With the regular season a mere two weeks away fantasy football drafts are in full swing. We here at Zoneblitz are kicking off a marathon weekend ourselves with four between the two of us.
So, in our unending effort to gain an edge, to find that last minute sleeper that will bring us fantasy glory and obnoxious winnings, we sought out some advice from some of the experts of the industry.
We separately asked several folks questions on a multitude of fantasy topics. A couple responded right away. We’ll add to this document if and when anyone else responds, as well.
Here’s who they are:
Anthony Maggio is a veteran fantasy sports writer who has worked for Fanball and FFchamps.com. He currently covers the Minnesota Twins for www.foxsportsnorth.com. Follow him on Twitter @fsnorthmaggio
Michael Lambourne graduated from Arizona State University with a degree in Finance and Psychology with a focus on behavioral economics, game theory, and entrepreneurship. Fantasy football was the perfect opportunity to combine his love for sports, especially football, with game theory and investment analysis. He has developed a passion for creating a detailed strategy to consistantly beat fantasy football. He has a website, fantasyfootballriches.com, and he’s written an e-book: The Expert Guide to Profitable Fantasy Football.
Zach Sundelius is a writer and editor at RotoWire.com.
And here’s what they had to say:
Zoneblitz: Who are a couple under the radar players set for breakout seasons in 2010 and who are a couple guys you think might be busts this year?
Lambourne: A couple players flying under the radar that we are high on include: Ahmad Bradshaw, Jahvid Best, Arian Foster, Michael Crabtree, Hakeem Nicks, Malcom Floyd, Jabar Gaffney, and Matthew Stafford.
Some players we are avoiding include Larry Fitzgerald, Reggie Wayne, Cedric Benson, Steven Jackson.
Maggio: For under the radar guys I’d have to roll with Bernard Berrian, Zach Miller (the Oakland version), Justin Forsett and Kyle Orton. Berrian didn’t get to work with Brett Favre last preseason due to a hammy injury that plagued him all year. With Sidney Rice now out half the season, and Percy Harvin hampered by migraines, I’ll bet Berrian steps up.
Miller actually has a decent quarterback throwing to him now, and he was already a starter-worthy fantasy tight end. Forsett is part of a crowded backfield, but with Seattle poised for success in the running game I think he’ll prove to be the most useable of the bunch. Orton isn’t going to be in any starting lineups Week 1, but when I look at some of the guys ranked ahead of him I shake my head.
I’m prepared for many stories at the end of the season of how someone’s quarterback was injured, Orton was picked up off the waiver wire, and the team hardly missed a beat.
Sundelius: Breakout Players: Jacoby Jones, WR, Houston – Jones is currently battling with Kevin Walter for the No. 2 receiver spot in Houston, but even if Walter enters the season as the starter, I expect Jones to be the more valuable fantasy commodity.
With all-world talent Andre Johnson absorbing the defense’s attention on the other side of the field and an accurate, strong-armed quarterback getting him the ball, Jones is in an ideal situation to emerge as a viable WR3 in many leagues. Despite being used sparingly last season (just 27 catches), he managed to rack up six touchdowns. With more playing time, he can be a weapon.
Matthew Stafford, QB, Detroit – Stafford is being drafted as a backup quarterback in nearly all leagues, but he has the talent and the weapons around him to sneak into QB1 territory by season’s end. In addition to having an invaluable year of experience under his belt, Stafford was blessed with offseason upgrades at nearly every position around him on offense, including RB Jahvid Best, WR Nate Burleson and TE Tony Scheffler, adding to an array of weapons that already included WR Calvin Johnson and TE Brandon Pettigrew. If the offensive line can improve from a season ago, Stafford offers a good deal of upside.
Busts: Rashard Mendenhall, RB, Pittsburgh – Mendenhall is in an appealing situation as the Steelers’ unquestioned No. 1 back, but I see too many red flags to justify spending a first-round pick on him (his current average draft position is the No. 9 RB). For starters, QB Ben Roethlisberger is out for at least the first four games, which will likely result in a lot of stacked fronts designed to stymie the rushing attack.
Even when Big Ben returns, the offensive line simply doesn’t look strong enough to pave consistent openings for Mendenhall, especially without Willie Colon, who was lost for the year with a season-ending injury. Your first-round pick can be better spent elsewhere.
DeSean Jackson, WR, Philadelphia – Don’t get me wrong; Jackson is one of the best big-play receivers in the NFL and should bring smiles to plenty fantasy owners’ faces with several long touchdowns this year. But much like Mendenhall, it’s a pricing issue here. Jackson is being drafted among the top 10 at his position, and I’m simply not comfortable having him as my team’s top WR.
Receiving touchdowns tend to experience a lot of fluctuation from year to year, and the inconsistency is magnified with players like Jackson who garner most of their scores on long plays of 50 yards or more. It’s reasonable to assume that his touchdown total (12 in 2009) might drop, especially with the untested Kevin Kolb playing behind a shaky offensive line. If Kolb falters, or simply doesn’t have enough time to consistently connect on long throws, Jackson will suffer.
Zoneblitz: Which rookies will you trust to be on your teams?
Lambourne: We absolutely love the potential of Jahvid Best. I really like what the Lions have done with their offense and I think they are going to surprise a ton of people this year. Ryan Mathews is the one getting all the publicity right now, and rightly so, he is a stud. However, with his ADP so high we really don’t trust him at such a high cost (Currently drafted 16th overall on average).
Maggio: Hands down Ryan Mathews and Jahvid Best. That answer almost seems too easy, but both of these guys will produce this season – Mathews more than Best. For receivers, I like Tampa Bay’s Mike Williams a lot, and he’ll come cheap on draft day.
Sundelius: Ryan Mathews, Jahvid Best and C.J. Spiller should all be productive fantasy players to varying degrees this year, but I like Best’s upside the most. He can be had for much cheaper than Mathews and has looked explosive throughout the preseason.
I wouldn’t mind getting Dez Bryant in the middle rounds, and if you’re looking for late-round rookie sleepers, Mike Williams, Montario Hardesty and Dexter McCluster could all fit the bill. I think McCluster is going to surprise some people this year. He’s scary quick.
Zoneblitz: What are one or two tips less successful fantasy players should keep in mind?
Lambourne: Focus the majority of your attention (and pre-draft studies) on your middle and late round draft picks. League championships are won in these later rounds, not just exclusively with your top picks. Grab stable players you can count on early, and capture a lot of burst potential late.
Maggio: Don’t overdo it on high-risk/high-reward players. When I’ve found myself in a slump over the years, I have often come back the next year and tried to really hit home runs. Just stay true to your pre-draft game plan and don’t take on multiple guys who have low downsides.
Sundelius: You don’t need to select a quarterback early (assuming you’re in a standard, one-QB league without a lot of performance bonuses). Sure, it’s tempting to use your first- or second-round pick to grab a prolific passer like Aaron Rodgers, Drew Brees or Peyton Manning and watch him rattle off the yards and touchdowns, but your roster will undoubtedly suffer elsewhere, either at RB or WR or both.
As the league trends towards more pass-heavy offenses, more and more viable fantasy quarterbacks are emerging in the mid-to-late rounds of drafts. Solidify yourself at the other positions early and snag a guy like Jay Cutler, Eli Manning or Joe Flacco in the middle rounds.
Zoneblitz: Many say the traditional fantasy football strategy of drafting running backs first is over. Do you agree? Why or why not?
Lambourne: Absolutely. The running back position has an incredible amount of turnover from year to year. That is a statistical fact and the numbers are astounding (More on this subject in our eBook, “The Expert Guide to Profitable Fantasy Football”) You can only count on a few of the top RB’s to consistently produce and after those first few guys are gone, it becomes a crapshoot. It becomes too expensive to spend multiple picks on early RBs. There is incredible value every year in mid-late round running backs.
In fact, Fantasy Football Riches specializes on building an optimal draft strategy based on league structure (ie. scoring, number of teams, roster specs, etc) and your draft position with an emphasis on capturing enormous value with each and every draft pick that work together with your other picks to maximize expected value.
Maggio: It depends on where you draft. I don’t think you’ll ever see the day where more wide receivers or more quarterbacks are taken in the first round than running backs. You may see the day where QBs and WRs combined outnumber RBs, perhaps even in drafts this year. But while workhorse backs are dwindling in numbers, it makes the ones still remaining even more valuable.
Sundelius: No. As mentioned above, the NFL continues to become more of a passing league, with fewer teams employing a workhorse back and more relying on two-RB tandems. This makes it even more important to lock up a productive running back early, because the number of elite runners is arguably smaller than ever. You don’t necessarily have to take a RB in the first round (some WRs like Andre Johnson are worthy of a first-round pick), but ideally two of your first four picks should be RBs.
Zoneblitz: With the Cardinals’ quarterback situation up in the air heading into the season, what is good value for Larry Fitzgerald?
Lambourne: I am originally from Arizona and I am admittedly a HUGE Fitzgerald fan. I think he is the best overall wide receiver in the game right now. With that said however, I am likely not drafting him on ANY of my teams this year. Why? Matt Leinart. I feel Leinart hurts his value ENORMOUSLY. Not only will Matt hurt Larry’s statistics, he is likely to keep getting him hurt.
Ever since entering the league, Matt’s weak arm and poor decision making has constantly been hanging Larry out to dry. Leinart is better suited for “The Hills” than the NFL. Thankfully, he will be back in Southern California soon enough, as Derek Anderson may have already bumped him down the depth charts going into their 3rd preseason game.
Maggio: That’s a great question and one that I’ve already struggled with in a draft this season. I just took him midway through the second round of a keeper league, which based on the league and players kept would’ve likely landed him in the late second round had it been a re-draft league.
It was reported on Thursday that Leinart was demoted in favor of Derek Anderson, which in a way actually makes me feel a bit better about Fitzy. Anderson’s had just one good season, but that’s one more than Leinart has under his belt. And Anderson worked well with a No. 1 receiver while with Cleveland – and Fitzy can actually catch the football, unlike Braylon Edwards. Still, he’s dropped from the top fantasy receiver at this time last year to the No. 6/7 range for me this season.
Sundelius: Only once in the last five years has Fitzgerald finished outside the top five fantasy WRs: a 24th-place finish in 2006. Missing three games was partially to blame, but that also happened to be the season that Matt Leinart started 11 games for Arizona.
With either Leinart or Derek Anderson under center for the Cards in 2010, it’s reasonable to assume a decrease in numbers for Fitz, perhaps enough to slide him out of the top five at his position. With that said, the departure of Anquan Boldin should ensure a massive amount of targets for Fitzgerald as the team’s unquestioned top receiving threat. I’d be perfectly content taking him in the second round in a standard draft.
Zoneblitz: Bret Favre is back but the rest of the offense is in disarray. Where does he rank on your board and how are other Vikings affected?
Lambourne: We are not on the Favre bandwagon this year either. I think his ankle injury is more of a concern than people realize. His incredible stats last year were an aberration and look for a case of regression to the mean this season. I have both Matthew Stafford and Alex Smith finishing the season with more fantasy points. Adrian Peterson always has incredible value and we are a fan of Percy Harvin however, especially in leagues that reward return yards.
Maggio: Favre’s still a fantasy starter, but I’ve got him as my No. 9 QB. Rice’s hip surgery is a big blow and Harvin still has his headache issue, but I think the Vikings will be OK. Rice was a nobody until Favre turned him into a Pro Bowl receiver last season. Harvin can handle the ball more, and this is Berrian’s chance to reassert himself as a fantasy starter. I think he’ll do that. Visanthe Shiancoe retains his value, and I don’t see Javon Walker or Greg Camarillo being much use to anyone.
Sundelius: I wouldn’t go so far as to say the offense is in disarray. Losing Sidney Rice until at least mid-season will certainly hurt, but the Vikings still boast one of the best running backs in football, a decent offensive line, and an array of weapons that includes Percy Harvin, Bernard Berrian and Visanthe Shiancoe. At RotoWire, we currently have Favre ranked as our No. 15 QB, but he could easily exceed that ranking if he’s able to stay healthy. If he plays 16 games, he should finish among the top 12 quarterbacks.
Zoneblitz: With several tight ends emerging, who are you targeting at that position and at what point in drafts?
Lambourne: Tight ends are revolutionizing the way football is played and I believe it will ultimately change the way it is coached. More specifically, I think coaches will finally “give in” and “see the light” when it comes to 4th down conversions.
The statistical analysis community has been calling for more 4th down conversion attempts for years, with rigorous mathematical proof to back them up. However, NFL coaches have been slow to implement these findings (presumably due to a lack of job security). But now with these freak, super-athlete tight ends, coaches have an opportunity to create enormous mismatches specifically for these key 4th down plays.
Look for Bill Belichick and the Pats to lead the trend. Bill has already proved willing to buck conventional wisdom (recall 4th and 2 vs Indy) and guess what… they drafted not one, but TWO potential game breaking tight ends in this year’s draft.
From a fantasy perspective, the specific player I really like this year is Oakland’s Zach Miller. A fellow Arizona State Sun Devil, Zach is primed for a breakout season now that he has a stable QB. He is a steal late in drafts this year.
Maggio: I like Antonio Gates a lot this season with Vincent Jackson likely out until Week 11, but I still wouldn’t take him in the top 40. After that it pretty much depends on how the rest of my team is shaping up.
I wouldn’t be too upset if I missed out on him, because there are literally 10 tight ends I would have no trouble starting on a weekly basis, including the aforementioned Miller – and that doesn’t include guys like Kellen Winslow, John Carlson, Greg Olsen, Chris Cooley and Kevin Boss, who all could be of use to fantasy owners. With that kind of depth, it’s easy to wait and make sure I’m set elsewhere before jumping in the tight end pool.
Sundelius: The tight end pool is deeper and more talented than ever, and I love the amount of productive talent that can be found late in the draft. The guy I’m targeting this year is Zach Miller in Oakland. He’s made significant strides in each of his first three seasons, increasing his receptions from 44 to 56 to 66. That number should make another jump in 2010 now that he has a capable NFL quarterback in Jason Campbell throwing him the ball. Look to grab him around the eighth round in standard 12-team leagues and enjoy the TE1 numbers that follow. It’s not unreasonable to expect 75 receptions for 800-900 yards and five scores.
Zoneblitz: Have you seen anything surprising in early drafts you’ve been monitoring?
Lambourne: I am shocked Arian Foster is still being drafted so late. This guy is the clear #1 on a potent offense. Draft him! Visit www.FantasyFootballRiches.com for more advanced strategy and learn how to build an optimal fantasy draft this year!
Maggio: Yes – the inability to find a draft day that works for everyone. I’ve heard of one auction league folding because they couldn’t find a date to work for everyone, and I have one draft that we had to start online because we couldn’t find more than a two-hour window to get everyone together. Another of my drafts has been in limbo for weeks and still doesn’t have a concrete day/time set, and regardless of the final outcome there will be several guys drafting via previously submitted list because they won’t be able to attend or follow along online. I conclude that we all need more free time.
Sundelius: I’m a little surprised to see Tom Brady going as early as he is (ADP of 25th overall). He finished behind seven other quarterbacks in fantasy points last season despite turning in the second-best statistical season of his entire career. In other words, he was near his very best last season and still was only a middle-of-the-road QB1.
With weapons like Randy Moss and Wes Welker a year older (and Welker coming off a significant injury), I don’t see how you can justify using a late second or early third-round pick on him.
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