ZB Notebook: 12-18-2012

by | Dec 18, 2012 | 2012 season, NFL Random Thoughts

Wow. The Monday night season ended with a thud. After having a couple of decent matchups, ESPN was stuck with the Titans and the Jets last night and, though I didn’t watch a play, the highlights make it look like it lived up to its lack of billing.

How can the Jets keep tossing Mark Sanchez out there to watch him get destroyed week after week? The team still has at least a passable defense, but the offense is a mess. NFL Network has been running a poll asking if the blame should lay more with Sanchez or coach Rex Ryan. I would argue that it’s difficult to answer that question: Sanchez has been brutal but Ryan has stuck with him … not that I’m a huge believer in Tim Tebow or Greg McElroy at this point either.

I’m guessing Ryan is firmly on the hot seat (he was my number two coach likely to get fired in the preseason). It’s not as much a given that he’ll be fired as it is with Norv Turner and Andy Reid, but I’d say it’s a better than 50/50 proposition at this point.

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ZB Notebook: 12-13-2012

by | Dec 13, 2012 | 2012 season, NFL Random Thoughts

Drew Brees and Roger Goodell far from burying the hatchet

New Orleans Saints players indicted and convicted by Commissioner Goodell had their suspensions overturned by Paul Tagliabue, who had been appointed to take another look at the BountyGate allegations.

But neither the commissioner, nor Saints quarterback Brees are backing down from the ongoing fight.

Brees chimed in shortly after Tabliabue’s ruling saying Goodell lacked credibility with players and fans for how he handled the incidents. The quarterback has been outspoken from the start about his frustration with how the allegations were handled.

Goodell responded via the Huffington Post article by saying he would not apologize for anything and indicating that he still believes the Saints employed a bounty system and that doing so was unacceptable.

I’m not sure either guy is completely right. I think Goodell has done a credible job since becoming commissioner of creating penalties for players who A) don’t conduct themselves well off the field and who B) carelessly put opposing players in danger with massive hits, etc.

But like many of his critics, I think Goodell has gone too far in appointing himself as accuser and judge. There needs to be a more equitable and fair process. And he has been less than forthcoming about any evidence that does exist against Saints players, executives and coaches.

Brees, meanwhile, has always conducted himself with respect and class. But he seems to have buried his head in the sand, at least to some respect, as far as BountyGate goes, seemingly denying that anything took place despite admissions from defensive coordinator Gregg Williams and others.

It’s understandable that Brees would be frustrated about how the season has unfolded. The 5-8 Saints are virtually out of the playoff race and he isn’t getting any younger. How many more chances he’ll have to chase a second Super Bowl is no guarantee.

But still, even if the evidence against the players wasn’t strong, penalties against Williams, Sean Payton, Joe Vitt and Mickey Loomis were warranted, whether the ones they received went overboard or not.

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Timing of Cameron firing risky for Ravens

by | Dec 13, 2012 | 2012 season, NFL Random Thoughts

Okay, I saw this week how the Baltimore Ravens made the fairly dramatic in-season move of replacing their offensive coordinator.

Cam Cameron went down for a number of alleged reasons, including his offense’s inconsistency and, interestingly enough, his apparent unwillingness to get the ball in the hands of star running back Ray Rice.

Here’s my question: Just how many touches is enough for Rice, a running back who is huge in fight and heart but not in stature?

Rounded, Rice is averaging 17 carries per game, down one from last year. He is averaging four catches per season, down one from last year. He has gotten 95 touches in the last four games. He has gotten more than 20 touches in seven of 13 games. In three of the ones he didn’t, the team either won or lost by more than 30 points. Take a look at what happened to Rob Gronkowski late in a blowout win. I wouldn’t keep giving Rice the ball in blowouts either. (more…)

ZB Notebook 12-4-2012

by | Dec 4, 2012 | 2012 season, NFL Random Thoughts

One of the highlights of the 2012 season continues to be the play of rookie quarterbacks throughout the league. Andrew Luck of the Colts and Robert Griffin III are the most highly publicized, and both continued helping their respective teams toward turnarounds on Sunday and Monday night.

But Russell Wilson also had another career-defining moment, helping the Seahawks to a comeback win over Chicago. In a year without Luck and Griffin, Wilson himself might be in consideration for the Rookie of the Year award.

Brandon Weeden continued his improvement in Cleveland’s win over Oakland. And while Ryan Tannehill and Nick Foles, who showed dramatic improvement Sunday night over what he looked like during the first game against Dallas a month ago, also have had moments.

The game Sunday wasn’t Luck’s best, but he got the job done, particularly when it mattered. The surprising Colts are 8-4. Griffin pulled the Redskins to within a game of the first-place Giants and evened Washington’s record at 6-6. It’s been years before this team has been relevant in December.

Of the league’s 32 teams, six are starting rookies and another seven are starting second-year guys right now. We’ve started some research on how these guys look at this point. We’ve got a ways to go before we’re ready to put anything out, but as guys like Tom Brady, Peyton Manning and Drew Brees (still three of the top five or six in the game) continue aging, it does appear as though the league is in good hands in its search for the stars of tomorrow. (more…)

Megatron trending with current, past WR greats

by | Nov 28, 2012 | 2012 season, Hall of Fame, NFL Random Thoughts

Pride of Detroit wrote this week that Calvin Johnson is on pace to come within 20 yards of breaking the all-time single season receiving yardage record this year, which surprised me because it seemed like until a couple weeks ago he was having a somewhat down season compared with the number he put up in 2011.

As it turns out, Johnson is on pace for an 1828 yard season – just off the pace of Jerry Rice, who had 1848 in 1995. He’s just not getting in the end zone as much – he’s been tackled at the one yard line a ridiculous number of times – but he’s still having another monster year.

After seemingly taking a couple seasons to get acclimated to the NFL game after spending his college days at the wishbone stalwart Georgia Tech, Megatron has been on fire the last couple seasons. In 2011, he led the league in receiving yards with 1681, was second in touchdowns to Rob Gronkowski with 16 (Gronk had 17) and had 96 catches.

His stalwart numbers through the first six years of his career made me wonder how he stacked up with a couple of the league’s all-time greats. And yes, it appears as though these last couple amazingly prolific seasons have put Johnson right in the mix with the likes of Randy Moss and Jerry Rice, whose careers were compared on this site previously.

Barring injury, Johnson will eclipse Rice’s reception total for their first six years. Rice had 446. Johnson has 439 right now with five games left in the regular season for Detroit. He’ll likely fall just short of Rice in yardage, though he’s got a shot to catch him (7,129 with five games left to Rice’s 7,866). Rice’s 79 touchdowns through a half-dozen years has both Moss (77) and Megatron (53). (more…)

Gronk or no Gronk, Patriots primed for playoff run

by | Nov 20, 2012 | 2012 season, NFL Random Thoughts

Editor’s note: Another of our guest bloggers sent us more than we could use for the pick segment this week. Richard Hill, assistant editor with Pats Pulpit, shared some thoughts on how New England looks heading into the latter stages of the season. We decided to turn it into a guest post. Thank you to Richard for sharing his thoughts.

The New England Patriots are coming off a convincing win against the Indianapolis Colts as the season comes down to the final stretch. The Patriots have struggled to close out teams all season and Bill Belichick, Tom Brady, and the rest of the Patriots wanted to put together a full 60 minute performance. The Patriots scored a touchdown in all three phases of the game and, in doing so, tied the franchise mark for most points in a single game.

As the Ravens and the Steelers struggle with injuries and played each other to a low-scoring affair, and the Texans struggled to escape from the one-win Jaguars, the Patriots and the Broncos look to be hitting their strides at the right time. The Patriots +133 point differential is best in the league, helped by a +79 margin over the past three games (38, 6, 35), and the Broncos are riding a league leading five game winning streak behind the hot hand of Peyton Manning.

While the AFC started out as the weaker conference this season, there is little question that the top teams can all duke it out and all five teams have a chance to take home the Super Bowl title- but for now, the divisions have to jockey for positioning as the Patriots and the Broncos try to steal away the Ravens’ current first round bye.

The Broncos have the easiest schedule to close out the season, facing Kansas City twice and a game against both Oakland and Cleveland. They have the opportunity to gain ground in a face-off against the Ravens that could bring the Ravens back to pack.

The Ravens have one of the more difficult treks, with four games against teams with playoff hopes, and a couple more against the dangerous Redskins and the enigmatic Chargers, the Ravens with their dinged up defense could just as easily close the season 0-6 as they do 6-0.

The Patriots find themselves in good position to make the playoffs, needing only two more wins to clinch the division (providing one of those wins is against the Dolphins), but they have the Texans and 49ers on tap- both teams that play extremely complementary football. The Patriots need their defense to start elevating their level of play and, based upon their performance against the Colts, they could be in line for a schematic shift.

When rookie sensation Chandler Jones injured his ankle and left the game, the Patriots had no real consistent pass rush and Bill Belichick was forced to address the defense and set them straight. He dialed up the pressure and strayed from the vanilla pass rush as Andrew Luck was forced to throw in many awkward positions. Devin McCourty’s play at safety, while not at a Pro Bowl level, is miles ahead of whatever free safety they’ve plugged into the position for the past couple of seasons and his play elevates the secondary to new heights.

But while the defense needs to find its groove, the Patriots could have another serious issue on their hand: Rob Gronkowski. Gronkowski is the Patriots All-Pro tight end and a key linchpin to the offense’s success and he has broken his arm and is expected to be out for the next 4-6 weeks.

Gronkowski isn’t replaceable. He’s the best tight end in the league not just for his receiving, but for his league best run blocking. The Patriots don’t have anyone on their roster who can replicate his league leading 17 red zone targets or his league leading 8 red zone touchdowns. The Patriots don’t have anyone to match his team leading 12 receptions of 20+ yards. His presence forces the safeties inside and allows the outside receivers (read: Brandon Lloyd) to have single coverage for back-shoulder throws. He prevents the secondary from crowding the box.

He keeps them honest.

Without Gronk, the Patriots have to hope Aaron Hernandez is healthy enough to take on the New York Jets. Hernandez ties Gronkowski for the 2nd most receptions against the Jets since the 2009 season (both are far behind Wes Welker), and he has the 5th most yards during that same time frame (behind Welker and Gronk).

Additionally, the Patriots need Visanthe Shiancoe, Daniel Fells, and Michael Hoomanawanui to step up in their production. Shiancoe has seen more time on the field, but he has yet to be targeted. Fells, the big free agency signing who was supposed to provide insurance in case of injuries, was a scratch on Sunday. Hoomanawanui has been a serviceable H-Back and should continue to grow.

None of those players are Gronkowski. Of course, the Patriots shouldn’t need Gronkowski to win two more games and make the playoffs (Jets, Dolphins x2, Jaguars are all projected wins), but they need a player to step up if they wish to steal a win from either Houston or San Francisco (why not both?) and secure a playoff bye.

It won’t be easy. They’ll need the Ravens to either drop two games (likely) and beat the Broncos (possible, but it’s at Mile High), or they’ll need the Broncos to stumble along the way  (not likely). The Patriots aren’t in control of their playoff destiny and they’ll have to take the season one week at a time, much like Gronkowski has to take his injury one week at a time.

Of course if there’s one thing the Patriots need to be focusing on, it’s closing out games on a week-to-week basis. Now, without Gronk, hopefully they can manage to close out the season on a high note.