Devonta Freeman was an afterthought in many fantasy drafts at the start of the 2015 season. But he ended the year fact-fantasyas the overall RB1, tallying a jaw-dropping 1,639 total yards and 14 TDs.

He was particularly strong through the first seven weeks of the season, posting four 100 yard rushing games and posting two games in which he rushed for three TDs.

The second half of his season wasn’t as strong, however. When the Falcons fell apart, so did his production. Can Freeman step it up again in 2016? Or will the 2014 season and the second half of 2015 prove to be more accurate portrayals of who he is as a player?

John Vomhof Jr.: Fantasy

Freeman is only 24 years old, and he hasn’t suffered any major injuries during his first two years in the league. Plus, I love running backs who catch the ball—he caught 73 passes last year—because they remain factors regardless of game script.

There’s a heck of a lot to like about Freeman after his breakout 2015… And yet I just can’t bring myself to buy into the hype.

Here’s my problem: He’s currently coming off the board with the 13th overall pick, far too rich for my taste.

Could he turn in another monster season? Sure, but I think he could just as easily be this year’s Jeremy Hill or C.J. Anderson—an early round running back who busts out and torpedoes your entire draft.

Upon closer review, last year’s gaudy numbers lose some of their luster. After absolutely dominating Weeks 3-7, Freeman’s output really dropped off.

He only topped 4.0 yards per carry once in the second half of the season, and that was a 3-43 game against the Colts that included a 39-yard run. And 10 of his 14 TDs came during the first six weeks of the season.

I need a lot more consistency than that from my top picks. Championships aren’t won in Week 6.

And don’t forget that Atlanta used a third-round pick on speedster Tevin Coleman last year, and he actually beat out Freeman for the starting job in training camp. But Coleman got hurt, and Freeman ended up Wally Pipp-ing him. It’s not that far-fetched to think the opposite could happen this year.

Take a pass on Freeman and let someone else overpay. You’ll find more value in WRs like A.J. Green and Jordy Nelson.

Andy: Fantasy

I agree with John, though I think it took him too long to get to the reason why. Heading into the 2015 season, which Atlanta back were we hearing the most buzz from? Who were you making sure to get on your fantasy rosters?

The Falcons took Tevin Coleman in the third round in 2015, in part, because they were disappointed in what Freeman showed as a rookie in 2014. Sure, Freeman turned that around for at least a chunk of 2015 – and kudos to him for taking advantage of the opportunity provided by Coleman’s injury.

But the NFL of the 2010s is largely a rotating back league and Atlanta is going to take advantage of the fact that they have two solid backs they can rotate. Both will be fantasy relevant. At times one or the other might be fantasy fantastic.

But the idea that one of these guys is going to come in and take 80 percent of the work is, in my eyes, ludicrous. As John cites above, Freeman’s first six games were great, but after that he fell off dramatically. He didn’t break 100 yards rushing after week seven. And, in his time in the NFL, he posts a relatively pedestrian 4.0 ypc – it was 3.8 ypc in his disappointing rookie season.

My guess is the team will say it’s a workload issue and they’ll work hard to make sure that both guys stay fresh by giving Coleman more work at the expense of Freeman. Freeman may end up with 60 percent to Coleman’s 40 percent – or it could be the other way around. He’s had some spectacular moments, but you can fashion a fairly coherent argument that says Freeman just frankly isn’t that good.

I won’t go that far. There is a place for Freeman in the NFL. He is a decent back – a complementary one, not a great one. And I will predict this: He will never again have a seven game stretch like the one he had to start 2015.

Regardless of whether you buy that last argument or not, Freeman isn’t going to get the opportunity he needs to duplicate the numbers he posted in 2015. Look elsewhere, at least through the first few rounds of your drafts.

Previous Fact or Fantasy: Russell Wilson/Doug Baldwin
Next Fact or Fantasy: Allen Robinson