We’ll update this post as news happens with reaction to all the fantasy relevant trades and signings.
RB Reggie Bush to San Francisco
Move along now. There’s not much to see here. In all seriousness, with Frank Gore leaving for Indianapolis, the 49ers probably wanted some veteran depth. But San Francisco had already prepared for the post-Gore era by drafting Carlos Hyde in 2014. Kendall Hunter remains on the roster, though he’s coming off an injury. So Bush provides some insurance, but he didn’t look all that great in 2014, leading to some questions about just how much there is left in his tank. The biggest beneficiary of this move, most likely, is Joique Bell, who at times has shown RB2 or maybe even RB1A skills for a fantasy team that builds around receivers and QBs. Bush probably will be rostered in some leagues, but he won’t come close to being selected in all. Late-round flyer? Maybe. For my money, though, I’d rather go for someone younger with more upside at that point in a redraft league. — Andy
I made clear on Twitter that Mike Wallace is not my favorite player. Guys who (allegedly) ask out of games because they are not getting the ball anger me more than hunger. But he did catch 69 passes and 10 touchdowns last season in an offense that, theoretically, was not as good a fit for him as Norv Turner’s should be. The risk is minimal to the Vikings. If Wallace gets out of line, they can cut him with little lost. The beauty on the field may be as much for the RBs who have more space to run, for guys like Jerrious Wright and Kyle Rudolph, who have more room to run routes with a true field-stretching receiver in the m idst. But Wallace could really benefit here. I’m not spending a lot to get him, but he’s in the mix as a pretty solid WR2 or a really good WR3, in my eyes. –Andy
RB DeMarco Murray and RB Ryan Mathews to Philadelphia
The Eagles’ overhaul continued with both Mathews and Murray inking new deals in the city where it’s always sunny. There was room for a bellcow back with LeSean McCoy shipped off to Buffalo, but certainly not room for two as far as fantasy owners are concerned. It’s not terribly difficult to deduce a drop in fantasy value for both players based on their change in situation, as not even Philly’s uptempo offense can provide the carries needed for both backs and Darren Sproles to all be top-tier options. In fact, despite being second and first in plays from scrimmage the last two seasons, respectively, the Eagles were just seventh and fourth in overall rushing attempts. So while Murray based on track record is the first Philly back I want, he’s fallen out of the top 10 for me while Mathews becomes a handcuff with benefits. Chip Kelly certainly will want to limit Murray’s touches to an extent after his heavy workload in 2014, not to mention his injury history prior to last season. Mathews is no stranger to the trainer’s table either, so I anticipate plenty of opportunities where one or the other will get all of the work as the other guy sits due to injury. But you can’t know in August when that will be, so it’s a big roll of the dice to grab Murray without saving a spot for Mathews, and little more than a dart throw grabbing Mathews without first taking Murray. — Anthony
Donte Moncrief owners in dynasty leagues likely shed a tear or two with this news, but after toiling away with subpar quarterbacks on subpar teams throughout his career, Johnson is now officially a Colt. Hard to think of a better scenario for him—he steps right into a role vacated by Reggie Wayne, he’s playing with one of the best quarterbacks in the league on a team that made the AFC title game in 2014 and is still on the come, and he gets to stick it to his former club twice next season along the way. Throw in a reunion with college teammate Frank Gore, and Indy’s high-powered offense just got that much stronger. Johnson and teammate TY Hilton are different in what they do on the field, but talented enough to be in a 1 and 1A situation—with Johnson playing the role of 1A. His career may be winding down, but he’s still a solid WR2 in 2015, and likely going to be underpriced based on his age (34 when the season kicks off) and relatively down 2014 (936 yards on “only” 85 receptions). –Anthony
WR Brandon Marshall to NY Jets for 5th-round pick
I certainly didn’t expect Marshall had seen his last snap with the Bears when he broke two ribs and punctured a lung in early December against the Dallas Cowboys, but Chicago’s new regime apparently didn’t want to deal with the mercurial talent. On the Bears’ side of things, Alshon Jeffery’s outlook remains largely unchanged. I think he’ll get more targets, but also more attention from opposing defenses. If I had to pick one side of the coin or the other I’d say this slightly hurts his value, but dynasty owners needn’t worry much. Marquess Wilson, meanwhile, is thrust into fantasy relevance as the clear No. 2 option for the time being. As for Marshall, I think he takes a clear step back, though is talented enough to remain a low-end WR2 in 12-team leagues. Ryan Fitzpatrick is no Joe Namath, but he did manage to help Stevie Johnson put up back-to-back 1,000-yard campaigns in Buffalo his last two full seasons as a starter (2011 and 2012) and kept both Andre Johnson and DeAndre Hopkins fantasy relevant last season. And with the Jets he moves behind an offensive line that Pro Football Focus graded out better in pass blocking last season compared with Houston. Opposite Marshall, Eric Decker is another big receiver—much like Jeffery across from him in Chicago the last two seasons—so Marshall won’t be the exclusive primary focus of opposing secondaries. — Anthony
WR Jeremy Maclin to Kansas City
Let me start by noting that nothing I’m about to show you is precise. In fact, this is rough and sloppy, but it’s only meant to illustrate a larger point, not give exact predictions. Maclin’s stats are going to take a big hit in Kansas City. Why? Here’s that bad math I was talking about (note, feel free to jump to the conclusion below if you want to just trust me): Maclin caught 85 of 113 targets last season on a team that was fifth in the league with 621 pass attempts. That’s a catch rate of 75% with an 18% target rate. He was also 11th in the league at 15.5 yards per catch. Meanwhile, Kansas City’s leader in yards per catch was Travis Kelce at 12.9—tied for 50th. The offenses themselves weren’t on opposite ends of the spectrum despite common assumption, as Philly’s 7.4 yards per attempt was only 13 spots better than Kansas City’s 7.0. And since the Eagles only notched 12 more 25+-yard passing plays than the Chiefs last year with better personnel, I’m going to just assume Maclin’s presence can elevate his new squad’s passing offense to keep Maclin right around his career mark of 13.9 ypc. Let’s call it 14 for easy math. If I haven’t lost you yet, hang on, I’m almost done. Kansas City only threw the ball 493 times last season, but completed 320 of them for a 65% completion rate—better than the 62% Philly posted. Still, at 493 pass attempts, Maclin—even if his target rate went up to 20% and his catch rate incrementally improved to say 77%, would still only catch 76 balls. And at 14 yards per catch, that’s 1,063 yards. In other words, even in my best-case scenario for Maclin, he’d still lose 250 yards off his total from last year, and we haven’t even talked touchdowns yet. Philly threw 27 in 2014, Kansas City threw 18. Even if Maclin can help up that mark to 20, you’re looking at a max of seven touchdowns for him at his rate from last season.
Conclusion: Based on that horribly rough illustration above, Maclin, in a best-case scenario, would score 43 fewer fantasy points in 2015 versus 2014. What’s that look like in player terms? Basically it was the difference between Maclin and Mike Wallace. — Anthony
Frank Gore’s days in San Francisco seemed numbered based on his lack of contract, the stable of running backs behind him, and his relative old age for a running back. But the 49ers’ loss became Indianapolis’ gain, as Gore agreed on a three-year pact with the Colts. Five years ago I’d have been a little less optimistic about this signing just based on the way NFL running backs were used, but now that most teams are trending towards a two-back minimum, a Gore/Ahmad Bradshaw one-two punch (for the games Bradshaw’s actually healthy for) with Dan Herron ready to step in where necessary certainly has some viability. Gore won’t be anyone’s RB1, and will only be RB2 material in deeper leagues, but he’s at the top of the list for RB3/FLEX territory at worst—and the Colts could choose to use him even more than I’m anticipating. Regardless, we haven’t come to the end of the road in terms of Gore’s fantasy usefulness just yet. Meanwhile, in San Francisco, Carlos Hyde vaults into the top 10 at the running back position, as he’s the assumed bell-cow back. — Anthony
QB Sam Bradford to Philadelphia for QB Nick Foles
This is a huge trade in the sense that trades don’t often happen in the NFL, and starting quarterback trades are the rarest of rare occasions. The fantasy side of this is less earth shaking, but still plenty noteworthy. In St. Louis, the Rams get to push the reset button on what’s been the bust of a first overall pick thanks to injuries, and get a quarterback who’s performed capably at the NFL level for two seasons. However, I do think quite a bit of Foles’ success was system-dependent, and there aren’t the receiving weapons in St. Louis to have me terribly excited about Foles’ prospects there. He’ll be lucky to find himself in my top 20 at the position come August. As for Philly, this could be huge news for Bradford—or it could be nothing. Considering the Eagles re-signed Mark Sanchez for better-than-backup money (two years, $9 million), Bradford likely is coming in to challenge Sanchez for a starting job—not have it handed to him. If Bradford wins the role he’ll have to play well this preseason, which in turn would make him enticing enough to be a top 15 fantasy quarterback come draft time. We’ve already seen Sanchez perform capably, but not spectacularly, and with Jeremy Maclin and LeSean McCoy both gone, he’s not going to find himself much better than 15th at the position in my rankings if he’s named the starter. – Anthony
TE Jimmy Graham and 4th-round pick to Seattle for C Max Unger and 1st-round pick
I don’t know what alternate universe we’re in with all of these big-name trades, but I love it! The Saints obviously decided they weren’t going to break the bank for a long-term deal on Graham, so instead gave their offensive line a huge boost and upgraded picks. The easy analysis is this hurts their passing game, but boosts their run game. With Mark Ingram having re-upped already this offseason, we’re seeing New Orleans’ future offensive plans take shape based on personnel moves. Drew Brees won’t have the ball taken out of his hands entirely, but this move hurts his stock big time—moving him to the back half of the top 10. Graham, meanwhile, goes from a pass-happy offense to a run-happy one. It’s a big hit, but not a devastating one. He’s not in the conversation with Rob Gronkowski for No. 1 at the position any longer, but he’s still in the conversation with Julius Thomas for No. 2. Tight ends actually combined for more receptions than all Seattle receivers except for Doug Baldwin’s 66 in 2014, and I would anticipate Graham to easily eclipse the 48 combined catches of that group. That said, his ceiling is much lower, taking him out of the discussion in the first three draft rounds of all but the largest of fantasy leagues. — Anthony
RB LeSean McCoy to Buffalo for LB Kiko AlonsoSee my in-depth reaction to the news here.
Loading ...
Recent Comments