Buyer Beware: Polian tenures come with ups and downs

I was shocked when I heard news yesterday about Bill Polian—not that he had been fired, but that apparently Twitter was blowing up with Vikings fans & local sports media wanting to quickly make a move to bring him in as the voice of authority for the team.  Digging deeper showed that many other media & fan bases, including Chicago, Oakland, and even Dallas were clamoring over the opportunity to hire a “proven commodity” in Polian.

But they all seem to be overlooking one significant factor – Bill Polian’s track record is generally one of building teams that are great in the regular season, then failing in the playoffs, or ultimately in the big game itself. Essentially he is to football exactly what the local media uses in Minnesota ridicule the Minnesota Twins – regular season success followed by postseason failure.

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Playoffs 2011-12: Assessing the NFC

It’s a new year and I’m vowing to post more and better content to this blog in 2012. Well, at least more content to this blog, anyway. I’ll start with my own assessment of the NFL playoffs.

There are too many scenarios in the AFC heading into week 17. But the NFC outlook is pretty simple. There are a couple seeding issues to be resolved and then there’s the strangely bad NFC East yet to be decided, but otherwise it’s a pretty clear picture. Here’s a reverse-order assessment of who I think the conference’s biggest contenders are for the Lombardi Trophy.

(And here is a link to my thoughts on the AFC)

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Unwillingness to embrace run may again be Reid’s downfall

Philadelphia looked bored and pathetic in a 17 point loss on the road in Seattle last night, dropping the alleged Dream Team’s record to 4-8.

This underachieving mess of a team put an explanation point on its terrible season by not only getting crushed by a bad-but-competitive Seattle team. Many of its players, particularly DeSean Jackson, embarrassed themselves by appearing to loaf throughout portions of the nationally-televised game.

The season has gotten so bad that Andy Reid, one of the league’s most successful coaches over the last dozen years, is clearly on the hotseat, at least with Eagles fans.

I think it’s questionable whether Philly can find a better coach than Reid. At the same time, in this day and age, he’s outlasted most of his brethren. And often times, even the best of coaches lose their teams and have to be replaced, if only to give the 53 rostered players a new voice.

If he does end up getting canned, Reid can likely blame one of his longest-running issues – his inability to set aside his addiction to passing.

This was a bit more understandable when his best back was Brian Westbrook, an extremely exciting, but also fragile runner who had to be protected. During most of Westbrook’s tenure with the team, Correll Buckhalter, a solid-but-unspectacular contributor, was his top backup and Buckhalter wasn’t exactly able to avoid the injury bug either.

But this year Philadelphia has one of the league’s best runners in LeSean McCoy – maybe the best. The Eagles are 3-1 when he gets 23 or more carries. He produces to the tune of 552 yards rushing and four touchdowns on the ground in those games, as well.

McCoy has 12 rushing touchdowns on the season and he’s added three more through the air. I don’t think he compares quite yet with Barry Sanders, but more than once I’ve seen the NFLNetwork and other football shows show footage of Sanders when describing Shady’s footwork and his moves.

Way too often, Reid lets McCoy disappear for long stretches, again letting the offense get overly pass happy. And when he does, the team suffers. When McCoy gets fewer than 20 carries (all the rest of the games) they are 1-7.

And you can’t attribute that to those games being out of hand. In a loss to Atlanta, McCoy averaged 5.3 yards per carry on 18 carries in a four point loss. Against Buffalo, he had 80 yards on 11 carries in a touchdown loss. He has only 16 carries against Chicago, despite averaging 4.4 yards per in a six point loss and he had 81 yards on 14 carries against Arizona – 5.8 yards per carry – in a four point loss.

Against San Francisco, McCoy had just 18 yards on his nine carries. So you can argue the run wasn’t working that day against a solid defense. But A) do you take the ball entirely out of a proven weapon’s hands altogether and B) it’s often said the yardage gained matters less than the threat.

Hell, even in last night’s dud, Seattle was only up 10 and was driving late for a score that could have pulled the game within a field goal before Vince Young threw another pick.

The impact McCoy’s lack of presence has on a game has been even more noticeable the last three weeks as Vince Young has been filling in as Michael Vick lets his ribs heal. Against the Giants on November 20, McCoy got 23 carries and went for 113 yards. He didn’t score, but he helped the Eagles hold onto the ball for 36:18, keeping Eli Manning and Co. off the field. Young was hardly stellar that day, throwing three picks, but Philadelphia held on for a seven-point win.

Against New England and Seattle, McCoy had a total of 27 carries. Meanwhile, Young has thrown 48 and 29 passes in those two games and has contributed eight picks during his three-game starting stretch against four touchdown passes.

It doesn’t even have to be about scoring more points. There was a game a few years ago where Reid coached the Eagles against a terrible Oakland team with an abysmal run defense and he called only a couple handfuls of running plays. The Eagles lost in one of the most stunning upsets of the season.

This year Reid is coaching that defense. His team cannot stop the run. That should be all the more reason to pound the ball with McCoy and Ronnie Brown. Maybe you don’t get a lot more points. But running the ball takes time off the clock. Maybe by running the ball you eat up enough time where you prevent the 49ers from having the opportunity late in the game to complete the comeback from a 23-3 deficit.  As the old saying goes, the best defense is a good offense.

I will give Reid some credit. I don’t get to see every Eagles game but they’re high-profile with the networks this season and in the games I have watched he appears more willing to run the ball at the goal line. But overall, getting McCoy touches has appeared to be an obvious catalyst toward the small runs of success this team has had during its disappointing 2011 campaign. Too often the running back disappears.

That’s not McCoy’s fault. It’s Reid’s. In a year in which many of his stars have underperformed (Jackson, Asomugha, et al) or been hurt (Maclin, Vick, et al), he has got to see to it that the one weapon who has consistently produced for him all season long continues to get his hands on the ball.

His failure to do so may cost him his job.

Packers perfect season in 2011? Part three

We wrote a couple weeks ago about the Green Bay Packers chances of getting through the regular season and the NFC playoffs undefeated. So far so good for fans of the green and gold.

So what happens if they do make it unscathed to the Super Bowl? Do they meet the same fate the 18-1 New England Patriots did in 2007? Or do they finish the job and become the league’s first unbeaten team since the 1972 Miami Dolphins?

The AFC is a logjam this season. Nobody in the conference is better than  Green Bay. But there are a few teams that could at least give the Packers a good game. Here are our guesses: (more…)

Hester aims to be Hall’s first returner

Is Devin Hester Hall of Fame worthy?

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I almost always read Peter King’s Monday Morning Quarterback column. Sports Illustrated’s top football guy always has some interesting nuggets.

This week I was struck by a quote King got from Chicago return man Devin Hester, who lit up the Detroit Lions this weekend with an 82-yard punt return touchdown and numerous other long returns.

Hester told King he wants to be the first returner in the league to get voted into the Hall of Fame. I thought the comment was interesting for a couple reasons. First, it’s an acknowledgement on the part of Hester that he is known almost solely for his return work, as his play at wide receiver has been average, at best.

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