Bet the Mortgage: Week 16, 2014 NFL Best Bets

by Tony & Andy | Dec 17, 2014 | NFL Gambling

So at the beginning of the season, Tony proclaimed that he found breaking even boring and said by season’s end he hoped to have either doubled his imaginary bankroll or crapped out completely. Gambling is a funny thing, though, and with two weeks left in the 2014 campaign, here he sits, $300 below the original pretend $10,000 that we started with.

All of this is cute and nice – it’s not terribly frustrating, because again, it’s not real cash. But on the other hand it is a bit maddening, because while we started out well through the first, say, two-thirds of the season. But as we began to play with a bit of mythical casino cash and get more aggressive with the betting, our results have gotten worse.

But that’s how gambling works. Win some, lose some, and as long as you don’t end up with broken legs in the middle of the desert, you’re probably doing alright. So here are the standings. (more…)

Bet the Mortgage: Week 15, 2014 NFL Best Bets

by Tony & Andy | Dec 11, 2014 | NFL Gambling

We’ve started having some real ups and downs with these bets. Good thing we got off to a good start, but the struggles of the last three or four weeks have left Tony digging into his own bankroll and me right on the brink.

Still, we have life. And with just three weeks left in the regular season, it’s time to start ramping up and getting aggressive. After all, who wants to play it safe with a hypothetical bankroll.

Here are the standings:

And here are the bets:

Andy: Well, the Green Bay/Atlanta shootout Monday both helped and hurt me, but the results overall kept me on the good side of even last week. There’s only three weeks left and I’m playing with house money, so it’s time to start getting a little reckless with my pretend bankroll. So here goes:

$2,500 – St. Louis (-4.5, -105) vs Arizona – I don’t like betting on Thursday games, but there’s too much to like here. Arizona is 10-3, but 1-2 in the last three. The Cardinals have not scored more than 18 points since Carson Palmer got hurt. Meanwhile, St. Louis is riding two straight shutouts and has given up 75 points in six games – but that includes three defensive TDs against them. So the defense is riding a streak in which it has given up fewer than 10 points per game. I don’t see Arizona getting into the 20s here, particularly with Andre Ellington out for the year.

$2,500 – Green Bay at Buffalo: Under 50.5 (-110) – Green Bay is hot, but is playing better at home. I definitely think the Packers stay at least warm here. But Buffalo hasn’t played a game that went over 41 since October 26 – that’s been due in part to its good defense and in part to its bad offense. Packers win, probably covering the 4.5 points they’re giving in the process. But Buffalo keeps it close enough to keep the score below 50.5.

$2,500 – Indianapolis (-7.5, +120) vs Houston – I don’t actually love this number, but truthfully there’s not a lot I do like this week. This is a game the Colts should win comfortably. I’m a bit worried about the possibility that Arian Foster has a big game and helps the Texans keep it close – the extra half point is a bit worrisome. But it’s late in the season and it’s time to go big or go home.

$300 – Minnesota (+355 moneyline) at Detroit – There aren’t many moneyline upsets that intrigue me this week. This one is no exception. However, the Vikings defense is playing the pass better. The Lions just don’t seem completely on track yet. And Teddy Bridgewater looks like he might be starting to figure some things out. So … what the hell.

Tony: Well, that sucked. Not only did I lose almost half my bankroll last week, but I pulled the equivalent of sleeping in and missing the 10am kickoff in Vegas–I had my bets ready to go, but forgot to get them in.  So I’m stuck with the late games now.

$1,000 – Seattle (-7.5, -110) vs. San Francisco – I heard some talk on a local radio station about this one–wish I remembered all of the points made. At the end of the day, I think Seattle is better at covering late in the season and against each other–and even though I don’t trust the Seahawks offense, I trust San Francisco as a whole even less.

$1,000 – Philadelphia (-3.5, +105) vs Dallas – Weird game–you can get a +105 payout from either side, depending on if you go -3.5 points or +3 points.  I really have no idea who the smart pick is here–but I’ve been waiting for the wheels to come off Dallas for a while now, and I could use a big night from the Eagles passing game.

$1,000 – Dallas @ Philadelphia: Over 54.5 (-103) – Another one I probably wouldn’t normally bet, but I don’t trust the Bears/Saints to make the over, and I hate betting unders, so I’m stuck here.

$300 – Chicago Bears (+135 moneyline) over New Orleans Saints – Honestly, I don’t see this happening. The Saints are better on the road this year, and the Bears have been dismal at home. And I could use an even bigger game from the Bears passing game. But with limited choices come bets you don’t necessarily like. So let’s roll.

Bet the Mortgage: Week 14, 2014 NFL Best Bets

by Tony & Andy | Dec 3, 2014 | NFL Gambling

It was another rough one in week 13. We combined for an 0-8 mark. So two of the last three weeks have been brutal. We’re still up for the season, but the margins are shrinking some. Gotta get back on a roll or we’ll be back into our own hypothetical pockets rather than playing with hypothetical house money.

Here are the standings:

And here are the picks: (more…)

Bet the Mortgage: Week 13, 2014 NFL Best Bets

by Tony & Andy | Nov 26, 2014 | NFL Gambling

When things went bad for us in the point spread picks last season, it snowballed. One bad week would lead to another and before you knew it, we were scraping the bottom half of our bankrolls with a half a season left.

Week 12 presents a good sign for 2014. Coming off of our worst week of the year we combined to hit five of eight bets and both of us made profits.

I still haven’t recovered from the pounding, but Tony more than made up for his losses. And overall we’re still well into our hypothetical gambling town for profits for the season.

Here are the standings:

(more…)

Bet the Mortgage: Week 12, 2014 NFL Best Bets

by Tony & Andy | Nov 19, 2014 | NFL Gambling

It was probably a bit inevitable. Tony and I had combined to add nearly $17,000 to our hypothetical bankrolls throughout the first 10 weeks of the season, really without any major bad weeks along the way. Sure, we lost a few bucks here and there, but for the most part it’s been full pseed ahead.

In week 11 reality set in.

I was 0-4 and Tony was 1-3, and we collectively gave more than $5,000 hypothetical dollars back to the various sports books where we get our lines. Thankfully we were both playing from ahead, so we’re still in decent shape. We’ll get back on the horse in week 12 and hopefully ride home with more baskets full of pretend cash.

Here are the standings. (more…)

Bet the mortgage: Week 11, 2014 NFL Best Bets

by Tony & Andy | Nov 13, 2014 | NFL Gambling

Well, the momentum slowed down a bit, but with the help of a weird line Tony found, we both managed to make at least enough for a nice hypothetical dinner with our pointspread picks last week.

The line in question came from the Miami/Detroit game, where Tony found Miami a five-point underdog – with a return of +210. Those numbers are typically reserved for moneyline bet, so I’m guessing the line was a typo, but he found it, he gets it. So even though he only hit one of four picks, he scored big on that one – thus a $100 profit for the week. I split mine, blowing a $1,500 chunk on Pittsburgh, but making up for it with reliables in Green Bay and Denver. So I was up $300 for the week.

Here are the standings:

Andy: These are the weeks when it would be dangerous for me to actually be in Las Vegas with a wad of cash. There are a lot of lines I feel good about – and usually when I feel good about lines, it blows up in my face. But this is all hypothetical. So what the hell.

$1,500 – Denver (-10, +105) at St. Louis – I felt pretty good about betting the Broncos last week and I feel pretty much the same here again. The Rams aren’t a bad team, but Denver is built for dry, fast, indoor football. They got a wakeup call in New England a couple weeks back and this team is turning it up a notch. Bad deal for the Rams.

$1,000 – Denver vs St. Louis: Over 51 (-105) – The totals in Denver’s last six games have been: 58, 64, 56, 59, 48 and 61. The only one that wouldn’t have broken this number was the game against the broken Jets. Last week Denver took the first quarter off and still scored 41. This will be another opportunity for Peyton Manning to snub Brock Osweiler’s attempts to get in the game late. St. Louis only has to score about 14 of these points for me to feel fairly comfortable that they’ll break 51.

$750 – Seattle (+1, +105) at Kansas City – This one makes me a bit uncomfortable, but I think Seattle has found itself. I’m a tad concerned by the loss of defensive tackle Brandon Mebane, but Kansas City rarely uses its combination of Jamaal Charles and Knile Davis as effectively as it should. I think this will probably be a low scoring, physical game, but I like the Seahawks to come out ahead.

$400 – Oakland (+470 moneyline) at San Diego – The Raiders aren’t going to lose every game. And the Chargers weren’t playing well heading into the bye. I wouldn’t say I’m 50-50 on this actually happening, but it certainly wouldn’t shock me if Oakland somehow got San Diego to lay an egg.

Tony:

$1,500 – Denver (-10, +105) at St. Louis – If I’m playing the Broncos at this point in the season, I almost want to go to Denver, so at least there’s a chance it’s a cold weather game. Taking on Peyton Manning in a dome, in a non-playoff situation?  That’s suicide, man.

$750 – Green Bay (-7, +120) vs. Philadelphia – So I wasn’t exactly spot on last week, but it’s going to take more than one game to convince me that Mark Sanchez is suddenly a competent NFL quarterback just because he plays for Chip Kelly. True, he couldn’t have asked for much better or a matchup than the Packers swiss cheese defense.

$500 – Detroit at Arizona: Over 41 (-110) – It should be a good game, and while both teams have solid defenses and I don’t think it will be hugely high scoring, I think with these two passing attacks, they SHOULD put the game into the 20’s. Even with former Lion Drew Stanton leading the Cardinals.

$500 – Seattle (Moneyline: +115) at Kansas City – There are a few attractive, low payout upsets this week—Minnesota (+140), New England (+140) are just behind the Seahawks in my book, for likeliness to win.  If I really were in Vegas, and going beyond the four game bet, I would probably even throw a little down on the Raiders (they’re going to win at some point…right?) at +450. But even at this little payout, I’m shocked Seattle isn’t the favorite in Kansas City, or at least that it’s not a pick’em game.

For straight up picks for week 11, click here.