A year removed from a 2-14 disaster, discussing the playoffs in Kansas City might have been seen as a bit ludicrous. But there was definitely talent on the roster and when Chiefs jumped out of the gate 9-0 it looked like the team might redefine worst-to-first.
The team slumped a bit in the second half of the season but still managed to nail an 11 win campaign that concluded with an exciting-but-heartbreaking loss to Indianapolis.
A few starters, including left tackle Branden Albert, are gone off of the 2013 Chiefs, but Alex Smith and Co. return with a deeper run in mind. How viable is that? Ben Nielsen, editor of Arrowhead Addict, says the schedule will provide some challenges, but adds that this should still be a very good Chiefs team with a lot of potential in 2014 and beyond. Here’s what he had to say.
Zoneblitz: Kansas City has gone from 10 wins to seven to two to 11. Last season resulted in a postseason appearance, but a first-round wild card loss. How do you assess the season?
Nielsen: Heading into the 2013 season I thought there was an opportunity for the Chiefs to have a nice swing in their record. Andy Reid and Alex Smith each have their flaws but the combination of those two is the best the Chiefs have had since Dick Vermeil and Trent Green, maybe even better. So there was reason to think there would be a few games of improvement. Add in a friendly schedule and an 8-8 season seemed very possible.
How exactly the Chiefs got to 11 wins and a 38-10 lead in a road playoff game is beyond me. With all the roster turnover, the significant holes in the secondary and in the pass rush, and the lack of offensive weapons, it is crazy to me the Chiefs were ever in the position there were in at the end of last season. And if Kansas City doesn’t lose Jamaal Charles, Brandon Flowers, Justin Houston, and several others to injury in the playoff game, who knows where they could have gone.
Overall, it is very difficult to not be pleased with an 11-win season one year after having the number one overall pick in the draft.
Zoneblitz: What did you think of the Andy Reid/John Dorsey combo after year one?
Nielsen: So far, so good. The two seem to get along really well and the roles seem to be defined in a way they are both comfortable with. Each seems to have a personality that meshes well with the other but who knows what will happen if things get rough again.
Reid proved last year that, outside of a quarterback, a head coach may be the most important decision a franchise makes in the NFL. Kansas City had six Pro Bowl players in 2012 and won two games. All of those guys returned but they seemed to be put in better situations to help the team win games. Having Smith at quarterback didn’t hurt much either.
Dorsey has been as advertised as well. Kansas City got a huge boost in Marcus Cooper, who was cut by the San Francisco 49ers after the preseason. He could end up being a diamond in the rough for the Chiefs. The total depth of the roster was better, which is remarkable given 30 of the 53 men on the 2013 roster were not with the team in 2012.
Some were disappointed with how the 2013 draft class performed, something both Reid and Dorsey should take heat for. Injuries played a big part in limiting the rookie class’ production. Health and a quality class this year – KC only has six picks and no second rounder because of the Smith trade – will go a long way toward solidifying faith in Dorsey.
Zoneblitz: Alex Smith helped pick up the play at QB. Is he a long-term solution? What else do the Chiefs have developing at that spot?
Nielsen: The Chiefs have nothing developing at quarterback unless you’re high on Tyler Bray as a future starter in the NFL. This has led to some interesting discussions on if the Chiefs should take Teddy Bridgewater or one of the other top quarterbacks if they were to fall to KC with 23rd pick. I’m not sure that’s out of the question for the Chiefs to do.
Smith is in contract extension talks with the Chiefs now, but Smith had just signed a deal with the 49ers before they traded him the following season to KC. I think there is a commitment to Smith but I do not think the plan is for him to be the Chiefs’ starting quarterback three or four years from now. This would suggest the Chiefs will be making a move for a quarterback in the draft soon if not this year.
Zoneblitz: After Dwayne Bowe’s 57 catches, there wasn’t a lot of consistent production from receivers or tight ends — Dexter McCluster and Jamaal Charles were the other top receivers. Are there prospects for improvement from the existing skill players or is that something that still has to be addressed?
Nielsen: Reid’s offense is one that likes to spread the ball around. No wide receiver ever caught more than 77 passes in a season in his time in Philadelphia and only four times did a receiver surpass 1,000 yard receiving in a single season. Because of this I think the Chiefs are looking for more depth here than they are looking for the next A.J. Green.
The team has been very high on A.J. Jenkins, a first round pick of the 49ers two years ago who was traded for KC’s 2011 busted first round pick Jon Baldwin. Jenkins has speed and looked comfortable in the few snaps he got at the end of last season. This year he’ll actually know the playbook heading into camp and will have an opportunity to contribute on the field. He’s KC’s best candidate to have a “surprise” season at wide receiver.
Zoneblitz: Jamaal Charles had 329 touches in 2013, including 70 catches. Is that about right for him? Any concerns about his usage?
Nielsen: Charles had a lot of touches and both Dorsey and Reid have talked about getting now second-year back Knile Davis more snaps in 2014. Davis looked really good in the limited action he saw. It also wouldn’t surprise me if the Chiefs looked into adding a running back in the late rounds or in undrafted free agency to help out a little bit.
One thing about Charles is he wasn’t getting hit a lot for a guy who had some many touches. Reid did a good job of finding a way to get him to the edge and protect him from taking big hits. It wasn’t like he had 300 touches where he was crushed by 300-pound lineman and linebackers running down hill. A lot of the time he was getting pushed out of bounds, or knocked down by defensive backs. I think this matters in the long run.
Still, Kansas City has to find a way to get those touches down to something more reasonable, if only to make their offense harder to predict.
Zoneblitz: The Chiefs were fifth in the league in points allowed. Anything that unit needs to do to get better?
Nielsen: Kansas City’s defense ranked very well in most categories until Justin Houston was injured in week 12. At that point the pass rush became non-existent and the defense couldn’t stop the pass to save their lives. This was evident in the loss to the Colts in the Wild Card round. When there was no pressure on the quarterback, the Chiefs couldn’t defend.
Adding another pass rusher is going to be a key for them in the draft. They’ve already made an upgrade on the defensive line by replacing Tyson Jackson with Vance Walker, who is much better suited for what the Chiefs try to do on defense. There’s also some hope Mike Catapano, a seventh round pick from the 2013 draft, will be able to contribute as a situational pass rusher.
Zoneblitz: There have been a lot of defections this offseason, including linemen Branden Albert and Jon Asamoah. And most of the replacements have been lower-profile guys. What are your thoughts on the offseason thus far?
Nielsen: Kansas City lost no one who wasn’t replaceable. It was a bit of shock seeing five players signing elsewhere in less than an hour once free agency opened, but none of the guys who left were as impactful to the Chiefs success as say Houston or Eric Berry or Alex Smith.
With the exception of right guard, Kansas City already had either a clear built-in replacement on the roster or they’ve signed one in free agency (i.e. Walker) for everyone they lost in free agency. It wouldn’t be a surprise to see the Chiefs use a day three pick on an offensive lineman to compete for the starting right guard spot.
Generally speaking, the Chiefs overall roster might be slightly better than where it was before the offseason started, although there is more uncertainty with how consistent the offensive line will be with Eric Fisher at left tackle. They haven’t taken a huge leap, but they haven’t gotten worse either. And that’s about all you can ask for given the salary cap restrictions they are under.
Zoneblitz: Kansas City definitely showed big-time improvement in 2013, but the team also was exposed a bit by Denver in the regular season and then collapsed in the playoff game. What has to happen and how far away are they from making a deeper playoff run?
Nielsen: Again, it is all about the pass rush. There are certainly some things the Chiefs can improve in the secondary, but everything the Chiefs do on defense is predicated on someone getting in the quarterback’s face.
Kansas City’s defensive ends combined to record six sacks for the entire season. In fact, the Chiefs secondary almost had more sacks (5.5) than the defensive ends produced. This is where Walker comes into play but the Chiefs obviously need more help there than just one guy. It wouldn’t be a shock if the Chiefs went defensive line with either their first or third round pick.
A more consistent pass rush helps close the gap against the Broncos and probably wins them the playoff game against the Colts. We all saw in the Super Bowl how Seattle’s pass rush caused massive problems for the Broncos, so that’s the blueprint for the Chiefs when it comes to trying to be competitive with them. They have two good edge rushers in Houston and Tamba Hali, so getting more pressure up the middle should be the focus.
Zoneblitz: What else would you like to see Chiefs do in free agency and then in the draft?
Nielsen: Given the Chiefs’ salary cap issues, I find it unlikely they’ll add anyone of note in free agency between now and training camp. This whole offseason has been centered around doing well in the draft so May 8-10 will carry more weight for the Chiefs’ immediate success than maybe some of the other teams.
The consensus seems to be the Chiefs for sure need to address wide receiver, defensive back, and offensive line in the draft in addition to adding a pass rusher on the defensive line. Kansas City has six picks to make this happen with four of those picks being on day three. The lack of picks makes the Chiefs a prime candidate to trade down if the opportunity presents itself.
Their first round pick could really go in almost any direction so trading down may make a ton of sense for them anyway. There isn’t a specific position or player they must have in this draft as compared to maybe the San Francisco 49ers and Carolina Panthers who really need wide receiver help.
Finding a way to add another pick or two and addressing their wide receiver and pass rushing depth issues would probably be what I’d like to see the most in the draft.
Zoneblitz: Is there anything else you would like to add?
Nielsen: Kansas City’s schedule in 2014 is brutal. They play all four of last season’s AFC and NFC Championship game participants and will play half of their games against teams who made the playoffs in 2013. So repeating last season’s 11-win season seems unlikely.
However, the Chiefs are still a rising and very young team. They are also entering their first season since 2007 where they will be returning the same general manager, head coach, offensive coordinator, and defensive coordinator. The stability is refreshing and it should pay off with many of the Chiefs’ younger players.
Three months from the start of training camp, I’d put the Chiefs in the 8-to-10 win range right now. If they can get an extra pass rush boost and if they can find a player or two to supplement Charles and Bowe then they can be a competitive team again in 2014.
Follow Ben Nielsen on Twitter at: @bentherebro
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