The NFL lockout is becoming a drag in more ways than one. Sure, it’s kind of cute … well, no, it’s really not cute at all … when players and owners get up in front of cameras or type away on twitter telling fans not to worry because they expect to make a deal in time to ensure that games are not canceled.
Or when the league moves forward with their farcical plan for a two-hour special on NFL Network introducing the schedules for the season that may or may not be played.
The truth is even if the league and the players miraculously settle during forced negotiations this afternoon, the lockout has already gone on long enough to ensure that the quality of play on the field in 2011 will suffer.
Free agency has been postponed for more than a month, leaving teams unsure how they will fill holes from last season. Minicamps have been lost, especially hard for teams with new coaches and new systems. And at this point there is little indication the collective bargaining process will conclude by next week’s NFL draft, so rookies and other new entrants to the league are almost inevitably going to lose at least one and likely more opportunities for pre-training camp instruction with coaches.
That means we are also closing in on the point where, assuming football is played in 2011, the lockout will have a direct effect on fantasy football this season as well. What teams and players benefit from this situation? Will there still be rookies who are worth drafting for your teams in 2011? We at Zoneblitz feel continuity will be key this season but we contacted fantasy football writer Ryan Boser, who contributes to a number of fantasy sites, to see what he thinks.
Zoneblitz: With a shortened free agency period and minicamps already being canceled it would seem to us that continuity and lack of roster turnover will be key to success in 2011. Do you agree?
Ryan Boser: I do, not only on the field but on the sidelines. Teams with new coaching staffs trying to implement new systems are at a real disadvantage the longer this thing drags on. Chemistry is highly underrated. Once the Packers bought in to the program and gelled last season, they were unstoppable.
Zoneblitz: Are there players whose fantasy seasons could benefit from the lockout?
Boser: On the surface, I think it certainly favors veterans. For one, they’re not the guys who need the extra reps. What’s more, the longer the lockout stretches on, the less toll they’ll be putting on their bodies. Take LaDainian Tomlinson, for instance. He hit a wall around Week 6 last season. It’s conceivable that fantasy owners could have gotten two or three extra weeks of production out of him if he’d taken less of a beating prior to the season.
Zoneblitz: How will you project the performance of rookies for fantasy purposes given the likelihood that they are going to miss several minicamp opportunities to learn the systems their new teams will employ?
Boser: Rookies and younger unproven players are the obvious victims of the lockout. As a group, they’ll likely be slower out of the gate than usual as they attempt to process the nuances and speed of the NFL. Many prospects who’d ordinarily be Week 1 starters will begin the season on the bench, as they won’t have the requisite opportunities to earn playing time. That clock begins ticking the wrong way on May 1st.
Zoneblitz: Other than rookies and free agents, are there other players whose fantasy contributions will suffer due to the lockout?
Boser: As I alluded to earlier, anybody who is being forced to learn a new system/playbook is at a disadvantage. Admittedly, I may be over thinking this one, but I’m beginning to wonder how players who are launching themselves into new athletic ventures (boxing, MMA, track and field, soccer) will fare when they’re forced to refocus their efforts and training back on football.
BIO: As a member of Fantasy Sports Writers Association, Ryan Boser contributes writing and commentary to numerous fantasy football media and web outlets. Ryan is also the Minnesota Vikings’ Feature Columnist at Bleacher Report and runs his own website, Out of My League.
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