I think the strongest teams in the league this season overall reside in the AFC. But a look at the NFC reveals that
there are definitely a handful of teams that on a good day will push the best of the best.
The truth again probably lies somewhere between what I really think and what I came up with at the playoffpredictors site.
Here goes:
NFC North (more…)
I was going to skip the preview this season – somewhere around nine people read the ones we did last year. Previews come from everywhere – it didn’t seem like people were clamoring for more.
Then I came across a site where, in about 10 minutes, I could run through every game on the schedule and the site would keep track of won-loss records, playoff seedings, tiebreakers, etc. So I figured WTF.
I filled it out and I laughed at some of my results. Pittsburgh 15-1? I think they win the division, but I don’t think they’re good enough to run the table to that extent. The bottom three teams in the AFC East (everyone but the Patriots) combining for seven wins? Nah. There’s some bad football going on, particularly in New York, but they won’t be that bad.
Nonetheless, when you set aside the records, or at least look at them with a grain of salt, the rankings came pretty close to what I was thinking I thought. So … WTF. Here are some of my thoughts – hopefully the nine of you who enjoyed these posts last year think it was worthwhile to return.
AFC North
Pittsburgh 15-1
Baltimore 8-8
Cincinnati 6-10
Cleveland 5-11
Explanation: Again, I don’t expect the Steelers to go 15-1. I don’t expect them to win the top seed. I do expect them to win the division and I could see them in a deep competition for the second bye. Baltimore could do a bit better. I’m uncertain about the QB and the run game but I really like John Harbaugh. They’re a wild card contender, as far as I am concerned.
I’ve thought Cincinnati was on the downhill slide for a couple seasons. The offensive line defections, Andrew Whitworth and Kevin Zeitler, will hurt an offense run by a barely good enough QB and Cincy will see the end of the Marvin Lewis era at season’s end. On the north side of Ohio, I think the Browns are finally headed in the right direction. That said, they’re playing a rookie QB and coming off a nearly winless season. Five wins would represent solid improvement.
AFC South
Tennessee 13-3
Houston 8-8
Jacksonville 6-10
Indianapolis 1-15
Explanation:
This is another situation where the records are off a bit, but the order is spot on. I don’t think the Titans are quite ready to hit 13-3. But I do think Marcus Mariota and the smashmouth run game will continue improving, and I think the division is ripe for the taking. Tennessee is the best of the lot, in my eyes. Houston has a great defense, but until the QB situation is settled – and I think Deshaun Watson will eventually be the guy there – they’re going to struggle on offense. Houston may be a game or two better than .500, but this spot feels right. Jacksonville is in a similar, albeit younger spot. I like a lot of the talent the Jags have. I am close to giving up on Blake Bortles. A 6-10 mark could potentially show some improvement, but how the QB develops will be the main point in determining the success or lack thereof in 2017.
The Colts won’t be 1-15 bad – unless Andrew Luck is out for the season. Scott Tolzien is a stiff. But all signs point to Luck coming back. I also think the new GM Chris Ballard is making some good, behind-the-radar moves to make things better there. But he’s got a bit of a mess to clean up. The defense will still be bad and the offense will take a while to get up to full speed with Luck and center Ryan Kelly not yet healthy.
AFC East
New England 14-2
Buffalo 4-12
Miami 2-14
New York Jets 1-15
Explanation:
The records went a bit off the rails here. I do expect some bad football from the bottom of this division, especially from the Jets, where 1-15 may not be off target. I see Miami and Buffalo both as closer to six- to eight-win teams. QB play among all three of these teams is an ongoing issue and there are not enough supporting parts on any of the teams to make up for that lack of a star at the helm.
That said, the Patriots remain the class of this division. In this case, I see 14-2 as very close to spot on. I think the Pats clinch the division by Thanksgiving and take the one seed in the conference.
AFC West
Denver 14-2
Kansas City 11-5
Oakland 10-6
Los Angeles 9-7
Explanation:
As bad as the East is, I think the West is this good. I do not see Denver going 14-2. The QB play won’t be good enough. And it’s possible the defense falls a notch. That said, this is still a top-notch, competitive team that will be right in the mix for the division and an upper seed in the playoffs. My pre-season picks puts the Broncos as the third seed. I can see it.
But Kansas City and, in particular, Oakland, will push Denver all season long. I am a huge fan of Derek Carr. I think Marshawn Lynch disappoints those who think he’ll come back and consistently show “Beast Mode” skills from the past, but he’ll be a threat at the goal line. The Raiders are close. Same with the Chiefs, though they’ll rely more on the defense for now. I am looking forward to the Patrick Mahomes era. I think he could be a really good QB. Soon.
The Chargers continue to have holes on the offensive line and Philip Rivers is aging fast. So, especially in this division, the window is barely open. But there is a crack. And if they can win some of the close ones they lost last season, the San Diego/Los Angeles Chargers will not be an easy win for anyone.
Welcome to the first ever (formal) Rampant Speculation, where we go full-on Mike Florio style, and speculate on something that we have absolutely no idea about whatsoever, purely based on what we think might be logical—despite the obvious fact that little in the NFL seems logical, to “layfolk” like us.
So what has us speculating that 2017 could, in fact, be Tom Brady’s last season playing in the NFL? After all, he seems to be still playing at a high level, having just led his team to the biggest comeback in Super Bowl history, becoming just the second player in NFL history (after Charles Haley) to win five Super Bowls—the first quarterback, the first to do so all with one team—and the first to win four Super Bowl MVPs (rightfully or not). Statistically, he had another incredible season, with a 28:2 TD to Int ratio (best all time), completed a career second best 67.4% of his passes, and finished the season 11-1.
Add in that he’s on record saying that he would like to play 10 more years (as recently as the week before the Super Bowl), and who even former backup Scott Zolak has said will likely play at least three more years, and what couple we possibly be thinking?
Well, to start, there’s the lede in Florio’s own story—his wife, Giselle, has told him he should walk out on top—and Zolak agrees that if he wins a sixth Super Bowl, he might just do that. The addition of Brandin Cooks & Stephen Gillmore to the Patriots roster would seem to make them the early odds on favorite to do just that—it will be hard to pick against them, no matter what other teams do.
Secondly, while Brady did play incredibly in 2016, there were moments during the Super Bowl—the first extended action of Brady’s that I saw this year—that he looked a little…Peyton Manning-esque. As in 2015 Peyton Manning. As in medium to deep passes looking a bit wobbly, and looking a bit more human as the Falcons pummeled him. One thing that could hurt Brady’s chance for ring number six in 2017—if teams decide that the path to finally toppling the Pats is by physically abusing Brady, no matter the cost. Some teams might be ready to do that, just out of spite.
The final reason for thinking that Brady could be done after 2017—the reason I actually started thinking that there’s a better than zero percent chance—the Patriots appear to be set on not moving Jimmy Garoppolo. After all of the success that Bill Belichick has had in seemingly being clairvoyant in moving players right before they started to decline, or maximizing return on guys who clearly wouldn’t have a role—he suddenly is keeping his young backup quarterback, who after starting the season with a bang in 2016 for the suspended Brady, could easily bring back a high first round pick from a team like the Browns? Garappolo will be a free agent after the 2017 season, at which point you know that a quarterback needy team will back up the armored truck to his house—and you have to assume that Garappolo wants the chance to start.
Not trading Garappolo while at peak value—especially when they stand to get minimal return in 2018 (some sort of compensatory pick)—is an incredibly un-Belichick like move—and one that could have roots in Belichick knowing something that no one else does. If Belichick knows already that 2017 could be Brady’s final season—and has had that conversation with Garappolo in some form—it could be the Patriots themselves that back up the armored truck to his door. After all, it would be ideal to replace Brady with someone who has been in the exact same system for four years, and has shown (albeit in limited experience) that he can perform at a similarly high level? Sure, keeping something like this secret would seemingly be a difficult task—but Belichick and the Patriots seem to be experts at keeping things in house.
And if you’re Garappolo—wouldn’t you relish the chance to start the next phase of your career—as a starting NFL quarterback—running the best franchise in the league, potentially continuing the dynasty run for another 8-10 years?
That should be a scary thought to other NFL Executives—and one that has probably crossed more than just my mind.
Andy: So in the NFC, I’ve got Seattle regaining the top seed. Carolina will have the other bye. Green Bay will take the three seed and the New York Giants, because someone has to come out of the NFC East, will host a wild card game as the four.
I see four teams most strongly contending for the wild card. I think Arizona slides a bit, but they’re still strong enough where I can’t see anyone knocking them out. I’ll give them the five seed.
That leaves, in my eyes, Tampa, Washington and Minnesota as potential six seeds. The Vikings, I think, have the best chance of advancing from that spot if they do get there. But with the Sam Bradford
acquisition, it could take a few extra weeks for this team to hit stride. So far, four of the five teams I have selected were in the playoffs in 2015. Someone always surprises. Let’s leave the Vikings out and
put the Bucs in the postseason.
Tony: I don’t think Carolina reclaims the top spot–they might get a bye, though more by default, as the Packers have a difficult division and the East just isn’t that good. The Cardinals are just as good of a
team, and have an easier schedule with the Rams and 49ers. (more…)
Andy: I bet against the mighty Bengals last year and it bit me when Andy Dalton actually looked like a seasoned NFL starting QB all year – or at least up until he broke his hand late in the season. It took all the way into the postseason – late in the game against Pittsburgh – for the lack of team discipline to cost Cincinnati in 2015. But when it hit, it hit big time. I was wrong last year, but I’m going to the well again – the Bengals will disappoint in 2016 and Marvin Lewis will finally be replaced at season’s end.
Tony: You’re ignoring the biggest story of the AFC North, which is obviously Kamar Aiken’s emergence as the Ravens top receiving threat in 2015, and ascension to top 10 WR status in 2016 with a healthy Joe Flacco.
All right, even I won’t believe that one, but I still think holding onto him in our dynasty league was the right move, as with the injury issues the Ravens have had even in the 2016 preseason, Aiken might be the most consistent offensive threat the Ravens have. Which is why the Ravens may challenge the Cleveland Browns for the cellar in the North, as the Browns had the first offseason in a long time in which you can say that the Browns actually seemed to make mostly all the right moves—cutting ties with Johnny Trainwreck, bringing in Hue Jackson as the head coach, signing Robert Griffin as a low-risk, high reward QB rather than overdrafting, and maneuvering in the draft. Some key free agent defections may hurt them too much to climb out of the basement this year, but they’ve set themselves up for some bigger strides in 2017, if ownership and the fan base can take a deep breath and revel in the Cavaliers championship for a season.
Andy: So, you’re starting at the bottom. Okay. Yeah, the Ravens are bad. The Browns are too. But Baltimore has some proven leadership in Ozzie Newsome and John Harbaugh, whose ability to rebuild is proven. The Browns … Well, they’re on like their 12th coach in five years or something like that.
I actually like some of the things Cleveland has done this offseason. The RGIII move carries little risk. They added some skill position players. They’ve cut ties with a bunch of guys tied to the losing years. One they kept, Josh Gordon, is clearly on his last chance.
There may be hope for the future here, but it’s going to take awhile to get there.
All this being said, the North this year belongs to highly volatile offense in Pittsburgh.
Tony: The Steelers still have to go through Cincinnati to win the North, and they’re a key injury away from being closer to Cleveland in more ways than looking at a map. If Big Ben goes down—again—for any period of time, the Steelers still don’t have an answer. It’s bad enough that they brought in Zach Mettenberger off of waivers…who couldn’t even make the Chargers final roster. That’s not good.
Meanwhile, Cincinnati just keeps on trucking along, with the core of their offense back in 2016 after somewhat of a breakout year from Andy Dalton, and a defense that hopefully learned something from their playoff meltdown against the Steelers. In fact, the biggest thing that the Bengals may have to overcome isn’t the Steelers—it’s their own mindset, after yet another year of Marvin Lewis failing to have the team ready.
Andy: I can’t actually disagree with that logic. The Bengals may have equal or even better talent than the Steelers, especially on defense. But there is a head-case-ness to this Bengals team that just won’t go away. And it can’t be sucking the entire decade of the 1990s that’s causing this anymore. This team has been competitive for the last half-decade.
Pittsburgh, even when they’re not that talented, still has a Steelers-ness to them that makes them dangerous anyway.
Andy Prediction:
Pittsburgh
Cincinnati
Baltimore
Cleveland
Tony Prediction:
Cincinnati
Pittsburgh
Baltimore
Cleveland
Andy: DeflateGate is done. Tom Brady is suspended for the first four games of the regular season. And it just doesn’t matter. This division has been owned by the Patriots for the last decade-and-change, and they’re going to keep that string going this year.
If there is one coach who will turn this situation into an Us versus the World scenario and use it to get his troops on board, it’s Bill Belichick. And I’ll take Angry Tom Brady for 12 games for a fantasy football team or a real one. Jimmy Garoppolo, while not special, is a veteran who will hold things together fine until Brady returns.
Everyone else is just playing for the Wild Card.
Tony: I don’t know…I just saw Tom Brady in a mattress commercial. I’m not so sure he’s not getting a little soft, with his suspension kicking into high gear. Certainly Belichick and Robert Kraft want him to show Roger Goodell a thing or two, but…I’m not sure if his head’s still in it.
Still, for him to not win the division, one of the other three teams would have to step up—and they’re being led by a guy with well over 100 starts with no playoff appearances, a guy who no one seems to know what to think about, and a guy who no one is confident that even the guy who fixed Jay Cutler last year can accomplish anything with. All three teams have some interesting components to them, but none of them stand out as real threats at this time to the Patriots AC East Dynasty.
The Dolphins may have the highest ceiling, with a new coach, young receiving core, and solid defensive line—but they also may have the lowest floor, with Arian Foster starting at running back (until he gets hurt…week 3) behind Ryan Tannehill, who could have a breakout season under Adam Gase, or could be riding the pine by the end of the year. (more…)
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