The holiday week, which coincides with a family birthday, has taken its toll on the availability of time this week, so we’ll get the standings updated later. Suffice it to say that betting is a foolish activity and we’ll never be doing it for a living.
Here are our bets for week 16:
Andy:
$1,000 – Dallas (-7, -10) vs Tampa – The Bucs are terrible. And I stacked Prescott, Elliott and Cooper in a DFS tournament I’m in. I’m no Cowboys fan, but … go Dallas.
$1,000 – Green Bay (-3, even) at NY Jets — This game started as a pick ’em. Really? As much as Green Bay has been bad, the Packers are better than the Jets. … I think. Right?
$1,000 – Houston (+2.5, -110) at Philadelphia — I probably should be going the reverse psychology route here, especially after the Ravens win and the Titans near-loss. But the Texans need this to keep in the two seed. I think they knock the Eagles out of the playoff race.
$400 – Cincinnati (+235) at Cleveland — I am squarely on the Cleveland bandwagon. Definitely heading in the right direction. But teams like that slip up sometimes. This in-state rivalry would be a perfect time for that … besides, we need to stop Mayfield, Chubb and the Cleveland defense to win a fantasy league.
Tony:
$2,000 – LA Chargers (-4, -105) over Baltimore – The line opened at 6, and has moved in Baltimore’s favor, despite the fact that the Chargers are at home (which isn’t a great stadium advantage, but at least they didn’t really have to travel) and they’re fighting for the top seed in the AFC.
$2,000 – Chicago (-4.5, -110) over San Francisco – Yes, the Bears are on the road–and they’ve already locked up the division–but they’re still playing for a bye, and they’re just better than San Francisco, with as many 49ers hurt as there are.
$1,000 – Jacksonville at Miami: Under 38.5 – Normally a number this low screams “Take the over!” Not with these two teams playing.
$1,000 – New York Jets (+130 moneyline) over Green Bay – It’s not a sexy pick, but if I have a chance to add some fictional cash to my fictional pants pockets, especially at the expense of the Packers, I’ll take it. The Packers season is over–they might even rest Aaron Rodgers if things start to look bad–and they’re new to playing with nothing on the line (this season), whereas the Jets are used to it. Add in the Packers travel, and they might just mail one in.
Andy hit the big Raiders/Steelers upset in this segment last week, making his 2-2 record look a lot better in the bankroll column. Tony also went 2-2, but he got the wrong games right.
Standings:
Week 14 W/L
Week 14 $
Total W/L
Total $
Bankroll
Andy
2-2
+$1,677
24-31-1
-$2,193
$7,807
Tony
2-2
-$79
25-31
-$3,300
$6,700
Maybe one of these clowns can rip off a hot streak before the season ends. Here goes:
Could Andy be anymore inconsistent? Last week he went 4-0 after two weeks of 1-7. Now he’s 0-4 again. The teeter-tottering is dizzying. Tony also had a rough week, though the Chargers’ big comeback against Pittsburgh saved him from a winless week.
Here are the standings:
Week 13 W/L
Week 13 $
Total W/L
Total $
Bankroll
Andy
0-4
-$4,100
22-29-1
-$3,870
$6,130
Tony
1-3
-$2,450
23-29
-$3,221
$6,779
Andy:
$800 – Cleveland (+2.5, -110) vs Carolina – People aren’t buying into the Browns yet – perhaps understandably so. But they’re playing well of late and I’m on the bandwagon. I can’t figure out why people are buying Carolina right now. The Panthers have been putrid.
$1,000 – L. A. Rams (-3, -110) at Chicago – This number is coming down from a 4.5 opening. Chicago is solid, but has built its resume mostly by beating teams that are either bad or that were struggling when they played. The Rams are a legit contender and I think they show the Bears they are still a year or two away.
$800 – New Orleans at Tampa Bay: Over 55.5 – This number has come down since opening at 57.5. Back in week one, however, these teams combined to put up 88, as the Bucs upset the Saints in the Superdome. This one will be outside but New Orleans has better weapons for countering the move to grass these days. What this comes down to is the Bucs have mostly been good enough to score on anyone and mostly bad enough to let everyone score at will on them.
$500 – Oakland (+550) vs Pittsburgh – Apparently the Raiders really have the Steelers number in recent years. I don’t see this result happening, but Pittsburgh could come out flat after a comeback loss to the Chargers. And maybe the Roethlisberger curse is real.
Tony:
$500 – Saints (-9.5, -110) at Tampa Bay – Bucs suck. Even at home can’t keep up with the Saints.
$500 – Texans (-4.5, -110) vs Indianapolis – The Colts are improved, but enough to travel to Houston and win? Even with the points?
$500 – Minnesota at Seattle: Under 46 (-107) – Couple of solid defenses and offenses that would prefer to run.
$500 – Minnesota (moneyline: +155) at Seattle – Know what happens when you don’t get your bets in on time? You end up betting on your team (which you hate doing) to upset a team with a better record on the road.
Up a little, down a little, up a little, down a little. Andy bounced back from a brutal two week stretch to post a 4-0 mark over Thanksgiving that brought his bankroll back up over the $10,000 starting point. Tony had a rougher weekend, again putting too much faith in Detroit to help contribute to an elusive over, among other misfires.
After hanging out around or even a little above the break-even point, things fell apart for Andy the last two weeks. He’s 1-6-1 in his last eight bets. Both Andy and Tony had rough patches in week 11, though Tony has still kept his bankroll above water. Can they rebound on Thanksgiving weekend?
Week 11 W/L
Week 11 $
Total W/L
Total $
Bankroll
Andy
0-4
-$3,300
18-25-1
-$3,065
$6,935
Tony
2-2
+$230
21-23
+$729
$10,729
Here we go again…
Andy
$800 – Houston (-6, -110) vs Tennessee – I’m officially on the Texans’ bandwagon. Houston is good. And they get a nationally televised Monday nightery in which to prove it. The Titans … who can figure this outfit out? They annihilate New England in week 10, then get annihilated by Indianapolis in week 11… here it says they’re on the wrong side again.
$1,000 – Atlanta at New Orleans: Under 61 (-110) – I’ve come to hate taking the under, but this line feels like an overreaction to the Kansas City/L.A. Monday night game from last week. These teams have good offenses, but they’re also familiar with each other. And it’s on short rest. And the Saints have a solid defense to go along with the high-powered, Drew Brees-led offense. There will be points scored, but not that many.
$1,000 – Cleveland (+3, -110) at Cincinnati – The Bengals have won seven straight in this series, but Cleveland is, simply put, playing better ball right now. Nick Chubb and Baker Mayfield will take advantage of a porous Cincy defense and the Browns will come away with a win straight up.
$500 – Buffalo (+150 money line) vs Jacksonville – What the hell happened to the Jaguars this season? I thought about going Browns here, but the Bills line was slightly higher. Buffalo is bad, but at least playing as though it cares. Jacksonville, on paper, should be able to compete with anyone, but that’s not how it has played out this season. Until they prove it, bet against them.
Tony
$1,000 – Pittsburgh (-3.5, +105) over Denver – Sure, the game is in Denver–but I’m not sure why the line has moved back towards Denver–the Steelers should walk here.
$1,000 – Buffalo (+3, +100) over Jacksonville – This is more of a gut call, but Jacksonville has been terrible this year.
$1,000 – Chicago vs Detroit: Over 43.5 (-108) – Might as well have something going on today’s games, right?
$500 – Arizona (+500 moneyline) over San Diego – I don’t really thing the Cardinals win here (I picked San Diego first over all in our Alternate Picks), but I’ll hedge my bets and take a chance against a Chargers team that historically has played to the level of their competition.
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I guess what I am saying Andy P is that transparency is great, just doubt that it improves the results