So what I’ve been doing wrong all season is betting on point spreads and money lines and not spending enough time betting over/unders.
Well, it’s obviously not that simple, but I largely got it right in the conference championship games – though I would have gotten the spread wrong on Carolina/Arizona. I really thought the Cardinals were at least going to put up a better fight.
Nonetheless, two big bets ran my season total back into the black, albeit only slightly. Here are the standings:
Well, that went bad in a hurry. Looking at nothing but the scores, it would appear I at least came close to having a winning week, but in reality that’s not true. Kansas City’s five minute drive while down two scores at the end of the Patriots game ensured I had no chance at covering that spread. The Seahawks money line bet only missed by a TD, but Seattle was down 31 at half – there was no point after the first 15 minutes where I felt I would win that one.
Even my draw – the over/under push on the Steelers/Broncos game – did nothing more than show how freakishly good the NFL is at setting point spreads and over/under numbers.
So after a couple good weeks put me ahead for the year, I’m now substantially down again – though still not as bad as Tony, who remains at least temporarily in pretend hiding for his substantially brutal results during the season.
The Wild Card round went much as I expected, with five and six seeds in both conferences proving to be superior to the third- and fourth-seeded division winners.
That meant for a solid round of picks. It didn’t translate to bets, however, as the point spreads in Vegas proved to be as difficult to manipulate as ever.
I did go 2-2, hitting two bets on over/under numbers. They’ve come in handy all season – I haven’t been able to get spreads right, but the numbers have been slightly easier.
So here’s where I stand (Tony, as you may recall, is in hiding, trying to avoid more hypothetical broken bones over losing twice his allotted bankroll for the season).
Starting $$
Wild card record
Wild card $$
Current $$
Andy
$11,568
2-2
– $96
$11,472
The games get a bit tougher this week. I doubt I go undefeated in picks. Bets … who the hell knows. But here goes: (more…)
Tony fell into an even deeper hole when his two big bets didn’t hit last week, so he’s gone into pretend hiding for the offseason as he attempts to avoid having his legs broken by his hypothetical guy.
His rough season came to an end with a loss of more than $20,000.
My bets weren’t exactly stellar throughout the year – more on this in a later post – but a solid finish to the season put me up a little over $1,000 for the season.
With Tony suddenly MIA, I’ll be going solo on the bets throughout the playoffs. Here’s where we stand right now.
Last week
Last week $
Overall
Overall $
Bankroll
Andy
3-1
+ $2,809
32-35-1
+ $2,809
$11,568
Tony
2-2
– $6,548
29-38-1
– $27,343
– $17,343
There are four really interesting games on slate for this weekend. Here’s how I see them playing out:
“No, no sir, I don’t know where Tony is. Sure, sure, give me your number, I’ll have him get … you don’t want to give me your number? You’ll call again? Sorry, you’ll do what to him? Ok. Thanks. I’ll let him know you’re looking for him.”
Where were we again? Oh, yeah, this has gotten interesting.
After depleting his entire hypothetical bankroll, Tony doubled down – and he lost big time, going 0-4 and losing the entire hypothetical bankroll again. I think the imaginary guy on the pretend phone is irritated with him too.
Andy, meanwhile, climbed a few hundred dollars closer to breaking even.
Here’s a breakdown of where we’re at as we head into the last week of this dismal regular season of betting.
It was a contest for about seven days, but week 15 put some separation between Andy and Tony. Andy finally hit all three of his larger bets in week 15, adding more than $4,000 to what had been a fast-dwindling cash pile. Tony, meanwhile, went for broke and got there, actually falling into hypothetical debt for the first time. Can he work his way back?
betting over/unders.
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