Basically it’s spending the time trying to find the reasons behind the stats.
Option No. 2, for those without the time for film study, is the complete opposite. While this does nothing to help boost my offseason readership, my advice is to step away completely. Don’t worry about mock NFL drafts, the combine, scouting reports, etc. The fantasy football season is a grind that you need to be refreshed for. You’ll have plenty of time for research when teams reporting to training camp. Any football reading you do between now and then should be for your own personal enjoyment as a fan, not to get ready for next fantasy season. There’s a time and place for that—be ready for it by letting your mind do something else for a while.
Fantasy baseball, anyone???
Recent Comments