So we’re just a few days removed from Matthew Stafford leading riding Cooper Kupp’s coattails in the Lions Rams’ Super Bowl victory, and as with all first-time QB Super Bowl winners, the Hall of Fame questions have started.
Unlike two years ago, when I think it was mostly parody asking about Patrick Mahomes (who may well be on his way, but was only in his second full year as a starter), Stafford actually has a resume built up that can be analyzed:
13 years in the league
49,995 yards passing (12th all-time)
323 touchdowns (12th all-time)
91.1 career rating (21st all-time)
34 comebacks, 42 game-winning drives
1 Super Bowl victory
Of course, he also has a few other career highlights:
One Pro Bowl appearance (which shocks me…even this year he didn’t make it)
Zero All-Pro selections
7 losing seasons (out of 12 years that he started at least 8 games)
Only four playoff appearances, and zero wins before this season
Richard Sherman weighed in on Twitter:
“I’m gonna talk about it on the podcast but the HOF bar is incredibly low now. Like a participation trophy. No all decade team. No All pro. No MVP. 1 Pro bowl. Not even MVP of the SB. Never considered the best in any year he played. At least M Ryan has an MVP.”
“There is no measuring stick that makes Stafford a Hall of Famer other than playing in the most passer happy decade in NFL history. Inflated numbers make ever QB that starts 10+ years a ‘hof.’”
So did Michael Robinson, for what it’s worth:
“Yes he’s a gold jacket, ABSOLUTELY. The ultimate team goal, to win a Lombardi, Matthew Stafford actually has, and he was a huge part of winning this Super Bowl.”
“And now … the debate on the HOF? We shouldn’t be talking about the HOF because he isn’t done playing the game yet. If you don’t believe he is a HOFer … I can’t wait for him to prove you wrong in his remaining years … just like he did IN ONE YEAR to everyone who said all the things listed above. So let’s table this talk until he actually retires? Thank you.”
With the announcement of the Pro Football Hall of Fame Class of 2022 fast approaching on NFL Honors Show, Thursday February 10th, its time to lock in your predictions. For a reminder here is the list of modern candidate finalists that the selection committee voted on during their 7 hour virtual meeting on January 18th:
DE Jared Allen
OT Willie Anderson
DB Ronde Barber
OT Tony Boselli
S LeRoy Butler
PR/KR Devin Hester
WR Torry Holt
WR Andre Johnson
LB Sam Mills
DT Richard Seymour
LB Zack Thomas
LB DeMarcus Ware
WR Reggie Wayne
LB Patrick Willis
DT Bryant Young
We should also note that the committee has also already voted on the separate cases for the senior finalist WR Cliff Branch, coach Dick Vermeil and contributor Art McNally-as per usual we can assume all were elected. So for our predictions we will just consider the aforementioned 15 modern candidates. To save time and effort a few of us here at ZoneBlitz.com will make our predictions below without lengthy justifications. For more detailed discussion and debate on these candidates review our longer thread of posts on the Deciding the Pro Football Hall of Fame Class of 2022 topic. Please feel free to comment on ours or make your own, but be sure to do so before the official announcement Thursday February 10th, 9-11pm EST on the NFL Honors Show. Anyone who correctly predicts all five can declare themselves “The Greatest” for the next year when posting here on ZoneBlitz.com.
Paul: Boselli, Butler, Seymour, Thomas, Ware – I am going with four final 10 left over from the 2021 election, in fact both Boselli and Seymour have been in final ten multiple times indicating they have support of the voters and appear primed for election this year. Butler is another candidate with repeated appearances in the final 15 and as voters have addressed the safety position in recent years, he is the next one up. That leaves my prediction of the one and only 2022 first ballot candidate to be elected, Dallas Cowboys and Denver Broncos LB DeMarcus Ware. Although his first ballot case may not be as strong as others in recent elections, it does compare favorably to Jason Taylor who was first ballot in class of 2017. Some voters have recently become more vocal and critical about the number of first ballot candidates elected, but 2012 is last class without one, so in my view Ware will be that guy this class. It’s really hard to get all five slots predicted correctly as 49 voters usually results in at least one surprise. I am not taking this into consideration with my predictions, but the one of the WRs Holt or Wayne could slip in replacing either Thomas or Ware, if voters collectively decide to address the rapid growing logjam at WR position.
Tony: Boselli, Holt, Seymour, Ware, Wayne – I agree that four of the final 10 from last year make it, but I’ll go off the beaten path and put two WR in. I’d like to see Jared Allen make it, but I think Ware gets the slight edge there and makes it first ballot — although in many years, I think he would be waiting for a season or two as well.
Andy: I think this is going to be the weakest class enshrined in years. I think a lot of these guys are being considered as much because they played for a long time as that they were actually elite players. And I think there are enough guys at similar positions (Johnson, Wayne, Holt vs Willis, Mills, Ware, Thomas vs Anderson, Boselli, etc.) where there is a good chance guys cancel each other out and this ends up being the first class in years to not max out the available HOF spots. I think each of the non-modern era candidates get in. Branch, Vermeil and McNally get in. But this group of finalists stymies me. I like a lot of them. I don’t really love almost any of them. And I find it interesting that one of the guys Paul and Tony both like — Richard Seymour — is on my no list. At three AP First Team All Pro lists, I think he waits. I agree with them on Ware and Boselli. I’m going Holt over Wayne. I think both eventually get in, though I’m not sure either should be a lock. Both had one AP First Team award. One. There were plenty of Pro Bowls amongst them, but the Pro Bowl is such a bad a joke now that people are suggesting as an alternative the worst team in the AFC play the worst team in the NFC for the top pick in the draft. Anyway … I think Zach Thomas is a great story and a solid candidate. And I’m struggling to find a fifth that I am really blown away with. Forced, I’ll go Jared Allen, but he’s not a perfect candidate either.
A couple weeks back, ProFootballReference.com, the most comprehensive database of football stats online, announced that they were adding unofficial sack totals to player stats from 1960 to 1981, after two researchers compiled the data utilizing box scores, game stories and film.
One of the researchers, Jack Turney, was quoted in this 2006 story about Michael Strahan’s career sack total vs Lawrence Taylor, who’s rookie season of 1981 isn’t counted amongst the official sack totals. Even in 2006, Turney had data back to 1970 for stats.
While no mention is made of the bogus Strahan single season sack record—bogus both because of the pathetic “sack” that set the record, and because the unofficial stats show that the record was actually 23 sacks, set by Al Baker in his 1978 rookie season—the article did mention the opinion that:
“Turney’s research undoubtedly helped Youngblood reach the Pro Football Hall of Fame in 2001, 17 years after he left the game.”
Interesting, because when I first heard about the unofficial stats being published, on a local sports radio show, my thoughts (and the hosts, I believe) also immediately thought of another Hall of Fame candidacy—that of Minnesota Vikings Purple People Eater Jim Marshall.
Marshall is largely known for two things from his career—his Iron Man streak of 282 games played (and 270 consecutive starts), and famously scoring a safety for the San Francisco 49ers, running the wrong direction after picking up a fumble in a 1964 matchup. Interestingly, he is less known for holding the NFL record for most career fumble recoveries in a career, with 30—a stat that I have to admit forgetting about myself.
Perhaps less known about Marshall, though, is that he too was a prolific sacker of the quarterback—his Wikipedia page already credited him with 127 sacks unofficially, and the data from ProFootballReference.com puts him at 130.5 sacks—good for 22nd all-time (tied with Coy Bacon).
Ahead of Marshall on the unofficial list, only Julius Peppers (159.5), Terrell Suggs (139), DeMarcus Ware (138.5), Jared Allen (136), John Abraham (133.5), Leslie O’Neal (132.5), and Baker (131) are not in the Hall of Fame (along with Bacon). Peppers, Suggs, Ware and Allen seem likely to get in the Hall of Fame, while I have heard arguments made for Abraham and O’Neal to eventually make it too.
Many will argue that Marshall got that many sacks because of how long he played (18 seasons in the NFL), and because many of those seasons were played with Alan Page (148.5 sacks unofficially) and Carle Eller (133.5 sacks unofficially), both members of the Hall. And those people aren’t wrong—but he still got the sacks.
And that Iron Man streak—the current active leader for consecutive starts, Ndamukong Suh, would need to start every game for more than the next seven seasons to reach that mark, even with 17 game seasons –is frankly amazing. Especially playing in the trenches, in an era with less than stellar medical capabilities.
So will this new data from ProFootballReference.com make much difference in Marshall’s claim to a spot in Canton? Based on the previous unofficial count of 127 sacks, it only actually moved him up one spot—from 24th overall, behind Hall of Famer Claude Humphrey (130 sacks) and ahead of Hall of Famer Derrick Thomas (126.5). One Vikings blog points out that his comparatively paltry four seasons of 10+ sacks, 12 seasons of less than seven sacks, and career average of 6.5 sacks per year don’t compare favorably to current Viking Hall of Famers Carl Eller, Alan Page, Chris Doleman and John Randle–nor likely Hall of Famer Allen, or even not likely Hall of Famer Everson Griffen.
So maybe the data won’t help—even though sacks aren’t the only thing for defensive linemen (especially since they didn’t officially exist until 1981), and the abundance of 70’s Vikings already in the Hall may also continue to work against him.
But as all true homer fans will do, I will continue to bang the drum (or blow the Gjallarhorn) for Marshall until he gets that call.
As we move into the summer months, for those interested in the Pro Football Hall of Fame thoughts and discussions often focus on the upcoming enshrinement of the next class of players, coaches and contributors at the Hall in Canton during the first week in August. Events this year that will include both the 20 member class of 2020 , including Centennial Class (elected, but due to the Covid pandemic not enshrined last year), plus the 8 member class of 2021. Congratulations to the newest members of the Hall, which now stands at 346 individuals representing over 100 years of professional football.
But for others who closely follow and debate the selection of PFHOFers, summer brings another annual tradition- the start of the election process for the next class, in this case for 2022. Starting with the selection of the finalists from the senior, coach and contributor categories by their respective subcommittees in late August. This will be followed by the preliminary list of modern candidates for the class of 2022 which will advance to the 25 semi-finalists (November), 15 finalists (January 2022), and voting for the 5 modern players (plus decisions on the senior, coach and contributor) the day before Super Bowl LVI at SoFi Stadium in Inglewood, CA, February 13th, 2022. So let the debates begin!
Starting with the senior committee finalist selection, we can consider those players we know were considered a year ago but not selected: Stanley Morgan, George Kunz, Randy Gradishar, Cliff Branch, Roger Craig, Ken Anderson, Ken Riley, Chuck Howley, Tommy Nobis, LC Greenwood, Joe Klecko (note: unofficial list as PFHOF does not publicly announce the 12 players considered by the seniors committee. Rumors on social media suggested that Riley finished 2nd, in 2021 voting – to finalist and elected PFHOF Dallas Cowboys WR Drew Pearson. However, we know actually very little about the finalists, discussions and voting by the rotating group of five senior committee members who make the selection to present to the full committee at their meeting each year the day before the Superbowl. Several of these possible senior candidates were finalists for the 2020 Centennial Class, and suggestions have made over the years that many have been part of the process of selecting senior candidates in the past. Will recent momentum carry Riley to election (also the focus of a high profile social media campaign by Bengal fans) or will this finally be the year for Gradishar, Branch or Klecko? Are the prospects dimming for pre 1960s candidates such as Ox Emerson, Lavvie Dilweg and Al Wistert?
For 2021, the first election that provided for a separate coaches category, saw Oakland/LA Raiders coach Tom Flores elected into the Hall. As to clues to the possible next coach under consideration, unfortunately we don’t know exactly whom voters are considering, but certain ones are very likely: Don Coryell, Mike Holmgren Buddy Parker, Dan Reeves, and Dick Vermeil (all finalists for the 2020 Centennial Class), with Marty Schottenheimer another likely candidate. All deserving names, which is leading to a difficult decision by the coaches subcommittee this August. And for the contributor candidate, names that seem to draw interest and attention as potential contenders include Art McNally, Robert Kraft, Art Modell, Bud Adams, Bucko Kilroy, and several other owners, scouts and general managers. But at this point, a clear contender does not appear to exist, although many are advocating for McNally to become the first on-field NFL official to be elected into PFHOF.
Next we have the always contentious selection of the five (maximum) modern candidates; a process that will start in September with over 100 nominees, including many returning finalists from 2021, and as in every election year first year ballot players to be under discussion. In this latter group we will see Demarcus Ware, Andre Johnson, Anquan Boldin, Steve Smith, Tony Romo, Nick Mangold, Vince Wilfork, and Devin Hester to appear as candidates. Recent elections have resulted in an large increase in the number of 1st ballot players elected – an issue of much debate in the media – including by some current voters who view the trend as disconcerting. An issue that is unlikely to be at the forefront this election cycle, with only Ware perhaps having best chance at election.
What we will have is a strong group of returning candidates, including several who have now been finalists multiple times in recent elections, highlighted by those players remaining from the 2021 final ten stage: Tony Boselli, Zack Thomas, Richard Seymour and Leroy Butler. Others likely to receive considerable discussion among the voters will be other 2021 semi-finalists, such as Jared Allen, Ronde Barber, Torry Holt, Sam Mills, Reggie Wayne, and Bryant Young. In addition, the candidacy of special team player Steve Tasker will likely receive plenty of attention as he appears on the modern candidate ballot for the last time, and perhaps represents an opportunity by the voters to advance him to the finalist round as the first non-kicker or punter special team player to be discussed by the full Hall selection committee.
That gets us the start of the eight month long process of debates and voting stages for the PFHOF Class of 2022 – let’s all jump in with our views, make cases and engage in our annual contributions to the always interesting and unknown process to add 8 more members to the Hall in Canton.
As expected, QB Peyton Manning and DB Charles Woodson were selected for induction in the Pro Football Hall of Fame’s 2021 class. Perhaps a bit more surprisingly, WR Calvin Johnson joined them, giving the class a trio of first-ballot inductees.
Joining the three first-timers are G Alan Faneca and S John Lynch from the modern era; Tom Flores from the coach category, scout Bill Nunn from the contributor category and WR Drew Pearson from the senior category.
The group was selected by the Hall’s 48-person selection committee during a virtual meeting Jan. 19.
Peyton Manning, Charles Woodson and Calvin Johnson headline a star-studded collection of first-time finalists for enshrinement in the Pro Football Hall of Fame.
Jared Allen, Ronde Barber and Clay Matthews Jr. round out the half-dozen first-time finalists, who are among 15 modern-era players remaining alive for possible selection to the Hall in the class of 2021.
It’s the closest Matthews, brother of Hall of Fame guard Bruce Matthews, has come to being selected. He’s been a semifinalist several times, but makes the final list in his last year of modern-era eligibility.
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I guess what I am saying Andy P is that transparency is great, just doubt that it improves the results
So what do you mean where you say transparency?
Paul I don’t know what are you trying to say
Let’s say we had a lot more transparency during class of 2025 election - would it have changed outcome?
Paul what do you mean it doesn’t improves outcome