Last week, Andy got to choose whether he went first or second and third because Tony edged him out in Week 1. This week, he gets to choose again, while hoping not to dig himself a hole that he can’t climb out of, as Tony went up 17-14 with a 9-7 week.
Both picked well at the top, but things got a bit dicey at the bottom of the list, with Andy missing on the Chargers (11th pick) and Jacksonville (13th pick). The only game Tony got wrong in the Alternate picks was his 16th pick of the Cowboys–in fact, in his straight up picks, he went 14-2 for the week (vs 11-5 for Andy).
This week, Andy chose to go second and third again — because sooner or later it will work out for him: (more…)
Last week Andy got to choose where to pick based on winning a virtual coin flip. This week he picked first because his picks sucked.
Well, they weren’t THAT bad. Tony won week one 8-7. Andy decided to go second and third this week.
Tony: Oakland over the NY Jets – This game didn’t start as the highest spread of the week, but has gone from Oakland -10 to Oakland -14 in some books–tells you what people think. Fans in Detroit have to be thinking that the Jets could match their mark for futility this year.
Andy: Not picking first may have backfired. I’m not really sure why I thought Tony would ignore the Raiders/Jets game, but that’s what I was hoping for. Lesson learned. I’m *reasonably* confident in Seattle beating San Francisco, though that OL is putrid. And Carolina *should* be in the clear against Buffalo. But in hindsight, I really wish I had the Raiders.
Tony: Not good that by game 4, we’re already a little unsure here–the Patriots should beat the Saints, but then again, they should have beaten the Chiefs, too.
Andy: Come on Scott Tolzien. I’m a bit less confident here if the Colts start Jacoby Brissett. But even without David Johnson, the Cardinals should have enough in the tank to beat a rebuilding Indy team minus Andrew Luck.
Tony: Baltimore over Cleveland – If you’d asked last week, I would have guessed this would have been a top two pick for sure. But the Browns played better than most expected, and I’m not ready to write home about the Ravens just yet. (more…)
I think the strongest teams in the league this season overall reside in the AFC. But a look at the NFC reveals that there are definitely a handful of teams that on a good day will push the best of the best.
The truth again probably lies somewhere between what I really think and what I came up with at the playoffpredictors site.
I was going to skip the preview this season – somewhere around nine people read the ones we did last year. Previews come from everywhere – it didn’t seem like people were clamoring for more.
Then I came across a site where, in about 10 minutes, I could run through every game on the schedule and the site would keep track of won-loss records, playoff seedings, tiebreakers, etc. So I figured WTF.
I filled it out and I laughed at some of my results. Pittsburgh 15-1? I think they win the division, but I don’t think they’re good enough to run the table to that extent. The bottom three teams in the AFC East (everyone but the Patriots) combining for seven wins? Nah. There’s some bad football going on, particularly in New York, but they won’t be that bad.
Nonetheless, when you set aside the records, or at least look at them with a grain of salt, the rankings came pretty close to what I was thinking I thought. So … WTF. Here are some of my thoughts – hopefully the nine of you who enjoyed these posts last year think it was worthwhile to return.
Explanation: Again, I don’t expect the Steelers to go 15-1. I don’t expect them to win the top seed. I do expect them to win the division and I could see them in a deep competition for the second bye. Baltimore could do a bit better. I’m uncertain about the QB and the run game but I really like John Harbaugh. They’re a wild card contender, as far as I am concerned.
I’ve thought Cincinnati was on the downhill slide for a couple seasons. The offensive line defections, Andrew Whitworth and Kevin Zeitler, will hurt an offense run by a barely good enough QB and Cincy will see the end of the Marvin Lewis era at season’s end. On the north side of Ohio, I think the Browns are finally headed in the right direction. That said, they’re playing a rookie QB and coming off a nearly winless season. Five wins would represent solid improvement.
AFC South
Tennessee 13-3
Houston 8-8
Jacksonville 6-10
Indianapolis 1-15
Explanation:
This is another situation where the records are off a bit, but the order is spot on. I don’t think the Titans are quite ready to hit 13-3. But I do think Marcus Mariota and the smashmouth run game will continue improving, and I think the division is ripe for the taking. Tennessee is the best of the lot, in my eyes. Houston has a great defense, but until the QB situation is settled – and I think Deshaun Watson will eventually be the guy there – they’re going to struggle on offense. Houston may be a game or two better than .500, but this spot feels right. Jacksonville is in a similar, albeit younger spot. I like a lot of the talent the Jags have. I am close to giving up on Blake Bortles. A 6-10 mark could potentially show some improvement, but how the QB develops will be the main point in determining the success or lack thereof in 2017.
The Colts won’t be 1-15 bad – unless Andrew Luck is out for the season. Scott Tolzien is a stiff. But all signs point to Luck coming back. I also think the new GM Chris Ballard is making some good, behind-the-radar moves to make things better there. But he’s got a bit of a mess to clean up. The defense will still be bad and the offense will take a while to get up to full speed with Luck and center Ryan Kelly not yet healthy.
AFC East
New England 14-2
Buffalo 4-12
Miami 2-14
New York Jets 1-15
Explanation:
The records went a bit off the rails here. I do expect some bad football from the bottom of this division, especially from the Jets, where 1-15 may not be off target. I see Miami and Buffalo both as closer to six- to eight-win teams. QB play among all three of these teams is an ongoing issue and there are not enough supporting parts on any of the teams to make up for that lack of a star at the helm.
That said, the Patriots remain the class of this division. In this case, I see 14-2 as very close to spot on. I think the Pats clinch the division by Thanksgiving and take the one seed in the conference.
AFC West
Denver 14-2
Kansas City 11-5
Oakland 10-6
Los Angeles 9-7
Explanation:
As bad as the East is, I think the West is this good. I do not see Denver going 14-2. The QB play won’t be good enough. And it’s possible the defense falls a notch. That said, this is still a top-notch, competitive team that will be right in the mix for the division and an upper seed in the playoffs. My pre-season picks puts the Broncos as the third seed. I can see it.
But Kansas City and, in particular, Oakland, will push Denver all season long. I am a huge fan of Derek Carr. I think Marshawn Lynch disappoints those who think he’ll come back and consistently show “Beast Mode” skills from the past, but he’ll be a threat at the goal line. The Raiders are close. Same with the Chiefs, though they’ll rely more on the defense for now. I am looking forward to the Patrick Mahomes era. I think he could be a really good QB. Soon.
The Chargers continue to have holes on the offensive line and Philip Rivers is aging fast. So, especially in this division, the window is barely open. But there is a crack. And if they can win some of the close ones they lost last season, the San Diego/Los Angeles Chargers will not be an easy win for anyone.
Welcome to our new weekly picks format, Alternative Picks. We’re fashioning this after a game that Andy and I played when we were teenagers, where we “draft” games we want to pick each week. First person chooses one game, the other follows with two games, and then alternate the rest of the way down the list. We wager the standard Trading Places bet per game, and accumulate wins/losses through the year.
Andy won the right to choose first at Virtual Coin Toss and he elected to select the first game. Going forward, the loser of the previous week’s picks will go firs t– in the event of a tie, we will head back for another coin toss.
Andy: Given that it’s the first week and so much changes over the course of an off-season, I wanted to make sure I got the one game I feel is a near certain lock, at least straight up. I think the Browns are heading in the right direction. But I don’t think a rookie QB making his first start is going to lead an improving-but-still-bad team to a win over Pittsburgh. I pick the Steelers. (more…)
While the playoffs have thus far been short on drama, the Super Bowl should at least be entertaining.
Two of the league’s top QBs and high firing offenses will meet in Houston this weekend to determine the landing place for the 2016-17 Lombardi Trophy.
So, who’s going to win? We’ll get there in a moment. First, we need to update the standings – Andy was the only one to miss a game in championship weekend. It was his first miss of the postseason.
Championship
Postseason
Andy
1-1
9-1
Tony
2-0
8-2
John Vomhof
2-0
7-3
Anthony Maggio
2-0
6-4
Will the game live up to the hype? Here’s what our crew of writers thinks: (more…)
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