“Sleeper” is arguably the most overused of the many fantasy buzzwords out there. Everyone who plays fantasy football has the guys pegged they think will far outperform their draft position and will be absolutely giddy when they land the player—sometimes regardless of cost. But with scores of fantasy football writers out there firing their sleepers throughout the internet, and the masses gobbling them up and claiming said sleepers as their own, often-times the shine has worn off of sleepers by the time draft day rolls around. After all, if everyone thinks a guy is a sleeper, he’s no longer a sleeper.

Thus, I bring you the value/reach segment I hope to supply a handful of times during fantasy draft season, where I use the ADP data from www.mockdraftcentral.com to enlighten you on who is going for value, and who’s sleeper status has been jeopardized. For starters, let’s stick with the top 100. I’ll venture into the deeper territory in later iterations of this article.

VALUE

Stevan Ridley (24th overall, 13th running back)

My early standard rankings have Ridley at No. 11 in the RB rankings, but that could be low. But as it currently stands, Ridley is being drafted right after Andre Johnson and Rob Gronkowski, and right before Montee Ball and Chris Johnson. There are a few reasons to take umbrage here, but I’ll simply say this: the New England Patriots have arguably the best offensive line in football, and enter the season with huge question marks in the passing game. This means top-five upside for the third-year back.

Jimmy Graham (30th overall, 2nd tight end)

Rather than complain in the latter section of this article about Gronkowski being the first tight end off the board despite the injury issues, I’ll tout the value of the ultra-reliable Graham coming in just after Demaryius Thomas and Vincent Jackson. Thomas, maybe. But Jackson, no sir. Throw in guys like Gronk, Ball and Maurice Jones-Drew all going before Graham, and I’ll gladly wait to take the league’s most valuable tight end.

Tony Gonzalez (78th overall, 3rd tight end)

As much as I like Graham’s value, Gonzalez actually provides much more bang for your buck. Although he’s the next tight end off the board after Graham, he’s a whopping 48 picks behind him. Zac Stacy and Mikel LeShoure are going off the board right before him, followed by Mark Ingram and Dennis Pitta. Throw in Tony Romo, Mike Williams, Eddie Lacy and Vick Ballard, and you’ve got almost a round’s worth of players I wouldn’t even consider before Gonzo was gone.

Cecil Shorts (82nd overall, 33rd wide receiver)

I can understand not being sold on Jacksonville’s offense as a whole, but that’s not enough to knock Shorts down this far. I’ve got him at 26th at the position heading into training camp, which he earned not only with his big plays last season, but also with fellow starter Justin Blackmon suspended for the first four games this season and Shorts left to pick up the slack. Torrey Smith and Antonio Brown are both going about 10 picks before Shorts early in the mock draft season, and both are guys I wouldn’t take until Shorts was off the board.

REACH

Montee Ball (25th overall, 14th running back)

I like Ball as a No. 2 fantasy back this year, but more in the No. 20 range overall at the position. I noted above Johnson and Forte going right after Ball in mocks, and Frank Gore is the next back off the board right now. I’d without question grab all three before taking a shot on the rookie.

Russell Wilson (37th overall, 7th quarterback)

Wilson is a better quarterback than fantasy quarterback, but his second-half steam is carrying over into this offseason. I like the guy, and I think he’s a fantasy starter in deep leagues. But he’s not worth the price of admission at this point. I find it especially odd that while Colin Kaepernick is only five spots behind him, the next grouping of quarterbacks aren’t coming off the board until picks 67 through 70. You really want Wilson at 37 instead of Andrew Luck at 69? Didn’t think so.

Lamar Miller (38th overall, 18th running back)

Miller has the chance to be an extremely productive fantasy back this year. But as the 18th back off the board, people are expecting him to be a high-end No. 2. Sorry, I just can’t draft him with the expectation of Miller hitting on his best-case scenario. A low end No. 2, sure. A flex guy, definitely. But I’ll go ahead and wait for guys like DeMarco Murray, Le’Veon Bell and Darren McFadden, who are all going after Miller.

Tony Romo (67th overall, 9th quarterback)

Is this just because he’s a Dallas Cowboy and the bandwagon/casual types can get behind the Cowboys? I’m not a huge Romo critic and even think he’s got weekly fantasy starter potential. But again, why pay for that when the very next guys going off the board are Matthew Stafford, Luck and Robert Griffin? Don’t like Griffin’s injury comeback chances? Fine. But do yourself a favor and take Stafford or Luck and let someone else take their shot with Romo.

Michael Floyd (88th overall, 36th wide receiver)

I like Arizona Cardinals’ offseason moves plenty, as Carson Palmer in Bruce Arians’ system could pay off big. But I think this is a classic case of a sleeper gaining too much steam and his draft position paying the price. He was a sleeper on my original rankings at No. 57, where you could make the case I was five or 10 spots too tough on him. But at 36, he’s going as a WR3. Here’s a quick list of the 10 guys going after him: Sidney Rice, Jeremy Maclin, Kenny Britt, Josh Gordon, Miles Austin, Stevie Johnson, Tavon Austin, Denarius Moore, DeSean Jackson and Lance Moore. Maybe I’m the crazy one, but I’d take all 10 before Larry Fitzgerald’s caddy.

To read Anthony Maggio’s preseason ratings see the links below.

For ZoneBlitz.com’s quarterback ratings, click here.
For ZoneBlitz.com’s running back ratings, click here.
For ZoneBlitz.com’s wide receiver ratings, click here.
For ZoneBlitz.com’s tight end ratings, click here.
For ZoneBlitz.com’s kicker ratings, click here.