The New England Patriots have won 51 regular season games in four seasons, claimed playoff spots in 10 of the last 11 years and won double-digit games 12 of the last 13. Yet despite two Super Bowl appearances and three other conference championship appearances in the last nine seasons, if it doesn’t happen this year it will be a clean decade since the Patriots took home the Lombardi Trophy.
Most teams would do almost anything for a resume like the one put up in New England since Bill Belichick took over. But the coach and his QB, Tom Brady, aren’t getting any younger. So is there restlessness to make the next run? How far away are the Patriots from adding the fourth Super Bowl championship of the Belichick era? And what has to happen to get there?
Rich Hill, managing editor of Pats Pulpit, joined Zoneblitz to share some insight on a team he thinks is a healthy season away from contending.
Zoneblitz: The 2013 season brought another 12 wins and a conference championship appearance, but the team has lost back-to-back AFCC games — how would you assess the season?
Hill: As good as reasonably expected, given the circumstances. While we would have certainly enjoyed seeing Tom Brady and Co. make it back to the Super Bowl, the team was just missing too many key components to get there. Losing four All Pro players (Sebastian Vollmer, Rob Gronkowski, Vince Wilfork and Jerod Mayo) never helps, plus a fifth (Aqib Talib) went down with injury in the championship round. Given all the injuries, it was a fairly successful season and primes the team for an even better 2014.
Zoneblitz: Offensively the team scored 113 fewer points in 2013 than 2012. What were the factors?
Hill: Missing Gronkowski certainly didn’t help and the team played at its 2012 level when he was on the field. The biggest adjustment was -everyone- else. Brady was throwing to four new faces (Danny Amendola, Aaron Dobson, Kenbrell Thompkins and Josh Boyce), all of whom missed extensive time due to injury. The only really consistent player was Julian Edelman and an offense of slot receivers isn’t sustainable against stronger defenses.
Hopefully the team emerges this season with some more experience.
Zoneblitz: Hard to believe Tom Brady has been the QB since 2001. How many years does he have left and is Ryan Mallet the heir apparent or is it time for New England to start planning for the future?
Hill: I think Brady is honestly going to play until he’s 40, barring injury. Mallett isn’t in any real plans beyond being the back-up; this is likely his last season as the Patriots will find Mallett’s replacement in the draft. He’s done extremely well in his role, but he’ll likely go elsewhere for the chance to be a starter.
As for the future, don’t be surprised if the next quarterback is another Mallett – a bridge to the real quarterback of the future.
Zoneblitz: LeGarrette Blount took the load during the playoffs, but he’s gone. Shane Vereen is back, as is Stevan Ridley, but he had fumbling issues — what’s the hierarchy at RB heading into 2014?
Hill: Ridley is back on top and Vereen will likely continue to see a third of the snaps. A name to watch for is Brandon Bolden as he has a serious chance to emerge as someone deserving of snaps. He’s the most versatile of the backs, although he’s not necessary as strong in any facet as the other two.
I’d prepare for the Patriots to draft or bring in another running back to round out the unit.
Zoneblitz: Rob Gronkowski is injury prone, Aaron Hernandez is homicide prone (allegedly), Wes Welker is gone and after the re-signed Julian Edelman, the rest of the bunch has question marks. Are the Patriots putting enough weapons around Brady these days to go all the way?
Hill: I think they are. They couldn’t have planned for Hernandez and, if everyone else stayed healthy, we’d still believe the team to be promising. They finished third in the league in points, behind a historic unit and one point behind second. Given the extra season of experience, don’t be surprised if the team is back on top in 2014.
Also, some draft rumors are spreading that the Patriots want a big play receiver early in the draft o help out Tom. We’ll see how that plays out.
Zoneblitz: Among other moves, the Pats signed Darrelle Revis and Brandon Browner, but lost Aqib Talib and Brandon Spikes. Is the defense better than it was when the 2013 season ended?
Hill: Absolutely. Talib at his best is what Revis offers at a daily basis. Dont’a Hightower makes up for Spikes’ superior run defense with a higher level of pass coverage. Jamie Collins was earning time on the field. Devin McCourty has his first full year of experience at safety.
Add in Mayo, Wilfork, and Tommy Kelly returning from season-ending injuries and the squad looks better than ever.
Zoneblitz: Things got contentious with Vince Wilfork this offseason before he signed a three-year deal – what’s his future with the team?
Hill: Vince just signed his last contract with the team. It’s not likely he’ll play beyond its length and if he doesn’t live up to expectations, the Pats can release him.
Zoneblitz: Who on the roster do you see having a breakout season in 2014?
Hill: I think that Devin McCourty is primed for superstardom. I know that many appreciated his ability last season, but I think he makes the jump from “great player on the Patriots” to a player teams are telling themselves “We need to find ourselves a McCourty.”
He has one season of experience at safety and he was the top-rated player at his position at Pro Football Focus. Now he’ll have pieces in front of him that were missing last season in addition to pick-ups Revis and Browner.
Look for McCourty to be a star.
Zoneblitz: How far are the Patriots from having a Super Bowl championship team?
Hill: They’re a healthy season away from winning the Super Bowl. If Revis, Brady, Gronkowski, and the defensive ends Rob Ninkovich and Chandler Jones stay healthy, the sky is the limit for this team.
Zoneblitz: What else would you like to see Patriots do in the rest of free agency and then in the draft?
Hill: I’d like to see them address their low level of depth at defensive end as the team can’t expect both Ninkovich and Jones to play over 1000 snaps during the season.
I want them to pick up some developmental talent on both the offensive and defensive lines in the draft, as well as a TE who can make immediate contributions.
Zoneblitz: Is there anything else you would like to add?
Hill: Here’s to a great 2014!
Follow Rich Hill on Twitter at: @PP_Rich_Hill
Follow Pats Pulpit on Twitter at: @PatsPulpit
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