Bet the Mortgage: Week 11, 2018

by Tony | Nov 18, 2018 | 2018 Season, NFL Gambling

I haven’t gone back to look at last week yet, but if it’s anything like my Alternative Picks, I probably am a bit closer to getting a concerned call from my fictional buddy Guido…

Tony:

$1,000 – New Orleans (-7.5, +105) vs Philadelphia – The Eagles are struggling mightily this year, and the Saints aren’t. If this was in Philly, I’d be hesitant on this one–but in New Orleans, I’m loving the +105 payout.

$1,000 – Atlanta (-3.5, -107) vs Dallas – A matchup  of two teams that always seem to lose when appear to possibly have figured something out, only to win when they appear to have drizzled it down their leg. With the Cowboys coming off a big divisional win, and the Falcons at home after an embarrassing loss to the Browns (not because it was the Browns–because they were never in the game), I’m surprirsed this line has moved towards the middle from 4.5.

$1,000 – Pittsburgh at Jacksonville: Over 47 (-105) – A lot of weeks I don’t like any of the totals–this week, there’s three I like–this one, the Chargers/Broncos over 46.5, and the Vikings/Bears over 44.  I’ll take what seems like the safest bet–look for the Steelers to jump out early, and the Jaguars to score some garbage points late. Which of course means if you’re in Vegas, the prop bet is the Jags score first and build up a 20+ point lead…

$750 – Cincinnati (+245 money line) over Baltimore – Yes, this game is in Baltimore. But it’s Lamar Jackson’s first NFL start.  And there’s a chance that RG3 will see some action. I legit can’t figure out how the moneyline has moved towards the Ravens even more.

Andy:

$1,000 – Carolina (-4, -115) at Detroit – The Lions have quit.

$1,000 – Houston (-3, -117) at Washington – Relying heavily on road teams again, but the Texans are for real and Washington is imploding.

$800 – Arizona (-5, -110) vs Oakland – The Raiders have become this year’s joke team.

$500 – Cincinnati (+245 money line) at Baltimore – So, maybe not really that much of an upset, but the Ravens are favored by a TD. Really? Bengals win outright.

Bet the Mortgage: Week 10, 2018

by Tony & Andy | Nov 12, 2018 | 2018 Season, NFL Gambling

So … oops. This was supposed to go up Friday. Never quite got there – disappointing, because week nine was actually a good one and I was looking forward to bragging rights. Here are the standings:

And here are … here were the bets. I guess you’re going to have to take our word for it…

Andy:

$800 – Cleveland (+6, -110) vs Atlanta – The Browns, despite a 2-6 record, are actually 5-4 against the spread. They seemed to start to figure things out in the second half of last week’s game. And it’s not like Atlanta’s defense is clicking on all cylinders this season. Cleveland will keep this close and might win straight up.

$800 – Jacksonville (+3, -115) at Indianapolis – I know the Jaguars have been a disappointment this season. And I know Andrew Luck has been hot in recent weeks. Sooner or later the Jags are going to figure it out. The defense is too good and I still believe the team overall is better than Indianapolis.

$800 – LA Rams (-9.5, -110 ) vs Seattle – Sure, the Seahawks have won four of six, including their last three on the road. Those wins came against Oakland, Detroit and Arizona. This week they have the angry Rams. LA only won in Seattle by two points, but they’re coming off a tough loss and realize they now need to win in order to keep pace with New Orleans for home-field advantage. I think the defense takes a step up in this game and the Rams win handily.

$300 – Arizona (+1,200 money line) at Kansas City – No, it’s not that I think this is going to happen. But this is a college football line, not a pro football one. You almost never see four-figure money lines in the NFL. So, I’ll ride it. If I lose, I’m not out much. But if I win, it’s a significant boost to my budget.

Tony

$1,000 – New England (-7, +110) over Tennessee – A positive payout on a single touchdown spread for the Pats? The Titans are better than I expected, but I don’t think they are going to be able to score more than maybe 14 on the Pats and, even as a Belichick protégé, Vrabel’s Titans aren’t going to keep the Pats under 24.

$1,000 – LA Chargers (-11, +108) over Oakland – Chargers have a road game in California (which they play at least 8 of per year) against a team that has got to be dangerously close to all out revolt against their head coach.

$1,000 – Arizona vs Kansas City: Over 49.5 (-110) – If I were to pick an underbuster this week, I would have picked the Chiefs before I picked the Steelers—but there’s a chance that there’s two underbusters in the same week.

$500 – Cleveland (money line: +230) over Atlanta – There’s a decent number of interesting money line bets this week, in the +200 to +300 range for payouts—I’m going to grab Cleveland because they’re at home, the Falcons are an up and down team, and…maybe week 2 under the interim regime will improve things some heading into the bye.

Bet the Mortgage: Week 9, 2018

by Tony & Andy | Nov 2, 2018 | 2018 Season, NFL Gambling

Andy followed his good week with … a bad one. And why exactly did he think Arizona and San Francisco would score points? With that bet, he deserves his fate. Tony hit on a couple of +100 bets, so his 2-2 looks pretty good.

Here are the standings after week eight.

And here are the bets:

Andy

$1,000 – Kansas City (-8, -110) at Cleveland – The Browns are actually 5-3 against the spread this season and I think the coaching change ultimately will do the team well. It’s a bit unfortunate for them that the first game under new leadership comes against a Chiefs team that has scored 38, 42, 27and 40 points in going 3-1 on the road so far. One week isn’t going to provide enough time for the Browns to put together enough to keep this one close.

$800 – Houston (+1.5, -110) at Denver – On rare occasion, I’m actually right when I feel like I find a game where the point spread just doesn’t fit. Last week it was when Baltimore, inexplicably, was a favorite at Carolina. This week I’m looking at the Texans as an underdog against Denver and wondering “what up?” The Texans have won five in a row after a 0-3 start. The offense exploded last week, admittedly against a dying Dolphins squad, but still – it was the second-straight double-digit win. The Broncos have lost five of six and just cut the guy they thought might replace Case Keenum as the starting QB in the near future. And they traded long-time WR Demaryius Thomas – to the Texans, who will use the motivated WR to replace the injured Will Fuller. I think the line should be flipped on this one.

$750 – Washington (-1.5, -110) vs Atlanta – I have no doubt I will regret this pick. Washington is among the hardest teams in the league to figure out the last few years. However, this team is 5-2, including winning four of five as an underdog. The defense has been keeping this team relevant, having given up 21 or fewer points in six of seven games. In a season like the current one, that’s impressive. The Falcons got off to a rough start and that’s a bad sign for them, as they played five of their last six at home. They need to steal a couple on the road to stay relevant this season. I’m not sure they have the defense to make that happen.

$400 – Tennessee (+230 money line) at Dallas – I don’t like many of the money lines this week. So, it’s kind of a coin flip. I went here because … do we really believe that trading for Amari Cooper has made Dallas a powerhouse? The line went from -4 to -6.5 in the course of a few days. The result, to me, actually depends more on which Titans team shows up. The Tennessee people expected to see this season is, I think, better than Dallas, which has proven mediocre.

Tony

$1,500 – Kansas City (-10, +110) at Cleveland – Sometimes a team with a new coach will step up and find a way to win an amazing game that they shouldn’t be able to. And sometimes the team fires a coach heading into a game against possibly the best offense in the NFL. Could still get the Chiefs at -8, but…why?

$1,000 – Carolina (-7, +115) vs Tampa Bay – The 7 points is a pretty big number, but for the +115, I’ll take a shot.

$1,000 – Atlanta at Washington: Over 48 (-110) – Don’t really know why, but this seems like a good bet. So does the Chargers/Seahawks at the same number.

$500 – Detroit (+200 money line) at Minnesota – Only way I can’t lose betting on the home team…if the Vikings win, I’m happy.  If they lost, my imaginary sports betting account gets paid.

Alternative Picks: Week 9, 2018

by Andy | Nov 1, 2018 | 2018 Season, NFL Gambling

It was a good week for the chalk. Andy and Tony both hit six of seven picks for a tie.

Here are the standings:

It’s already week nine. Here are the alternative picks.

(more…)

Bet the Mortgage: Week 8, 2018

by Tony & Andy | Oct 25, 2018 | 2018 Season, NFL Gambling

Andy had a good week. Maybe he’s found a secret? He’s basically breaking even. Can he pull ahead? Tony’s plugging along, a little below the break-even slot. They’re still kind of a joke when it comes to “betting the mortgage,” but maybe there is an inkling of competence there?

Here are the standings after week seven.

And the bets: (more…)

Bet the Mortgage: Week 7, 2018

by Andy | Oct 21, 2018 | 2018 Season, NFL Gambling

Win a little, lose a little. Staying even is boring. But it keeps the hypothetical mobsters at bay. We both have all of our fingers, but I’m guessing we’re both getting a little bored, too.

Here are the standings:

And here are the bets:

(more…)