Editor’s Note: The end of the 2015 season does not put football to bed. Now is the time to start examining what you did right and what you did wrong, so you don’t repeat mistakes in 2016. We’ll be taking a look at several players whose seasons surprised us and analyzing whether they are an indication of what is to come – Fact – or an aberration – Fantasy.

When Jordy Nelson got hurt during the preseason, everyone knew the offensive task for Green Bay would be more fact-fantasydifficult during the 2015 season. But none of the projections I saw projected the degree to which the Packers would struggle.

Aaron Rodgers‘ quarterback rating dropped from 112.2 to 92.7, nearly 20 points, which was his lowest output since becoming a starter. His yardage count dropped by more than 500 yards and he threw just 31 TDs, down from 38 in 2014.

So were injuries the crux of Rodgers’ falloff? Will he regain his status as a top two fantasy QB in 2016? Or are the problems he and the rest of the offense suffered through last season a sign of things to come?

John: Fact

Aaron Rodgers went from fantasy stud to average Joe this season, finishing as the QB9, bunched up with other fantasy stalwarts such as Kirk Cousins and Ryan Fitzpatrick. Not exactly the output fantasy owners were hoping to get from a second-round pick.

Now, there were a lot of factors at play here, including a hapless Packers offensive line and the lack of weapons following the loss of Nelson—and I fully expect Green Bay to address those issues this offseason. And, as a result, Rodgers should be better next year.

Then why am I still selling on Rodgers’ fantasy outlook for 2016?

It’s not so much about Rodgers as it is about broader fantasy strategy. His disappointing season underscores why QB streaming is the way to go nowadays—you can plenty of options capable of keeping you in the game from week to week.

So don’t waste your early draft capital on Rodgers. You’ll be way better off grabbing a young wide receiver or running back instead.

Andy: Fantasy

Green Bay and Aaron Rodgers suffered through more than just the injury to Nelson in 2015. Eddie Lacy, one of the league’s top RBs in 2014, came to camp looking like the Pillsbury Doughboy and he played like it nearly all season.

The offensive line struggled compared to its nearly elite level performance in 2015 and it was especially questionable when LT David Bakhtiari missed time. It’s been a long time since Rodgers had to run around that much.

The entire offense seemed to struggle as head coach Mike McCarthy turned play calling over to Tom Clements.

Additionally, Randall Cobb proved that he’s more of a number two receiver than a number one – he struggled to fill the leadership role, a fact compounded by the additional struggles of Davante Adams to make the next step in his development.

But all is not lost. Jeff Janis did not get much of a chance during the regular season to show his wares, but his 7-145-2 output in the Packers’ 26-20 loss to Arizona in the playoffs showed that he at least has the talent within him to be a contributor. One would guess that he’ll push Adams for the No. 3 WR position next year when Nelson returns.

My guess is that with McCarthy reclaiming play calling, the OL returning to health, Nelson coming back strong and Rodgers himself recovered from a minor knee cleanup, the star QB will put up numbers more closely in line with the results he produced from 2009-2014.

That said, I do agree with John in one respect. With Rodgers and Indianapolis’ Andrew Luck both struggling through 2015, the upper echelon of fantasy QBs has tightened up considerably. Cam Newton and Russell Wilson both upped their game to the elite level. Guys like Ben Roethlisberger, Philip Rivers and Eli Manning all played at elite levels during various chunks of the season.

And youngsters like Blake Bortles and Cousins also produced top notch stats at times. All can be had later than you’ll have to take Rodgers. While the Packers’ offense is likely to rebound, it might not be a bad idea to hold off on drafting your QB until later.

Next Fact/Fantasy: Russell Wilson & Doug Baldwin