Denver has won 38 games over the last three regular seasons, often looking dominant in doing so. But while that part of the schedule has produced success, each of the postseason runs associated with those seasons has ended in disappointment.
After another early post-season exit to Indianapolis, John Elway made some major changes. Gary Kubiak replaces John Fox as the head coach. Several key contributors on the field – including WR Wes Welker, TE Julius Thomas and DT Terrance Knighton – have moved on, as well.
But future Hall of Fame QB Peyton Manning returns for at least one more run. He looked bad while playing through injury the last month-and-change of 2014, but the first part of that season and the entirety of 2013 give at least some hope that he’s still got enough left in the tank to make one more run. Is 2015 the year Peyton rides off into the sunset carrying a Lombardi Trophy?
Sayre Bedinger, editor at Predominantly Orange, shares his thoughts.
Zoneblitz: Denver had another top-notch regular season at 12-4, but missed the mark in the postseason. How would you assess the season?
Bedinger: I think we learned a lot, but to assess it in terms of reaching their ultimate goal (winning the Super Bowl) it was a failure. Losing to the Colts in the playoffs was an embarrassment, especially since it was at home. The collapse last year was a reflection of poor coaching, decision making (keeping Manning on the field for the last month of the season), and offensive execution. 12-4 is not a bad record, but it was a tough season for Denver fans to swallow.
Zoneblitz: The last three seasons have resulted in a 38-10 mark, but with the postseason struggles, was moving on from John Fox the right answer?
Bedinger: Yes, absolutely. Fox was too conservative for what this team wanted to accomplish. Too many big games they weren’t prepared as a coaching staff and as a team. Too many times were decisions made that, in the long term, hurt the team. I know it might be conspiracy, but there’s also a theory out there that none of Fox, Jack Del Rio, or Adam Gase wanted to be there as new opportunities around the league had come about. I’m not making accusations, but the results speak for themselves.
Zoneblitz: Peyton Manning was obviously struggling with injuries at the end of 2014. What’s he got left? Any worries that his tank may be on empty heading into 2015? And how are you feeling about Brock Osweiler as a backup plan?
Bedinger: I think Manning can still play at a really high level, but when he was hurt, he was a hindrance to the team more than anything. The last month of the season, he should have been instructed to sit out, the Broncos find a way to win the division or make the playoffs anyway, and Manning could have taken over after a five or six week break. I don’t really have any worries that his tank is empty. I don’t think he’d play if that were the case.
As for Osweiler, I really like him. The team showed a lot of confidence in him not taking anyone else this year in the draft until the 7th round, but I’d be curious to know what would have happened to Osweiler if Tyrod Taylor would have been signed, as there were rumors the Broncos wanted him. I think of him more as a long term replacement than a good backup plan.
Zoneblitz: What do you think of the Gary Kubiak hire? What impact will that have on the season?
Bedinger: I’m not saying John Elway should just go and hire all his buddies, but bringing in Kubiak was probably the best case scenario the Broncos could have asked for because you get a guy who has been part of a Super Bowl culture in Denver, who has proven he can build a winner from the ground up, and who knows how to get the best out of players. His system is obviously very successful as well, and having a guy who loves the Broncos is a major plus.
It’s a perfect match, and I think Kubiak’s impact and presence will be felt early and often.
Zoneblitz: Who fills the roles left open by Wes Welker and Julius Thomas? Is Cody Latimer to step up? Who else?
Bedinger: Replacing Welker in the slot will be Emmanuel Sanders, I imagine, with Latimer taking his place on the outside. But, truth be told, the offense will look a heck of a lot different. Thomas is going to be replaced in the starting lineup by free agent pickup Owen Daniels, who has never not played under Gary Kubiak. He is getting older, but he’s a really good player still and offers the Broncos some time to develop a guy like Jeff Heuerman, who sadly tore his ACL in the first rookie minicamp.
On Latimer, I think he’s ready to step up and he really has to be. He’s so talented and the whole package is there, Broncos fans were absolutely shocked he didn’t see more snaps last year. This year, he’s ready for a breakout and I think he’s going to have a huge year.
In addition to Latimer, a name to watch at WR is Jordan Norwood, who had the roster made last year prior to a major knee injury. He can play the slot and also return punts.
Zoneblitz: C.J. Anderson is an early favorite of the fantasy community, going in the first round in many drafts. But there are other name backs on the roster – how does the workload between him, Montee Ball and Ronnie Hillman split up?
Bedinger: This is a tough question. We’ve seen, with the zone scheme in Denver, multiple guys nearly go for a thousand yards, or a few guys play smaller roles. I think the Broncos have a great young stable of backs but I believe Montee Ball is going to have every opportunity to take C.J. Anderson’s job and even if he doesn’t get it, we could see an 18-12 carry ratio for those guys, or something like that.
For Hillman, there’s also added value on third downs as a receiver, but Kubiak is going to have to have fun and get creative having these guys on the field this season. Lots of talent there.
Zoneblitz: The defense actually improved from 19th to 3rd in yards allowed and 22nd to 16th in points allowed – what happened there?
Bedinger: A healthy Von Miller equals a better Denver defense. Plain and simple. Miller is the best player on the team along with Chris Harris Jr., and I think the additions of DeMarcus Ware, Aqib Talib, and T.J. Ward paid big dividends later in the season. Linebacker Brandon Marshall was also a stud for the Broncos last year and came out of nowhere.
Zoneblitz: In safety Darian Stewart, DT Vance Walker and DE Antonio Smith Denver made some low risk investments on the defensive side – do you expect any of those signings to have an impact? Do they offset the loss of guys like Terrance Knighton, Rahim Moore and Nate Irving? What else has to happen for the defense to take a step forward again in 2015?
Bedinger: I think Stewart is a step forward from Moore, to be honest, but losing Knighton kind of hurts. He was a team captain and a catalyst for the run defense being as good as it was. Walker and Smith know the 3-4 defense and they get pressure on the QB and attack upfield, where Knighton is more a guy who occupies blockers.
I think moving on from Irving will be a piece of cake with Danny Trevathan coming back from injury.
Zoneblitz: Collectively, what are your thoughts on the offseason to date and what would you like to see the team do through the rest of the offseason?
Bedinger: I was stunned and thrilled at the same time to have gotten Shane Ray out of the draft. Free agency was underwhelming but that was sort of expected. I think the Broncos are going to be in a position where they have to ‘overachieve’ this year in order to contend for a title, which I’m okay with because they haven’t done well as the odds-on favorites the last couple of years.
The rest of the offseason, I don’t think they need to make many more upgrades on the roster but I would like to see Demaryius Thomas‘ situation resolved. He’s holding out after getting the franchise tag, as is typical, but the longer he’s away from the team, the worse off I think things will be for all involved.
Zoneblitz: What Broncos players have a chance to break out in 2015?
Bedinger: WR Cody Latimer, TE Virgil Green, LG Ben Garland, DT Sylvester Williams would be my top picks there. Also, Bradley Roby is going to be a star. Keep him on your radar.
Zoneblitz: What are your expectations as far as another deep playoff run? Does this team still have a window?
Bedinger: The window is still there but it’s closing. The Broncos should have no expectation this season less than winning a title. It’s still an incredibly talented roster.
Follow Sayre Bedinger on Twitter at: @SayreBedinger
Follow Predominantly Orange on Twitter at: @PredomOrange
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It’s going to be an interesting year to say the least. Hoping the zone blocking scheme improves the running game tremendously. If it does I think they will have a very good chance to do what they expected to do when they signed PFM. Not sure if the defense will be better or worse going to the 3-4, but I do think it will be more aggressive. As always time will tell. Good read.