(Don’t) Bet the Mortgage – Week 9, 2020

Man, these two really don’t know what they’re doing this year. Last year it looked like they were starting to figure out the betting game, at least a little bit. This year, two losses for every win. Not a good look.

Oh well. Here are the standings.

And the bets. Remember, don’t attempt what these two are doing – they are trained professionals. And objects in your mirror may be closer than they appear.

Andy – Gonna have to do a little bit of deficit betting here this week. Hopefully I don’t end up with a couple mythical broken fingers out of the deal.

$750 – Jacksonville (+6.5, -110) vs Houston – Ok, the Jaguars are bad and they are likely starting rookie Jake Luton. What has Houston done to be a 6.5 favorite against anyone anywhere, much less in a divisional road game? They might win, but who cares. Jags cover. … Then again, a willingness to bet on the Jaguars, even if it is just pretend money, may be why I’m nearly broke halfway through the season.

$500 – Las Vegas (+1.5, -110) at L.A. Chargers – Justin Herbert has played well and the Chargers have been in a lot of games, but they have not closed the deal very often. The Raiders are actually not bad. This line confuses me more than a little … then again, most lines have confused me more than a little this year – I just haven’t been able to figure them out until after the fact.

$800 – Baltimore (-3, +100) at Indianapolis – I’m not saying the Colts are a bad team. I am saying their 5-3 record has been built with wins against teams with a combined 12-25-1 record. Take out a solid win against Chicago and that drops to 7-22-1. Meanwhile, Baltimore’s two losses have come against teams with a combined 14-1 record. The Ravens are better tested, have a better QB and are not getting enough credit by the oddsmakers.

$300 – Detroit (+165 money line) at Minnesota – I was going to swear off betting on Vikings games, but this one feels so Minnesota. Now that they’ve dominated a tough road game against Green Bay and, perhaps, staved off being sellers at the deadline (STUPID, STUPID, STUPID, STUPID), it’d be just like this outfit to lay a growler on its home turf against the Detroit Detroiters, who would probably just as easily prefer to lose given the likelihood it gets Matt Patricia one loss closer to gone.

Tony – Classic week to break out the Costanza method of betting…

$1,000 – Indianapolis (+1.5, +100) vs Baltimore – The Ravens should dominate this game, which is why I’m betting against it.

$1,000 – New Orleans (+4.5, -110) at Tampa Bay – In a battle of quarterbacks that have a combined age of damn near dead…Alvin Kamara will find a way to win it. Maybe even Michael Thomas.

$1,000 – Houston at Jacksonville: Over 50.5 (-110) – I almost went Las Vegas at LA Chargers: (Over 51.5), but realized that was logic talking. Backup QB on a bad team vs an great QB with no offensive weapons–why wouldn’t you bet the over?

$500 – Chicago (+245 money line) at Tennessee – The Bears might be the worst 5-3 team in recent history. They certainly are ugly on offense. But the Titans haven’t been playing well either, and the Bears could conceivably slow down Derrick Henry.