Probably not, taking in consideration that these two teams are by far the best teams in the AFC. On top of that, add the fact that you’re watching one of the greatest rivalries in the recent history of the NFL. The last time these guys faced off, Peyton Manning was able to win the game with an epic comeback, pointing straight to his only Super Bowl ring.
And you have a more mature Brady, looking to equal Terry Bradshaw and Joe Montana as the only quarterbacks to capture four rings. This season, Brady and Belichick found the way to fix an offense full of injured players, and changing key pieces for several reasons, several times.
Isn’t this a great opportunity to put some extra spice to the game? I like to think it is, because this is going to be an epic game, as the website Sportsbettingdime.com says.
Last November, was Brady’s opportunity to make his comeback against Manning, recovering from a 24 points difference. But this time it’s at Denver, where the weather and the local fans will do everything to keep a chance to go to a Super Bowl again.
With both quarterbacks under even more of a microscope during the postseason, both Manning and Brady are certainly feeling the pressure–though neither is a stranger to that.
I don´t see a very open game–more rush than pass, no stupid mistakes in the final minutes, and, especially, no big flags on 3rd downs.
So, I visualize the game staying under the 55 points, floating around 45 (in case you’re into over/under wagers) using the rushing power to consume the clock, waiting for a chance to make an important 3rd down conversion and allowing the defense time to rest.
I like Patriots plus the five points. Even if they can’t pull out the win, I’m expecting a late field goal situation deciding the game, no more than that. Let’s see if this prediction can be converted into a successful parlay!
As I mentioned in our picks segment, the divisional playoff round might be my favorite week of football all season. This week we get four games, all of which feature great teams, rivalries or some other reason why it could be compelling football.
Now, based on last week’s results, I’d suggest betting against anything I think is going to happen. I missed three point spread picks (two by two points or less, but still) and three over/under guesses – in keeping with a miserable betting performance during the season.
But the way I see it, that just means there is plenty of room for improvement.
As we ring in the new year and celebrate 2013, it seems like a fitting time to wrap up the standings for our regular season bets and picks.
We had a couple rough weeks toward the end of the season picking games, but week 17 was a solid effort all around. Tony, Anthony Maggio and I wrapped up with 13-3 weeks while Rich nailed 12 of 16. Our season totals ranged from 154 correct to 166. For what it’s worth, that would rank us toward the middle to top end of the ESPN experts, save for Ron Jaworksi, who hit 174.
It also puts us in the upper 20th percentile or so at NFLPickwatch.com, which ranks experts from a number of sites.
Tony had been in quite a tailspin since learning that he had miscalculated the bet results through the season’s first 12 weeks, but he got a much needed boost in week 16. He hit just two of his four bets, but one was a $1,000 hit on the Giants’ +370 moneyline win over Detroit. It didn’t bring him back to even for the season but it got that mark within reach.
Andy on the other hand suffered a number of hard luck losses. His own $500 moneyline bet missed by a point, when Dallas scored a last minute comeback against Washington. His $1,250 bet on the Denver/Houston moneyline also missed by a single point. So instead of a nice, tidy, solid profit for the week, he sunk further into the gambling abyss.
Here’s where we stand heading into the final week of the regular season. When this thing ends, we’ll have to start studying up for next year, when we have to do better than what we’ve done this ridiculously bad gambling season.
Two weeks left—last week saw Andy make a small impact at getting back to positivity with a 2-2 week, while my tailspin to the gutter continued. At this point, the only thing I can say positive about my year at the fake sportsbook is that I’ve gotten game right than Andy—and with the way things have been going, even that might not be the case after this week…
Week 15
Season
Week +/-
Bankroll
Season +/-
Tony
1-3
25-35
– $1,824
$5,548
– $4,452
Andy
2-2
23-34-3
+ $290
$7,123
– $2,877
Without any further adieu, here are this week’s bets:
Getting bets up last second, and there’s been lots up in the air that should impact bets this week–Adrian Peterson and Toby Gerhart in Minnesota, Aaron Rodgers in Green Bay and the Josh McCown/Jay Cutler debate to name a few.
This season has become largely lost since Andy made me start gambling by the rules–I’ve gone from slightly ahead to in a big hole, similar to my life at the blackjack table. The only saving grace is my lead on Andy, despite his being the hotter hand in the sports book.
Week 14
Season
Week +/-
Bankroll
Season +/-
Tony
1-3
24-32
– $1,591
$7,372
– $2,628
Andy
2-1-1
21-32-3
+ $427
$6,833
– $3,167
Andy’s Bets:
Got 2.5 out of four correct last week. Gaining some ground on my brother, who’s been throwing his pretend money around like it’s Monopoly money the last few weeks. Feeling a little lucky right now. What the hell. There aren’t many games I like this time around, but I’m going to find a way to put half my bankroll on the line. Check back next week to see how this one plays out.
$750 – Baltimore (+6, -110) at Detroit – Most of the time this season when I’ve claimed to be confused by a line, I’ve bet my instincts … and gotten the crap kicked out of me. But I’m going to do it again. The Ravens aren’t exactly burning up the league this season, but Detroit has lost three of four and seems to be doing everything in its power to get Jim Schwartz fired by letting Chicago and Green Bay hang in a race they should have been out of weeks ago. I don’t know that Baltimore wins, but I’m guessing Joe Flacco, Torrey Smith and the recently recovered hip dislocatee Dennis Pitta give them a game and keep it within a score.
$1,000 – Philadelphia at Minnesota: (Over 51, -110) – My brother has a rule he generally follows that prevents him from betting for or against our home team, the Vikings. I understand why. We’re both usually wrong. But I’m going against it this week. Why? Because once upon a time, when Minnesota played at the Metrodome, its defense would up its game. Those days are but a memory. Opponents have scored 31, 35, 44, 27 and 20 in five games in Minneapolis. The red-hot Eagles come to town with Xavier Rhodes out and Harrison Smith maybe coming back part-time from an injury. And the Vikes can’t stop the run either. If Philly can get to 35 – and I don’t think that’s a stretch at all – Matt Cassel should be able to take it the rest of the way to the over pretty easily.
$1,000 – Jacksonville (+1, Even) vs Buffalo – Okay, what am I missing here again? Yes, the Jags lost their first eight games. But they’ve won four of their last five, covering the spread in those four wins, as well. Buffalo has lost five of six, failing to cover the spread in each of those five losses. Neither of these teams are any good, but at this late date in the season, I’ll take the one playing like it gives a damn over the one counting down the days until the offseason any day.
$300 – Upset of the Week – Washington (Moneyline +260) at Atlanta – The QB and the coach reportedly haven’t been getting along and the coach decided this week to bench RGIII. Who knows what’s going on in Washington. I had planned to go with a different game here, but this sleepwalking bunch may be awakened by having another voice calling the plays. It’s not like Atlanta’s really much better. This is our Game of the Weak, but Mike Shanahan may have found a way to get a strong performance from his team. Or they’ll continue tanking like dogs. … Much like my bankroll has been doing all season anyway.
Tony’s Bets:
I’ve largely checked out…I need a couple of big hits to get me back into it, or by week 16 I might bet the whole bankroll on one 6-way parlay just to see what might happen.
$1,000 – Kansas City (-5, -108) at Oakland – I shouldn’t be so excited about the Chiefs on the road, but for the most part they’ve been solid all season.
$1,500 – Philadelphia (-6.5, -105) at Minnesota – I really should have hit my upset pick of the Vikings last week, but this week they don’t have either of their top two running backs. With my luck, they’ll come out and dominate–but, at least my team would have played well then. Worst case scenario? Vikings lose, but Eagles don’t cover. If you could bet on that scenario, THAT’s a bet the mortgage scenario.
$750 – Saints/Rams – Over 47.5 (-110) – I’m counting on Drew Brees continuing from his performance last week, when he knocked one of my fantasy teams out of the playoffs.
$500 – Redskins (+220) at Atlanta – I’m not really sure why I get worse odds than Andy on this one–if anything, the Redskins have become an even bigger joke as the week has gone on. But, I suspect that Kirk Cousins will add to the confusion for that team as they look to move forward…
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