Through nine games in 2015, Seattle was struggling along at 4-5, with Marshawn Lynch having an injury-plagued fact-fantasyseason and seemingly nothing clicking.

Then the coaching staff took the training wheels off QB Russell Wilson and the fourth-year starter turned his and the team’s season around.

Wilson threw 24 of his 34 TDs last season during the 6-1 stretch that pushed the Seahawks back into the postseason. On the receiving end of 11 of those scores during the seven-game stretch was Doug Baldwin, who’d had a pedestrian three TDs during the first nine games.

Can the duo repeat the success it posted during that magical seven game run? Or was it just one of those stretches where everything goes right?

Tony: Wilson & Baldwin Fiction

Baldwin put up solid numbers in 2015, but at the end of the day, most of the damage he did came in weeks 11 to 15. Week 11 also just happened to be the week Jimmy Graham went down with a season ending injury. It’s not yet clear exactly how this led to Baldwin exploding onto the scene—it’s not like Graham was putting up gaudy numbers before he went down. But until Russell Wilson and the Seahawks prove that they’ve figured out how to integrate both Graham and Baldwin, I’m not going to hold my breath.

Even beyond the Graham/Baldwin breakdown, the stats themselves aren’t all that impressive beyond the 14 touchdowns, which could very easily be a fluke. Only twice all season (Week 9 and Week 15) was Baldwin targeted 10 times, and from week 3 to week 8, he was targeted just 23 times—that’s six weeks early in the season you can’t afford to have a top WR missing time. He also only put up 100-plus yards just three times, meaning 40 percent of his yardage (and 36 percent of his touchdowns) came in just three weeks.  Good luck picking the right three weeks.

Add in other question marks about the Seahawks offense—can Thomas Rawls come back from injury and maintain the presence he had in 2015 in replacing Marshawn Lynch, can Graham come back healthy, does Russell Wilson finally getting laid set him back as a quarterback—and you’ve got a situation that I want nothing to do with.

Regarding Wilson, he deserves a lot of credit for 2015. He finally proved enough that I may take him off my “Will Not Draft” list in 2016, and I may finally have to stop using the line that I prefer my quarterbacks to be able to ride ALL the roller coasters as my excuse.

That being said—he was being hyped by many as the number three fantasy quarterback last year, and I can only imagine again this year—but he will be nowhere near the top of my list. He’ll be somewhere in the range of “Ok, I guess I can draft a backup QB” and “Oh crap, I still need a QB and everyone else is gone except Eli Manning and Joe Flacco” for me.

I know, he made the Pro Bowl again (so did Teddy Bridgewater).  I know, he threw for 34 touchdowns (the first time he’s had more than 26), and over 4,000 yards (the first time he’s passed 3,500). I know, he keeps plays alive with his feet (although he “only” put up 553 yards rushing last year, and only scored once on the ground—not exactly “Cam like.”)

But he really seemed to struggle early in the season, given that the Seahawks added Jimmy Graham—the didn’t seem to mesh well together early, and I suspect that Wilson may have had some issues with pass protection after losing Max Unger in the Graham trade.  And if you look at his season stats, 24 of his 34 touchdowns came from week 10 and later—great for an NFL team facing crunch time, not great for a fantasy team trying to get to crunch time. In his first 9 weeks, he put up multiple touchdowns just once—week 2 against the Green Bay Packers, when he put up 206 yards (his season low, other than week 17).

If Russell Wilson can continue his hot streak into 2016—with a new running back that is recovering from injury, a tight end that didn’t mesh well before being injured, and a new left tackle—then in 2017, maybe I’ll move him up my draft list. All the way to the “OK, I’ll draft him after everybody I really want is gone” spot.

Andy: Wilson Fact, Baldwin Fiction

The numbers are cited above, so I won’t regurgitate them. But I look at them a bit differently than Tony.

I agree that the stretch Baldwin had was a magical one, one that likely won’t be repeated. Hell, who in the history of the game has had a stretch of 11 TD catches in five games? I don’t know the answer, but I’m guessing it’s not many.

I do think Baldwin has shown himself to be a solid receiver. I think he could hit 1,000 yards again and I don’t think double-digits for TDs is out of the question. The reason I think he has a bit of a ceiling is the talent around him.

Tony mentioned Jimmy Graham. But let’s not forget Rawls – who looked great filling in for Lynch – coming back at RB and, in particular, let’s not forget about Tyler Lockett, who put up 664 yards and six TDs in his rookie year. The Pro Bowl WR and return man may be best suited for the slot, but he’s a playmaker – a guy you want to get the ball to. Add in Jermaine Kearse returning and you’ve got a pretty solid collection of skill players. So, no, I don’t think Baldwin duplicates his 2015 success in 2016.

But that collection of skill players also is the reason why I think Wilson does have a chance to exceed the numbers he put up last year. I don’t see all of Seattle’s games, but the Seahawks are on national TV often enough to see a lot of them. He just looked like a different QB during the second half of the season when the team let him start winging the ball around.

I don’t think the Seahawks are suddenly going to but the training wheels back on, either. The yardage numbers weren’t staggering – just one 300-plus yard game all season, but the yards per attempt went up, the completion percentage went up, the TD count followed and the Seahawks started scoring more points. He should have a run game that complements his more aggressive passing efforts. And, as mentioned, the weapons around him are enough and could still improve.

I don’t know if I’d take him as the number three QB in a fantasy league – I haven’t quite gotten around to rankings yet – but he’s going to be higher than I’ve ever had him before.

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