Andy: This division has been mostly garbage for the last several years, but there might actually be some interesting football to watch here this year. Andrew Luck returns from internal injuries. Blake Bortles looks like a decent prospect. Marcus Mariota showed some promise. Brock Osweiler gets a chance to get out from under the shadow of Peyton Manning. I don’t think there is going to be a lot of greatness coming from the teams in this division, but there should be more competitiveness – and any of these teams on a good Sunday could surprise a more talented team.
Tony: Competitive football in the AFC South I’ll give you…then again, even the NFC East is competitive. Interesting? Well, depends on your angle. The biggest thing I’ll be watching for from this division is likely whether or not Bortles can continue to emerge into a potential top 5 quarterback (fantasy wise) with his receiving corps, improved running game, and a defense that might be able to stop a Division III school this year. If they play up to their potential (and hype), at this point the division should be theirs for the taking. Andrew Luck’s kidney may be healed, but it isn’t going to be stopping opposing offenses. And the Texans aren’t going to be able to replace JJ Watt, if his back injury limits his effectiveness. And the Tennessee Titans…well, they’re building an interesting base of young potential talent, but if I were a fan, I’d be concerned over a head coach whose career as a head coach is about as inspiring as his career as a tight end.
Andy: I think Bortles can continue to develop but not put up the same numbers he did last year. Theoretically this should be a better team, so they should be holding on to a few more leads rather than throwing deep during garbage time. I like the young defensive parts they’re putting in place. It’ll be interesting to see if Chris Ivory and TJ Yeldon can team up to balance the offense a bit.
But Bortles has great potential – and great weapons. It’s the first time in … A long time that the Jaguars have been interesting to me.
Indianapolis added four offensive linemen, including first-round center Ryan Kelly, to help protect Luck’s kidney and the rest of his body. I get why they did that, but they, again, waited until the mid-rounds of the draft to address several defensive deficiencies. And the run game is still led by 78-year-old Frank Gore. So the Colts will be throwing often.
The Texans are interesting. Assuming Watt is healthy, the defense should be solid. Lamar Miller and Osweiler give the offense, theoretically, some balance.
And even Tennessee showed some promise during the preseason. Derrick Henry and DeMarco Murray could at least let the team shorten games, which should lead to close, low-scoring match-ups. I think the Titans are the least likely of the four to emerge with the division, but I’m not sure I buy into the conventional wisdom that seems to indicate that as long as Luck is healthy the Colts are the team to beat.
Tony: Osweiler is quite probably the key to the division—if he can play anywhere near the contract the Texans gave him (and they can keep JJ Watt on the field), they can probably hang on to the division. If Osweiler struggles, teams will tee off on Lamar Miller, and he may long for the days of being forgotten in Miami…in the middle of a game…while being the only thing working.
The Titans are probably one more solid draft, and a head coach change, away from truly being competitive, but they’re moving in the right direction, and finally seem to have a plan to get there.
Andy: I think there are three teams in the division that are “one solid draft away” but I think those three teams are on the rise. I suppose it’s possible the Colts hold on to the division one more year, but there is no Super Bowl team coming from this division. In all likelihood, Indy starts to slide a bit and the others start taking their place this year and next.
Andy: Hmm, where to start. Oakland hasn’t had a winning season since Jon Gruden was there. The ink on the contract for San Diego’s bust-in-waiting first rounder Joey Bosa is still wet, so he’s not going to contribute much right away for a Chargers team that otherwise, in my eyes, sported a pretty ordinary to bad offseason. Denver won big last year with defense – theoretically replacing Peyton Manning’s output from 2015 shouldn’t be hard, but … Trevor Siemian is how you plan to start your season? Really? Kansas City probably has the fewest question marks. But can Alex Smith take the team one step further? Or is he already outplaying his ceiling?
I’m not sure where to go in this mess of a division.
Tony: Much like the AFC South, the West may feature competitive football that isn’t all that interesting, unless you’ve got Amari Cooper in a couple of your fantasy leagues (yay me!). The Chiefs do appear to have the inside track, but with Justin Houston possibly starting the season on PUP, Jamaal Charles coming off another knee injury, Eric Berry staying away from camp, and Andy Reid, they might have too many issues to overcome.
Which probably opens the door for the Raiders, who actually last had a winning record the year after Gruden left … when they faced Gruden in the Super Bowl. Although the Raiders may face another distraction as the season drags on, with their potential move to Las Vegas—no telling on how the fans may react. Unlike in San Diego, where an announcement that the team is moving to Los Angeles may draw the biggest cheers at their games this season … until the likely follow up announcement that Los Angeles would prefer to wait another 20 years, rather than watch the brand of football that the Chargers would bring to town. (more…)
Tony: If you’ve got Amazon Prime, and you’re a fan of the NFL (which, if you’re reading this, I assume you are), then I highly recommend you start watching All or Nothing: A Season with the Arizona Cardinals. Now. Seriously, we’ll wait.
The 2015 Cardinals were a great story, and the NFL Films crew did a great job documenting it. And in 2016, there’s no reason in my mind to expect much less. The Cardinals added Chandler Jones by trading a starting guard, replaced the guard with Evan Mathis, and drafted one of the more intriguing names in Robert Nkemdiche, who’s draft stock fell faster than that time he fell out of a hotel window.
Seemingly the only thing that could stop the Cardinals from repeating as division champion would be the Seattle Seahawks, who are probably excited to see if Russell Wilson can keep getting lucky on the field, now that he’s getting lucky off the field. The Seahawks are still suspect on the offensive line, and have questions at running back with Marshawn Lynch retiring, but they still have one of the best defenses in the league.
Andy: I’ll give you a reason why the Cardinals can’t repeat. Brett Favre.
You remember how great he was in 2009, leading the Vikings within a 12-men-in-the-huddle call of a FG to win the NFC Championship game? Most thought when he came back in 2010, it would be the same story. But instead, injuries and age set in, Brad Childress got canned and Favre left the game crumpled and concussed in a heap.
Carson Palmer was fantastic in 2015 right up until the NFC Championship game. But age is catching up with him too. I don’t think the fall will be quite as dramatic with him as it was with Favre. But I do think Arizona takes a step back.
And yes, Tony is right, it is Seattle that will challenge Arizona. And the Seahawks will win. The offensive line is suspect, but it is better than it was at the start of 2015. Thomas Rawls will do a passable Marshawn Lynch impression and he’ll have help from Christine Michael and, eventually, C.J. Prosise. But what has me most intrigued about Seattle this year is the continued emergence of Russell Wilson, who really came on the second half of last season when he was given the chance to start winging the ball a bit more. Watch out for Tyler Lockett this season – he’s a star in the making.
After that you’ve got St. Lou … Err, the Los Angeles Rams returning and, much like before they left, mostly achieving mediocrity. My only questions on the Rams: A) How long will Jeff Fisher keep his job while producing repeated 8-8, 7-9 seasons and B) How long before the Los Angeles fans stop showing up, reminding everyone why two teams left that city within the last 30 years?
Tony: My guess—one season, and two seasons. I think Rams ownership kept Fisher around for the transition because 1) he’d done it before (moving the Houston Oilers to Tennessee), and to have one fewer transitions to worry about while adjusting to their new city. Barring a miraculous turnaround, I suspect they will clean the slate while also announcing a return to their just as ugly blue and yellow uniforms.
And then you’ve got the 49ers, who’s fall from grace has been so amazing that they likely rival San Diego for most dysfunctional franchise in the NFL. Seriously, how did we reach the point where the Oakland Raiders are the model franchise within the state—at least for another year or so?
Andy: I actually like the Rams’ ugly blue and yellow uniforms. Bring them back! Bring them back!
The Rams have some talent, but not nearly as much as Arizona. They do have more than San Francisco. I echo everything Tony said in the last paragraphs.
Tony’s Prediction:
Arizona
Seattle
San Francisco
Los Angeles
Andy’s Prediction:
Seattle
Arizona
St. Louis, err, Los Angeles
San Francisco
Tony: After the Super Bowl last year, I predicted to Andy that the Carolina Panthers would not make the playoffs in 2016, largely based on the immaturity shown by Cam Newton after the loss to the Denver Broncos—but also on the level of competitiveness of the rest of the division. I’m not sure I still believe my prediction, because the Panthers still have the fewest questions in the division, even after cutting Josh Norman—but at least two teams in the division do appear to be closing the gap.
Andy: I wonder which of the teams Tony think hasn’t closed the gap.
I like where the Bucs are headed. Jameis Winston was solid as a rookie and should only get better. I am not alone in expecting that Mike Evans will take his already solid play up a notch this year. And while Lavonte David’s prediction that the Bucs’ defense can be the best ever is stunningly laughable, it does have some interesting pieces.
But there are questions. As there are in Atlanta and New Orleans, where, respectively, the ability to rush the passer and the ability to field a professional level defense, are in serious question.
Of the two, I think New Orleans has the offense more capable of overcoming a way subpar defense. Michael Thomas should be a fun-to-watch replacement for Marcus Colston. And Drew Brees can still sling the pig. I question in Atlanta whether Mohamed Sanu can replace the departed Roddy White as Julio Jones’ sidekick. That said, the Matt Ryan-to-Julio Jones combo is always formidable. (more…)
Tony: What a difference a week makes…when we started writing these summaries, the NFC North looked like it might be one of the most entertaining battles in the NFL, with the Vikings and Packers going back at it again after the Vikings managed to wrest the division title away from the Pack in 2015.
A few days later, and the Vikings are trying to figure out if Shaun Hill can hold together for 16 games, something he’s never even been close to having to do before.
And oddly enough, in a very un-Minnesotan like manner, there are still a lot of fans who think that the defense, combined with Adrian Peterson, still provides a legitimate shot at the division. Of course, many Viking fans have also showed their idiocy following Teddy Bridgewater’s injury, which is disheartening to this Viking fan.
Meanwhile, Green Bay did it’s regular Green Bay thing, by adding such offseason free agents as Jared Cook and…well, that’s about it. Of course, getting Jordy Nelson back, along with about 80% of Eddie Lacy back, means the Packers should improve upon their 23rd ranked offense (yardage)—but will their defense maintain or improve on their performance from 2015?
And one of the funniest comments I saw on Twitter after the Bridgewater injury was a Lions fan asking if a door had just opened for the Lions…
Andy: The Bridgewater injury was agonizing, as was the fan follow up. I actually saw one guy say the Vikings should trade Bridgewater and a 1st for Philip Rivers or Eli Manning … Like for some reason the Giants or Chargers were going to be clamoring to acquire a QB whose knee had just been turned to goo.
Shaun Hill is a guy you don’t mind throwing in for a game or two if Teddy gets nicked, but Hill, at five years younger than me, is not the guy you want to throw out there for 16 games. That means the Vikings will be looking for waiver wire or trade targets, which means they’re not going to have their guy at QB for two to four weeks, perhaps.
So … Yeah, I don’t think Minnesota overcomes that this year. It’s a disappointment for Vikings fans, but Green Bay will win the division this year. They might have even before the injury, but now I think they do so comfortably.
With Nelson back and Lacy not eating everything in site, the offense was going to be improved. The Vikings’ defense is still good enough to compete for a playoff spot. And … No, a door did not just open for the Lions. Not even a crack.
Tony: Nor did the door open for the Bears, who are likely once again the doormats of the division. They made some solid free agency signings, like Danny Trevathan and Jerrell Freeman, and some interesting draft picks like Cody Whitehair, but the team was too void of talent to take the next step, even with the master of squeezing everything out of the talent a team has (until Super Bowl time) John Fox at the helm.
In fact, I only see two ways that the Bears could jump the Lions this year—first, if the Lions learn to regret their decision to retain Jim Caldwell, who has always just struck me as outmatched for some reason—great coordinator, lacking as a head coach. The second is if Jay Cutler somehow out performs Matthew Stafford in their new look offenses—something that seems to be a stretch. Cutler finally gets a chance to have two real WR again, with Kevin White healthy—but also has to overcome the offensive coordinator that re-vitalized his career taking his talents to South Beach. Meanwhile, Stafford lost his best target in Calvin Johnson—but very well may be better off for it, as he can more effectively distribute the ball to his full array of weapons, which includes newly signed Marvin Jones, who has impressed in preseason.
I still don’t like the Lions to jump into the playoff discussion yet, as their defense still has a ways to go, but they might be another team that is headed in the right direction.
Andy: I find it hard to believe that Stafford will be “better off” for not having Johnson, but there will be, out of necessity, a more balanced approach. That said, with guys like Eric Ebron, Marvin Jones and Ameer Abdullah, who have not exactly been the picture of durability throughout their respective careers, I see attrition as one way the Bears could step up and finish at the top of the lower half of the North. High praise, I know.
This is a two team division, in terms of the playoff race. Probably about one-and-one-third with Bridgewater’s injury. The Lions and Bears are playing to stay out of last place.
Tony: in 2015, the NFC East was the worst division in the NFL. However, with the emergence of Kirk Cousins in Washington, preseason hero Dak Prescott in Dallas, the Giants spending big in free agency and the Eagles firing Chip Kelly and trying to undo his damage, we can expect 2016 to be…probably still the worst division in the NFL. Seriously, the only thing that any of these teams really have going for them is the fact that none of the other teams in the division seem to be that interested in pulling away.
Possibly the most confusing team in the division is the New York Giants, who are presumably trying for one last shot at glory for Eli Manning, and on paper made some enticing moves, signing Janoris Jenkins and Oliver Vernon. It’s when you look at the dollars that it starts to get confusing—a record setting deal for Vernon, who is on the small side as a DE, and has 29 sacks in 4 seasons, with a career high of 11.5 set three seasons ago—not exactly All-Pro numbers, unless you’re Pro Football Focus. Add in $62.5 million for Jenkins—a deal that even Pro Football Focus graded as a ‘D’—and you’ve got almost $150 million tied up over four years in two guys that are not proven superstars. Not the kind of moves that would seem to put you over the top for winning the division, much less a Super Bowl.
Andy: Yeah, there’s no Super Bowl team coming from this division. If there were any justice in the world, there probably wouldn’t even be a playoff team coming from this division. Historically, most of these teams are among the league’s proudest and most competitive. Right now it’s a cesspool of garbage football.
Washington, now fully committed to Cousins, seemed closest to being on the right track last season. But Matt Jones seems to like to dance and fumble and the backup plan at running back is … Chris Thompson? Keith Marshall? Mack Brown? Robert Kelley? So that means Cousin is likely going to have to fling the pig a lot, again, and I’m not sure he can A) Match his 29-11 TD-INT ratio from last season or B) not get killed in doing so. Add in the injury and inconsistency histories of guys like stud TE Jordan Reed and WR DeSean Jackson and, I don’t know, this feels like a team that could either improve on 9-7 and repeat as NFC East champion or revert back to about 6-10.
The encouraging thing for Washington, though, has to be that with the Eagles in a rebuild, the Giants in … whatever they are in, and the Cowboys desperately hoping to hold Tony Romo together with duct tape and super glue, 6-10 might be enough to win the NFC East this year.
Tony: I sincerely hope that 6-10 isn’t really good enough to win a division—it’s bad enough when people whine about letting the six best records in when a 7-9 team gets in and a 10-6 team misses the cut—the Bernie Sanders argument for the NFL playoffs. I realize it sucks that a team with a sub-500 record gets in, but the answer isn’t eliminating division winners getting playoff spots (which would kill rivalries), nor is it letting in a 7th team (welcome to the NBA, folks). It happens like once every 15 years—the answer is to suck it up, shut up, and deal with it.
Off the top of my head, the Cowboys seem like the biggest threat to Washington’s division title defense, with still one of the best offensive lines in the league, and a really solid running back situation that includes both a rookie that has already been anointed by many (especially in the fantasy ranks) as a top-3 running back, and a solid Alfred Morris who was somewhat inexplicably jettisoned from Washington after one down year. But as Andy mentioned, health is a big concern—they’ve already lost Tony Romo for the first half of the season since they only put a plate on his clavicle, not his spinal column, and with Ezekiel Elliott already missing some time with a hamstring issue, Cowboy fans may already be sweating more than your average Packer fan does while walking to the mailbox. And that doesn’t even bring up their defensive questions, which include a suspect secondary, injury prone linebackers, and a defensive line that has a tendency to get themselves suspended, to the point that I am half expecting a call from Jerry Jones to see if I would be interested in coming out of retirement to play defensive end…and I haven’t played since high school. And I never played defensive end.
Andy: Ouch. So you’re not in favor of my suggestion from awhile back to require eight wins to be a playoff team? If it were up to me, the sub-.500 teams would be replaced by the team with the best record that didn’t otherwise qualify (link if we can find it).
Anyway, I think Washington is the best team in the division, but we also know that you rarely, if ever, see all the same teams make the playoffs in back-to-back years. And this is the worst division, so I am going to go with a new team here. I will say the Giants will pull it together. Jason-Pierre Paul will figure out how to play semi-dominant defense with what’s left of his right hand. That will help improve a defense that added a couple bodies in the secondary.
And the offense, which has been competitive throughout the team’s suckitude, adds Sterling Sheperd to a receiving corps that also improved by getting rid of Reuben Randle. Eli Manning seems to have achieved comfort in the XX offense. So even if the defense isn’t exactly good, New York should be able to put enough points on the board to approach .500 or slightly better.
Tony’s addressed Dallas’ issues with Romo. Dak Prescott has looked good and I think he’ll be better than anything the Cowboys tried passing off as NFL-caliber QB play last year, but he hasn’t faced anything yet that resembles a regular season defense. And the team’s defense is mostly suspended right now. So … Dallas will struggle again.
Let’s see, oh yeah, Philadelphia is still in this division too. Doug Pederson should be an improvement as coach, but … There’s a lot of digging out to be done. (And, as an aside, Sam Bradford sucks and has not done nearly enough to warrant holding out for parts of the summer because of hurt feelings over the team drafting a QB in round one. He can suck it.) If I were the Eagles I’d think of selling off as many parts as possible for draft picks and looking forward to 2017, when the Carson Wentz era likely begins.
Tony: Yes, the NFC East will at least be interesting to watch, if not entertaining—so long as you’re ok watching bad football.
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