2017 NFC Wildcard Playoff Predictions

2017 NFC Wildcard Playoff Predictions

Atlanta Falcons at Los Angeles Rams – Saturday, January 6th, 2018 – 7:15PM kickoff

Andy: The NFC games are a bit more interesting to me than the AFC games this weekend. That starts with tonight’s game, with a couple of explosive offensive teams matching up in Los Angeles, which hasn’t hosted a postseason game since the 1985 season, when Eric Dickerson was chewing up yards on the ground and Dieter Brock was adding 50-or-so passing yards per game. The passing game should be a bit more prolific this year than it was more than 30 years ago. But this game, in my eyes, has the greatest potential for upset this weekend. Atlanta hasn’t been great, but Matt Ryan has been around the block a few more times than Jared Goff. The Falcons are beat up a bit, but I think they make this a game.

Tony: The NFC Wildcard matchups are certainly more compelling to me, at least on paper. The Falcons overcame the Super Bowl curse, to make it back to the playoffs (not actually that uncommon–the 2016 Panthers were actually the first Super Bowl losing team to miss the playoffs altogether since the 2008 Patriots, who lost Tom Brady in the first game of the season). But they did so in ugly, ugly fashion–at least offensively. Defensively was a different story–the Falcons actually improved significantly on the defensive side, ranking 9th in yards/game (vs 25th in 2016), 9th in Rushing yards/game (17th), 12th in passing yards/game (28th), and 8th in points/game (27th). All while being a shockingly low 27th (tied) overall in turnovers, with just 16. That could spell trouble for Todd Gurley, Jared Goff and the no-name receiving corps of the Rams. The question this year, though, is if the Falcons offense will show up.

Andy: The defense is definitely on the upswing. And there is a lot of talent on offense too. However — and maybe this had to do with how good it looked last year — but the offense looked strangled quite a bit this year. More likely, I think, is that Steve Sarkisian is simply no Kyle Shanahan when it comes to running an offense. Matt Ryan regressed. The tandem of Freeman and Tevin Coleman was not utilized as well this year. Julio Jones basically had three big games. It just never seemed like they were anywhere near on track for any stretch of time. Add in that Jones, Freeman and center Alex Mack are all beat up heading into the game and, even though I think this game is the most ripe for an upset of the weekend’s slate, I will not be picking said upset to take place.

Tony: Another question mark for the Rams–aside from the youth of their team AND their coaching staff–is the atmosphere in Los Angeles. Despite playing at the Coliseum–which seats over 93,000–the Rams were second to last in terms of home attendance for playoff teams (ahead of the Steelers, inexplicably). The Rams cracked 70,000 fans in just one home game, against the Cardinals – add in that the Rams were only 4-4 at home this year, and being at home for the playoffs might not really be that big of an advantage.

Andy: So, again, I’m not going to pick the upset, but this is a little bit of a coin toss to me. I’ll go Rams 27, Falcons 23.

Tony: One other wildcard…in the…wildcard…the Rams have six All-Pros on their team–but they might be missing one of their most important All-Pros, with kicker Greg “the Leg” Zuerlein out. Can they trust Sam “Kicken'” Ficken? Falcons 27, Rams 22.

Carolina Panthers at New Orleans Saints – Sunday, January 7th, 2018 – 3:40PM kickoff

Andy: The biggest threat of any team playing on Wild Card Weekend to advance beyond next week is the New Orleans Saints, though there’s no guarantee they get past Carolina on Sunday. While conventional wisdom says it’s hard to beat a team three times in a season, I learned by listening to the “Bet the Board” podcast this week that of the 20 teams faced with such a challenge over the years, 13 have done so. That said, the Saints don’t come into this game at full strength. The defense has suffered some injuries, with pass rusher Alex Okafor and safety Kenny Vaccaro among those missing the rest of the season. This is where Drew Brees comes in. The team has transitioned this year away from relying on his arm as much. But if I’m going into a tight playoff situation, there isn’t a QB playing in Wild Card Weekend I’d rather rely on to get me through than Drew.

Tony: The Saints also have possibly the most intriguing 1-2 punch in their backfield in the league, with Mark Ingram and Alvin Kamara–not to mention Michael Thomas. The Saints finally seemed to level things out this year between the offense and defense–but those injuries are a huge concern. The Panthers, on the other hand, seem to have had more ups and downs than a Vegas callgirl–from beating the Patriots to losing to the Bears, then back to beating the Vikings. Cam Newton is the heart and soul of the team–but that can be just as bad of a thing as a good. Especially against the Saints, whom he hasn’t really played well against since 2015.

Andy: Yep, that’s what I like about the Saints this season. Need to run the ball? Ingram or Kamara. Need to pass the ball? Thomas. Need another target? Brees is smart enough to find one. Tricky defense that makes it look like you need to run, then gives you a look that makes you need to pass? Kamara and Ingram combined for 139 catches this season. Kamara actually had more yards as a receiver than as a rusher. Ted Ginn had 53 catches. This offense is as dangerous as it has ever been and it’s more diversified than ever too.

Tony: The one thing that might concern me most about New Orleans on the offensive side is their OL–especially their interior line, which didn’t grade out that well on PFF. When the Panthers beat the Vikings, one of the main reasons for their success was that the Vikings interior line was jumbled, due to the loss of Pat Elflein. If the Saints can’t block the Panthers interior DL, that could start to make things even more interesting.

Andy: Yeah, and while the Saints have MORE weapons than the Panthers do, it’s not like Cam Newton has never been there before. And he does have Greg Olsen. And Christian McCaffery. And Devin Funchess and Jonathan Stewart. Some of these guys are new to the playoffs, and some are perhaps past their prime, but they are all capable of stretching defenses and giving the Saints problems. I suspect the game ends up something like Saints 28, Panthers 20. But it should be a compelling game and the winner will actually be able to give its opponent next week a ballgame too, which is more than can be said for this weekend’s AFC contenders.

Tony: I’ll go with a final score of 31-27 in this one…I’m just not real sure who to pick as the winner. Just to keep things interesting, I guess I’ll go with the Panthers.

2017 AFC Wildcard Playoff Predictions

2017 AFC Wildcard Playoff Predictions

Tennessee Titans at Kansas City Chiefs – Saturday, January 6th, 2018 – 3:35PM kickoff

Tony: This might be the biggest mismatch of the first round of the playoffs. The Chiefs have had stretches of looking unbeatable and stretches of looking incapable, but there wasn’t any point in the season that I looked at the Titans and thought “That’s a playoff team.”

Andy: I suppose if anyone in this mediocre AFC field is going to disrupt the predestined Patriots-Steelers AFC Championship game, it’s going to be the Chiefs. The rest of the field is pretty mediocre in comparison. I will be picking the Chiefs. But your assessment assumes that the unbeatable Chiefs show up. If the incapable Chiefs resurface Saturday, Tennessee has a shot. DeMarco Murray is unlikely to play, giving the superior back, Derrick Henry, a chance to get the lion’s share of the carries against a deficient Kansas City defense. And, while he’s regressed this year, it’s not like Marcus Mariota hasn’t performed on the big stage before.

Tony: The same deficient defense that gave up 13-13-15 in the last three games of the season that mattered? They’re not the best defense in the league, but in Week 15 they held Phillip Rivers to 227-1-3, and Melvin Gordon to just 78 yards rushing–an offensive combination that I think most would rather have today then Mariota-Henry. Meanwhile, the Titans have a tough run defense (like the Chiefs), but the Chiefs can attack through the air with Travis Kelce, Kareem Hunt and Tyreek Hill, who I don’t think the Titans have an answer for. On the Titans side, other than Delanie Walker, I’m not sure I could name the Titans leading receiver.

Andy: Oh, I’m not saying I think the Titans are going to win – maybe not even keep it close. I was just stating that the Chiefs, statistically, have a lacking defense and that Tennessee *could* take advantage of it. That said, I think it’s the Chiefs game to lose.

Tony: I think they win big: Chiefs 27, Titans 13

Andy: Chiefs 30, Titans 17

 

Buffalo Bills at Jacksonville Jaguars – Sunday, January 7th, 2018 – 12:05 PM kickoff

Tony: The main reason I think the Chiefs/Titans matchup is the biggest mismatch of the postseason is more because I’m not willing to say that I think the Jaguars will clean up against the Bills, which seems to be the leading pick. Like the Titans, the Bills never looked like a playoff team this year–particularly with the Nathan Peterman experiment. But the Jaguars are a young team, that has also had its fair share of rough games. Their lack of playoff experience–and lack of a playoff atmosphere (where there will reportedly be a lot of Buffalo fans making the trek to Florida) could make it a more interesting game than most predict.

Andy: I agree, this is easily the worst match-up of the postseason, with one team in because it’s young and talented, but not consistently good yet and another that is in because, by rule, the AFC is required to field six playoff teams. I think this could be an ugly, low-scoring game that puts people to sleep. I’ll probably spend a good chunk of the game working. Jacksonville’s defense should remain great, especially if LeSean McCoy is limited or out. But I’m surprised at the spread in this one, given that both teams have question marks at QB and on offense as a whole.

Tony: The Jaguars defense definitely should win them this game–especially with the presence of veteran All-Pro Calais Campbell. But Blake Bortles alone makes them a hard team to put that much faith in. He was great when he was holding a lead this season, but unlike most seasons, when he excelled in garbage time, he was terrible this season when trailing–so if the Bills can figure out how to jump out to an early lead, it could spell doom for the Jags.

Andy: It could. But how do you figure Buffalo is going to get out to a lead? They won four out of nine games down the stretch coming in. Three of the four wins were against Miami twice and Indianapolis. The pass game is bad. The run game is going to be bad if McCoy can’t play. If I was betting this game, I’d be taking the under rather than betting on the spread.

Tony: Early pick 6 by the Bills defense? They aren’t a great unit, but they did score three defensive touchdowns this year, and Bortles did throw 5 of his 13 interceptions in the last two weeks of the season. And as great as the Jags defense is, they gave up 44 points to the San Francisco 49ers in Week 16, including 130 yards and 3 TDs on the ground, and over 100 yards to the combination of Kyle Juszczyk and George Kittle. Like you with the Titans, I’m not going to go out on a limb and predict a Bills win–I just don’t think it’s the laugher that most outside of Buffalo seem to expect.

 

Andy: Jaguars 16, Bills 3

Tony: I’ve got Jags 17, Bills 13.

 

Thoughts? Comments? Think we’re idiots?  Let us know in the comments below.

NFL Picks 2016: Divisional Weekend

NFL Picks 2016: Divisional Weekend

It’s divisional weekend, the greatest weekend of the NFL football season.

The pretenders, well, most of them anyway, are out. The serious contenders meet up this weekend. It’s usually four of the better games you’ll have the opportunity to watch.

And, for once, Andy has the lead. Terrible at picking games all season, he nailed all four on Wild Card weekend. Will he keep it up? Probably not. So he might as well enjoy the bragging rights while he can.

Here are the standings:

  Wild Card week
Andy 4-0
Vomhof 3-1
Tony 3-1
Maggio 2-2

 

And here are our picks for the Best Week of the Season: (more…)

NFL Picks 2016: Divisional Weekend

NFL Picks 2016: Wild Card Weekend

Hmm. That went fast. Four months and change after the regular season kicked off, here we are facing Wild Card weekend in the NFL. There are a few new faces in the postseason crowd this year. But if you believe our contributors, most of them will be eliminated by the playoff regulars by the end of the weekend.

Here’s how we see the games playing out: (more…)

John Tuvey’s Playoff Fantasy Football Rankings

John Tuvey’s Playoff Fantasy Football Rankings

QUARTERBACKS
*Ratings based on Team QB scoring
1 – Tom Brady, Patriots
2 – Russell Wilson, Seahawks
3 – Ben Roethlisberger, Steelers
4 – Dak Prescott, Cowboys
5 – Matt Ryan, Falcons
6 – Aaron Rodgers, Packers
7 – Eli Manning, Giants
8 – Alex Smith, Chiefs
9 – Matthew Stafford, Lions
10 – Brock Osweiler, Texans
11 – Matt Moore, Dolphins
12 – Matt McGloin, Raiders

RUNNING BACKS
1 – Le’Veon Bell, Steelers
2 – Ezekiel Elliott, Cowboys
3 – LeGarrette Blount, Patriots
4 – Thomas Rawls, Seahawks
5 – Devonta Freeman, Falcons
6 – Dion Lewis, Patriots
7 – Lamar Miller, Texans
8 – Spencer Ware, Chiefs
9 – Ty Montgomery, Packers
10 – Jay Ajayi, Dolphins
11 – Paul Perkins, Giants
12 – Tevin Coleman, Falcons

13 – Alex Collins, Seahawks
14 – James White, Patriots
15 – Zach Zenner, Lions
16 – Latavius Murray, Raiders
17 – Rashad Jennings, Giants
18 – Alfred Blue, Texans
19 – DeAngelo Williams, Steelers
20 – Darren McFadden, Cowboys
21 – CJ Prosise, Seahawks
22 – Charcandrick West, Chiefs
23 – Christine Michael, Packers
24 – Jalen Richard, Raiders

25 – DeAndre Washington, Raiders
26 – Jonathan Grimes, Texans
27 – Alfred Morris, Cowboys
28 – Dwayne Washington, Lions
29 – Aaron Ripkowski, Packers
30 – Kenyon Drake, Dolphins
31 – Damien Williams, Dolphins
32 – Fitzgerald Toussaint, Steelers
33 – Patrick DeMarco, Falcons
34 – Knile Davis, Chiefs
35 – Bobby Rainey, Giants
36 – Joique Bell, Lions

WIDE RECEIVERS
1 – Antonio Brown, Steelers
2 – Julian Edelman, Patriots
3 – Dez Bryant, Cowboys
4 – Odell Beckham Jr., Giants
5 – Julio Jones, Falcons
6 – Doug Baldwin, Seahawks
7 – Jordy Nelson, Packers
8 – Malcolm Mitchell, Patriots
9 – Cole Beasley, Cowboys
10 – Eli Rogers, Steelers
11 – Jermaine Kearse, Seahawks
12 – DeAndre Hopkins, Texans

13 – Tyreek Hill, Chiefs
14 – Davante Adams, Packers
15 – Sterling Shepard, Giants
16 – Chris Hogan, Patriots
17 – Mohamed Sanu, Falcons
18 – Golden Tate, Lions
19 – Terrance Williams, Cowboys
20 – Jarvis Landry, Dolphins
21 – Will Fuller, Texans
22 – Paul Richardson, Seahawks
23 – Michael Floyd, Patriots
24 – Taylor Gabriel, Falcons

25 – Geronimo Allison, Packers
26 – Amari Cooper, Raiders
27 – Sammie Coates, Steelers
28 – Jeremy Maclin, Chiefs
29 – Michael Crabtree, Raiders
30 – Marvin Jones, Lions
31 – Victor Cruz, Giants
32 – DeVante Parker, Dolphins
33 – Seth Roberts, Raiders
34 – Kenny Stills, Dolphins
35 – Anquan Boldin, Lions
36 – Justin Hardy, Falcons

37 – Randall Cobb, Packers
38 – Cobi Hamilton, Steelers
39 – Chris Conley, Chiefs
40 – Tanner McEvoy, Seahawks
41 – Albert Wilson, Chiefs
42 – Brice Butler, Cowboys
43 – Roger Lewis, Giants
44 – Andre Holmes, Raiders
45 – Jakeem Grant, Dolphins
46 – Keith Mumphrey, Texans
47 – TJ Jones, Lions
48 – Wendall Williams, Texans

TIGHT ENDS
1 – Martellus Bennett, Patriots
2 – Jimmy Graham, Seahawks
3 – Jason Witten, Cowboys
4 – Travis Kelce, Chiefs
5 – Ladarius Green, Steelers
6 – CJ Fiedorowicz, Texans
7 – Jared Cook, Packers
8 – Austin Hooper, Falcons
9 – Jesse James, Steelers
10 – Ryan Griffin, Texans
11 – Dion Sims, Dolphins
12 – Will Tye, Giants

13 – Luke Willson, Seahawks
14 – Eric Ebron, Lions
15 – Levine Toilolo, Falcons
16 – Richard Rodgers, Packers
17 – Matt Lengel, Patriots
18 – Jerrell Adams, Giants
19 – Gavin Escobar, Cowboys
20 – Clive Walford, Raiders
21 – Joshua Perkins, Falcons
22 – Stephen Anderson, Texans
23 – David Johnson, Steelers
24 – Mychal Rivera, Raiders

25 – Demitrius Harris, Chiefs
26 – Brandon Williams, Seahawks
27 – Larry Donnell, Giants
28 – MarQuis Gray, Dolphins
29 – Clay Harbor, Lions
30 – Dominique Jones, Dolphins

DEFENSE/SPECIAL TEAMS
1 – New England, Patriots
2 – Seattle Seahawks, Seahawks
3 – Pittsburgh Steelers, Steelers
4 – Atlanta Falcons, Falcons
5 – Dallas Cowboys, Cowboys
6 – New York Giants, Giants
7 – Kansas City, Chiefs
8 – Houston Texans, Texans
9 – Green Bay Packers, Packers
10 – Oakland Raiders, Raiders
11 – Detroit Lions, Lions
12 – Miami Dolphins, Dolphins

PLACEKICKERS
1 – Stephen Gostkowski, Patriots
2 – Steven Haushka, Seahawks
3 – Dan Bailey, Cowboys
4 – Chris Boswell, Steelers
5 – Matt Bryant, Falcons
6 – Nick Novak, Texans
7 – Mason Crosby, Packers
8 – Cairo Santos, Chiefs
9 – Robbie Gould, Giants
10 – Sebastian Janikowski, Raiders
11 – Matt Prater, Lions
12 – Andrew Franks, Dolphins