Editor’s Note: Paul sent us the bulk of this post some time back…we’ve modified it slightly to adjust for the fact that the nominees were cut down to the semifinalists list announced today…and we will add our predictions in the comments.
With today’s announcement that the 130 modern era nominees has been cut to 25 semi-finalists, we move onto the next step in the process to cut the list to 15 finalists (early January), and finally naming of the class on Selection Saturday when the Hall voters will meet in Tampa on February 6th (hopefully), the day before the Super Bowl, with the official announcement later that evening during the annual NFL Honors show (although news will certainly filter out via social media by 5-6p that day).
The focus of attention will be on another loaded first ballot group of candidates with QB Peyton Manning, CB Charles Woodson, WR Calvin Johnson, and DE Jared Allen. Plus likely returning finalists including S Leroy Butler (2nd year as finalist), OT Tony Boselli (5th year), OG Alan Faneca (6th yr), S John Lynch (8th yr), DT Richard Seymour (3rd yr), and LB Zack Thomas (2nd yr).
Predicting the five modern candidates to be elected can be challenging as always a surprise or two, rules allow for 3-5 but recent elections has seen the maximum of 5 and we can assume same for class of 2021 as voters have plenty of deserving players to get into the Hall eventually. Voters typically are very quiet leading up to and after the selection meeting, making it very difficult to determine any preferences or popular candidates. This year will be no different, in fact perhaps even more challenging as there have been some changes to the committee membership, adding a few new voices and opinions into the 48 member group who will make the final selections via a series of votes from 15 to 10 and finally to 5, who then require 80% from the committee to be elected.
But we can start with some pretty basic assumptions when looking to predict the class of 2021 moderns: QB Payton Manning and CB Charles Woodson will be locks to be elected. Although the term “lock” is often misused by many when considering 1st ballot elections, in the case of these two candidates it is not an overstatement or misjudgment. That leaves 3 remaining slots for modern candidates to be filled by the votes, and one that is very likely to be given to Pittsburg Steeler OG Alan Faneca, a deserving player who has waited too long in the minds of many and will also benefit from the voters support for OL to be added (his profile of 6x first team all pro, 9x pro bowls, first team all decade, and SB make him very qualified). It will be the final 2 slots were the discussions, debate and voting will be interesting and certainly more challenging to predict. But that never stopped any of us from trying before, so let’s have at it.
First, I think perhaps the most controversial and discussed aspect of the class of 2021 elections will be that Detroit Lions WR Calvin “Megatron” Johnson will not be selected. He certainly has the credentials with 3x first team all pro selections, 6x pro bowl and 2010s all decade team (along with NE Patriots OG Logan Mankins he becomes first from that all decade team to appear on PFHOF ballot). But many fans and supporters are missing the reality that the voters do not tend to support 1st ballot elections for WRs and also look to delay elections for short career candidates – Johnson played for nine seasons, hence lacks major career receiving statistics. There will certainly be support in the room for him, he could very well could make the final 10 stage, but I foresee a wait of a few years before election. Also worth noting that WRs are really crowding the ballot with Johnson, plus Torry Holt (2020 finalist), Jimmy Smith, Hines Ward, Reggie Wayne (2020 finalist) and others-any more to join in the next few years. Voters will have their hands full in coming elections to sort out a massive logjam at the WR position.
So back to those two other slots (after predicting election of Manning, Woodson and Faneca). One historical trend of voters is addressing the wait for deserving candidates who continue to appear as finalist but await election. I am predicting that they will address this concern for OT Tony Boselli and elect him into this class. And yes I know that two OL elected is a rare occurrence, but given this will be his 5th year on the ballot (and he finished in final 10 each of the last three elections so he has support of voters) will convince voters it’s time to elect the first Jacksonville Jaguar to the Hall. That leaves one final slot, and the 5th modern candidate elected is often the most difficult to predict and this year is no different in that regard. The top contender should be viewed as Lynch, Seymour or Thomas. And one could make the case for any of the three (or Butler for that matter), it will be a real toss up how 48 voters view these candidates and who secures enough support to election. I am usually dismissive of the “home town” influence playing a factor – that the Superbowl teams or location influences the voters when considering modern candidates for the Hall – but in this case I am going to go with former Tampa Bay Buc Safety John Lynch as my prediction. But admit that it could very well be Seymour or Thomas as both are deserving and have their supporters.
So there you have it, my class of 2021 modern predictions of Payton Manning, Charles Woodson, Alan Faneca, Tony Boselli, and John Lynch. Anyone else willing to go out on a limb with their reputation on the line and make a prediction? Leave your thoughts in the comments below.
I swear, the numbers we choose for this really are random, I really do draw these out of a hat–although I was tempted to throw this one back, because even I had trouble believing that we got them back to back. I mean, we have covered the best #79, #80 and #81 already–but that was over the course of eight years that we wrote those three, and they weren’t consecutive. Plus, kind of like the question of who is the best #80 in NFL history, in the end it’s not really a debate who the best #56 in NFL history is, right?
We can all agree that the all-time greatest player to wear #56 was…Marty Schottenheimer, right? Seriously, he did wear it for his first three seasons playing for Buffalo, before switching to #57, and finishing his career with #54.
At the same time…it’s a pretty good list of players in NFL history that wore #56–maybe not quite as good as #55 will be, but there are five Hall of Famers that wore it as their primary jersey, a couple more Hall of Famers that wore it for part of their career, and a few pretty good players that aren’t in the Hall that wore it. There’s even a few that are wearing it today–including at least one that may make an updated version of this article someday, if he keeps playing like he has in his first couple of seasons…which his career will probably wrap up right around the time we finish this list.
Not sure how many of you are on Twitter at all (follow us at @zoneblitzcom [Andy] and @toneblitz [Me]…although it tends to skew more fantasy football there), but stumbled across a tweet earlier tonight that interested me in a couple ways:
First is the content itself–Gore vs Charles…not really a heads up that I would have ever considered, mostly because I never considered Charles to be that level of player. Don’t get me wrong–he was a great player (that I think may have won me a fantasy football championship or two), but for such a short period of time.
While there are some short term career running backs in Canton, I don’t feel like Charles reached the bar of Gale Sayers (who admittedly may not be elected today, but in his time was apparently considered a revolutionary back) or Terrell Davis, who cracked the 2,000 yard mark AND led his team to two Super Bowl wins.
He played 11 seasons in the NFL, but was only four times did he start more than 10 games (although defining a starting RB isn’t always that easy), cracked the 1,000 yard rushing mark five times, and finished his career with over 10,000 all-purpose yards.
Gore has been discussed several times here–although amazingly enough, we’ve apparently never given him his own “Should Frank Gore Make the Hall of Fame” post…which might tell you something.
The more I look at it…the premise of the article is kind of ridiculous–I hadn’t even read the full article before I started writing this, and while it’s obvious that they’re trying to give an example of “Longetivity” vs. “Peak Performance”–but in choosing Charles, they kind of missed the mark, given that Gore’s best season (his second season in 2006, a full two years before Charles was drafted) Gore put up 2,160 all-purpose yards with 1,695 on the ground–a full 180 yards ahead of Charles’ peak season of 1,980 from 2013.
It’s true, Charles did it in a lot fewer touches–329 vs 373–and Charles had two seasons over 1,900 total yards, whereas Gore’s second highest season was 1,538. But to argue that Charles’ peak was high enough to warrant Hall of Fame selection…when Charles wasn’t even leading the league in yardage when he was at his peak, and only led the league in rushing TDs once (with 12)…just falls flat.
But the second thing that the article got me thinking about actually has to do with the Hall of Fame selection process. I think we would all agree that the current process has some flaws in it–not the least of which (in my eyes) comes down to trusting the opinions of a bunch of sports writers, when some of the sports writers that I’ve seen on the list over the years frankly aren’t that good (with their writing, their impartiality, or their sports takes).
But what about people who work at companies like Pro Football Focus, who seemingly have made serious in roads in their acceptance into the NFL media circles, with some announcers (albeit mostly Cris Collinsworth, who I didn’t realize is apparently the majority owner of the company). They do an amazing job breaking the game down into analytics & grades–although their grading process draws plenty of criticism as well.
As the game heads even more towards an analytics based approach–much like baseball–are we going to start to include things like career PFF rating (or similar services from other companies) into our decisions of who is Hall of Fame worthy? Should some of the top analysts from these companies be given a say in who gets in, as some of the writers roll off the list of voters? (Maybe some have already? I haven’t checked the list in a while).
I’m not saying they should or shouldn’t–just curious what the community thinks…about Gore vs. Charles AND about how analytics may play a role in future HOF selections.
When I first drew #57 for our Best in NFL History series, per usual I thought of Vikings that I could remember with the number, and the only player that popped into my head was Dwayne Rudd. Or as he’s typically known here in Minnesota (and I believe in Cleveland) Dwayne “Effing” Rudd. No worries, he didn’t make the cut.
Bring in the 50’s, I figured we would have a bunch of linebackers to choose from, but none immediately jumped to mind–I looked up the ProFootballReference.com Jersey Number page first, and realized that Rickey Jackson (who I did see play) and Tom Jackson (who I just missed play) would probably duke it out, although there were a couple other names I recognized on the list.
It wasn’t until I flipped to #57 in my Best By Number book that I realized even looking at the PFR page, I missed the guy that will get my vote–the other player who wore #57 as his primary jersey number in the Hall of Fame.
Just a quick hitter here, on a player that I’m kind of surprised we didn’t write about earlier–possibly because his retirement came during one of our doldrums of writing, or possibly because we hadn’t even considered the topic worth of discussion…
As I was doing some writing for another Hall of Fame post that will hit in the next day or two, a tweet came across my phone screen–I think what I was seeing was a retweet, but I can’t seem to find it, so I’ll embed the original:
Jared Allen: "I'm a Viking, I'll go in [to the NFL Hall of Fame] as Viking….The Vikings have my heart."
I saw that, and knew I wouldn’t have to dig very far in the comments to find people asking the same question I had–sure enough, right away:
Don't get me wrong, Jared Allen might be my favorite NFL player of all time. He certainly belongs in the Hall of Very Good. Hall of Fame? I'm not sold. He ranks 12th all time in sacks, .72/game, 187th all time in tackles. Vikings Ring of Honor for sure, HOF is a big maybe to me.
Side note–I also saw a Tweet from an apparent Vikings fan claiming that the Chiefs still won the Jared Allen trade…they used the first round pick on Branden Albert, and one of the third round picks on Jamaal Charles…neither team won a Super Bowl with the picks. That might be worth a post all on its own.
Back to the question at hand–aside from the fact that if & when you are elected to the Pro Football Hall of Fame in Canton, you don’t choose which team you go in as, the question remains–will Jared Allen some day be on the stage in Canton donning the yellow jacket?
He played in 187 games over 13 years, amassing 136 sacks, 32 forced fumbles, 19 fumble recoveries, six interceptions, two defensive touchdowns, plus two touchdown receptions on his two career catches, for Kansas City. He led the NFL in sacks in two separate seasons, including a 22 sack season in 2011, and was named to five Pro Bowls, in addition to being named All-Pro four times. He will be eligible for election to the Hall of Fame for the first time in 2021.
Normally the sack totals would seem to indicate that he would be in–but in today’s NFL, with the increase in the passing game, it’s a good total, but is it really great? He’s 12th on the all-time list right now–the only three ahead of him on the list that aren’t in the Hall of Fame (Julius Peppers, Terrell Suggs and DeMarcus Ware) are also very possibly Canton bound. Of course, the first name behind him (with 133.5) is John Abraham, who is…not exactly what I think of when I think Hall of Fame. Behind him, tied with Lawrence Taylor, is Leslie O’Neal–another non-Hall of Famer.
So what says you, Zoneblitz readers–is Jared Allen a Hall of Famer?
Almost eight years ago now we started this series, and apparently more than five years since our most recent, thanks to the COVID19 shut down that has us working at home, we’re going to try to get back into our By The Numbers series.
We’ve seen quite a few go down this path over the years—many just using a list of their opinions as way to drive pageviews–but our audience of Hall of Fame fanatics, combined with our non-traditional approach of bouncing around by picking numbers out of a hat leads to better content (in our opinion).
So, with the goal of getting us back to averaging more than one of our number posts per year, we finally get into the trenches with number 79.
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I guess what I am saying Andy P is that transparency is great, just doubt that it improves the results
So what do you mean where you say transparency?
Paul I don’t know what are you trying to say
Let’s say we had a lot more transparency during class of 2025 election - would it have changed outcome?
Paul what do you mean it doesn’t improves outcome