Most fantasy football leagues wrapped up last week. Tony and I will soon provide for your viewing pleasure a wrap-up of the leagues we participated in this season.
In the meantime, it’s never too early to start planning for next year.
While these will obviously change based on the draft, free agency and our own whims, Tony and I each slapped together a top 10 list. We also asked Anthony Maggio, a veteran fantasy sports writer, to give his take as well.
Please feel free to share your own thoughts, either on our lists or on what you would have done differently.
Happy Holidays.
Anthony Maggio
Contributing writer for FF Champs and author of the sports blog Punting Baxter
1. Adrian Peterson
2. Michael Turner
3. LaDainian Tomlinson
4. Joseph Addai
5. Marian Barber
6. DeAngelo Williams
7. Brian Westbrook
8. Matt Forte
9. Tom Brady
10. Drew Brees
Summary
Well, despite LT’s relative struggles this year, he’s still been the most consistent fantasy stud over the last several years. Peterson is just too good to not be No. 1, and Turner is No. 2 because of how big of a part he is in Atlanta’s offense.
The success of Dominic Rhodes late in the season is what puts Addai so high – that would have been him had he not been hurt. Similar situation for Barber with Choice. DeAngelo has been a freak this season, but he’s still got a very capable backfield mate who John Fox could go to at any time, so I can’t put him in the top 5.
Westbrook’s probably a top three talent, but his injury history keeps him from being any higher. Forte’s basically a younger Westbrook because he does it all for the Bears, but I can’t put him over Westbrook because Philly’s got a better overall offense.
As for the last two guys, I could have very easily gone with running backs there as well, but figured it would be good to mix things up. Assuming Brady is completely healthy next year I think he gets the same treatment he got going into this draft – hell, Cassell was a top 10 QB this year and he was the backup, so I think that Brady and Brees are pretty much a toss-up. Peyton Manning and Tony Romo are the next tier, but I think they are probably a round or so behind those two.
Andy
Co-owner, Zoneblitz.com
1. Adrian Peterson
2. Matt Forte
3. Michael Turner
4. LaDainian Tomlinson
5. Brian Westbrook
6. Peyton Manning
7. Drew Brees
8. Joseph Addai
9. DeAngelo Williams
10. Maurice Jones-Drew
Summary
Adrian Peterson’s talent and youth springboard him past LT for the top spot. The next four guys are interchangeable at this point. I’m putting youth and potential above experience for now. I love Forte and Turner because both are unquestionably “the guy” in their backfields, putting Forte slightly ahead for now because of his abilities as a receiver.
It will be interesting to see how people treat Tomlinson next season. Were his down numbers due to injuries or is he showing signs of wear and tear? I predict the former and believe whoever takes him will get a steal. Brian Westbrook could be a legit second pick. I’d have no qualms about taking him there. His injury problems are real but he’s been much more durable the last three seasons.
Manning and Brees could be joined by Brady but for now concerns about the knee keep him in the second round of a 10-team draft. Addai will be a steal as he and Manning return to full strength. I have concerns that Williams’ 2008 was a mirage, not in the sense that I think he’s a bad back – he’s clearly not – but in the sense that Jonathan Stewart is also a solid back who will likely eat into Williams’ numbers next season.
My surprise is Jones-Drew. This is based on reports that Fred Taylor is either done in Jacksonville or only coming back with a lesser role and reduced salary. Jones-Drew is more than ready to assume that job.
While I’m typically a proponent of Paul Charchian’s “Do the Opposite” strategy I think there are a lot of wide receivers of similar top-notch talent. I think that drives the entire position into the second round.
Tony
Co-owner, Zoneblitz.com
1. Michael Turner
2. Adrian Peterson
3. Thomas Jones
4. Matt Forte
5. DeAngelo Williams
6. Brian Westbrook
7. Steve Slaton
8. Drew Brees
9. LaDainian Tomlinson
10. Frank Gore
Summary
Turner and Peterson could easily be exchanged at the top, depending on how you feel about their respective quarterback situations, and the use of Jerious Norwood and/or Chester Taylor. The Vikings seem to tend to rely on Taylor more than the Falcons on Norwood, so I give Turner the nod—for now.
Jones’s value could change a lot depending on the Brett Favre situation—if he returns, which I think he will, Jones should still be very productive, assuming he doesn’t lose carries to Leon Washington—and assuming Eric Mangini learns to not go too pass happy. I originally had Westbrook higher than Forte or Williams—but Forte is still really all they have in Chicago for a running game (which makes him artificially high on the list), and Williams looked downright dominant at the end of the year—meaning even with Jonathan Stewart around, Williams should get the bulk of the work.
Westbrook needs to stay healthy, and needs a stable QB situation—if Philly dumps McNabb, Westbrook drops out of the top 10. Like Forte, Slaton is bumped up by their lack of another option—if the Texans make a move in free agency or the draft that makes Slaton part of a two-headed beast, he drops.
In standard scoring leagues, Brees is probably the only QB option I would look at in the top 10—although Peyton Manning would be just outside the top 10, and don’t forget about Tom Brady, if he responds to injuries. Do not overlook LT in your draft—he had a down year, but the Chargers still have the makings of a solid team, and LT should play a major role in that.
And Frank Gore could benefit from playing under Mike Singletary, if he’s retained—just keep an eye on who they replace Mike Martz with. Joseph Addai also could easily jump into the top 10, when these guys drop—the only thing that keeps him out now is his propensity to miss time with injuries.
I left the wide receivers off the top 10—the only one that really came close to breaking in was Andre Johnson. Others that could be considered would be Steve Smith, Randy Moss, and the pair from Arizona—but I think all of them have just as many questions (specifically around their QB situations) as they do answers at this point.
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What’s the logic for leaving Thomas Jones off your lists altogether? You’d rather have Joseph “Ow my ankle, ow my hammie, ow my everything” Addai? Or Felix Jones’ backup?
It’s a fair question. He has had a great year and I like Jones a lot – he helped a couple of my teams quite a bit this year.
But I don’t see him as a first rounder. For me it’s a combination of his age, his history and the fact that he’s the type of running back teams will start, but that they also always seem to be trying to replace as their starter, see Chicago with Cedric Benson – not that it worked well.
It also doesn’t help that whenever Leon Washington gets in the game he seems to make big plays for the Jets as well – a fact I think will slowly start to eat into the carries of the very solid, but more plodding, four-yards-at-a-time Jones.
I do like him, though, and if he fell to me in the second round next season I’d be thrilled. I’d add Brandon Jacobs to my first round list, however, before I’d add Jones.
Ah, yes, Brandon Jacobs–the injury prone battering ram part of the three headed beast. If he could stay healthy, he might be a better pick than Jones. But Jones has out-produced him the last two years.
As for Leon Washington, he’s gotten fewer and fewer carries each season in the pros. At 5-8, 202 pounds, he’s not going to eat into Jones’s carries too much–only on some 3rd downs, and some in the passing game–although Jones does alright in the passing game too.
Jones has outproduced Jacobs? That’s … arguable, at best.
Last I heard, scoring touchdowns is a fairly important part of both football and fantasy football. Jacobs and Jones are tied this year at 15 and last year Jacobs, in 11 games scored six compared with two for Jones in 16.
Again, I’m not arguing that Jones would be a terrible choice. I like the guy. I just wouldn’t take him in the first round. If someone else chose to it’s not a pick I would necessarily criticize.