We haven’t been dominant so far, but after a 2013 season in which neither of us really seemed to figure things out until the last couple weeks, we’re off to a decent start. Both of us are above 50 percent and ahead in the bankroll – my week three was even pretty solid, a $1,605 profit that nudged me ahead of Tony for the season.
Well, it wasn’t a great week of betting, but considering how wacky the on-field results were and how mediocre our straight-up picks went, I think we can be happy we survived and lived to bet another day.
Both of us went 2-2 in week two. Tony hit his upset which left him slightly up for the week. I missed mine so I was down. Both of us are incrementally up for the season so far. Here’s the standings board.
After a mostly putrid 2013 season of betting, Tony and I actually both start the season ahead after one week. We took completely opposite paths toward getting there – Tony was aggressive out of the gate, laying more than 20 percent of his hypothetical opening bankroll on the line. I took it easy a bit, wagering less than 10 percent. Between us we hit five of eight picks and added a push.
Tony and I have been pretending we know how to beat pointspreads for several seasons now, both online and in Vegas.
Last year we shook it up a bit. Each of us started the season with a hypothetical, mythical $10,000. We then assigned money values to our bets and calculated our winnings and losings throughout the season. We pick three games against the number – either the over/under or the pointspread. We pick one moneyline upset.
It’s not a perfect representation of how it would look if we were in Vegas, other than we both get more wrong than we do right – though Tony kicked some ass the last third of last year, getting enough of his larger bets right to make better than a 50 percent profit for the season.
As a matter of course, I like to provide a year-end wrap-up of our picks and bets. It’s a good reference for the future and it provides a level of accountability.
So … after a pretty decent regular season of straight up picks, things were less stellar in the playoffs. I guess that makes sense, as most of the teams that make the postseason are pretty good (for now – but just wait until the playoff field inevitably expands).
As for the Super Bowl, coin flip my backside. A game that on paper looked like one of the more intriguing match-ups in quite awhile turned out to be a snoozer.
The Seattle Seahawks made all of us at Zoneblitz look like fools by getting a quick lead on the Broncos and then teeing off on Peyton Manning, making the future Hall of Famer look downright ordinary in the first blowout Super Bowl in awhile. I was not at all surprised Seattle won. I was stunned at the ease with which the Seahawks dispatched Denver.
Each of us picked the Broncos in a close game. Each of us was wrong. That gave Tony the postseason win for correctly predicting seven of the 11 outcomes straight up. Anthony Maggio and I both hit six.
Throughout the entire regular season and into the playoffs I was abysmal against the spread this season. I’m going to have to do some reading during the offseason in order to improve on that in 2014. What an embarrassment. After a 27-38-3 debacle during the regular season, I nailed the line just 3 of 11 times during the playoffs, including botching the Super Bowl — switching to Denver after entering the season having picked Seattle to take home the Lombardi Trophy. Disappointing choice.
I saved face a bit going 6-5 in over/under picks during the postseason, but I’d still be getting killed in Vegas if this were anything more than hypothetical.
And so, with that, we’re heading into the post-season. We’ll have some more thoughts on the Hall of Fame class in the days ahead. We’ll also start looking ahead at fantasy football in 2014 and at the draft. Stay tuned.
I’ve enjoyed the playoffs more this season than I have in a long time. That, however, has not improved my point spread gaming.
I was correct in picking Seattle and Denver to win last week, but I picked both losing teams to beat the spread. I was wrong in both cases. The poor performance dropped my playoff record to just 3-7 against the spread and 5-5 in over/under picks.
This week will probably present more of the same. While the majority of people who voted in our poll got the Super Bowl match-up they desired, it sets up a fantastic game that is difficult to project.
We haven’t been dominant so far, but after a 2013 season in which neither of us really seemed to figure things out until the last couple weeks, we’re off to a decent start. Both of us are above 50 percent and ahead in the bankroll – my week three was even pretty solid, a $1,605 profit that nudged me ahead of Tony for the season.
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