So, it’s been a rough beginning to the season. Bet the Mortgage has been a bit of an afterthought at times as we’ve rushed around dealing with real lives. Finally got around to doing the calculations and, yes, the results look like it’s been an afterthought.
But we’re still in the mix. There’s still time to turn this around and make these picks something you’ll want to bring to Vegas and use as your betting guide. Here’s where we are at heading into week six.
Yeah, still on that “moving too fast” train, but … we’ll get it updated this week.
In the meantime:
Andy:
$600 – Denver (-1, -110) at NY Jets – Undoubtedly, this is a trap I regularly fall into. When this game opened, the Jets were favored by a point. I couldn’t figure out, even in New York, why the Broncos weren’t favored. I knew this was going to be one of my bets. Now, usually when I feel that strongly about a game when I first see it, I inevitably am wrong. As someone put it this week, “It’s almost like Vegas knows something we don’t.” But I’m still falling for it. After looking great in week one, the Jets have sucked. The Broncos aren’t great, but I think they are better than the Jets. So, they will win.
$800 – L.A. Rams at Seattle: Over 50 (-110) – This is a reasonably good-sized number, but I think the over/under on the Rams’ points alone starts somewhere around 33. Russell Wilson has a couple weapons back so that should help him some, though his offensive line is going to continue to suck. But they’ll put up enough for the game to reach the over.
$800 – L.A. Rams (-7.5, +100) at Seattle – The Seahawks, however, will not score enough points to make this a touchdown game. Even in Seattle, this will be a comfortable win for the visitor.
$500 – Cleveland (+150 money line) at Baltimore – The Browns keep coming close. The Ravens appear to be pretty solid this year, but I think Cleveland is actually on the brink of being pretty decent too. The defense is for real and the offense has some tools. I think this is the week they get in the win column for the second time.
Tony:
I head to Vegas in a few weeks…I feel that the fact that I’ve been wildly putting up huge bets without checking what I’ve actually won bodes well for my trip, right?
$1,000 – Carolina (-6.5, -105) vs NY Giants – This opened at 7, and has actually come down a bit? The Panthers have a bit of a reputation as not great out of the bye under Ron Rivera, but I believe they won at home with a relatively early bye last year, and that was against a team with playoff aspirations, not the New York Giants. I suppose it might be closer than I think, but…it shouldn’t be.
$1,000 – Arizona (+3, +110) vs San Francisco – This is a bit of a gut shot, as CJ Beathard didn’t look too bad in his season debut last week, but…he’s CJ Beathard.
$1,000 – Cleveland (+3, +105) vs Baltimore – One of these two has to hit, right? Cleveland has the defense to keep them in it, and may have started to realize what they have in Nick Chubb last week.
$500 – Miami (+230 moneyline) over Cincinnati – Yes, Miami was exposed last week by the Patriots–but remember when everyone said the Patriots were still the team to beat in the AFC? You should, it was basically less than a month ago–and in their last two games, they’ve started to show why. The Bengals…they aren’t the Patriots. I mean, they’ve had their head coach for almost as long (can you believe that Marvin Lewis is the second most tenured head coach in the NFL, just three seasons behind Bill Belichick), but one of them is still there because he wins Championships, and the other is there because…the owner isn’t sure where his rolodex is to set up interviews for a new coach? So at a +230, I’ll take a shot.
Our picks are off to a typically terrible start. … Or at least I assume that’s true. We’ll get to that point asap. In the meantime, here are our picks for the week.
Andy
$1,000 – Philadelphia (-7, -110) vs Indianapolis – This will probably be wrong. Carson Wentz will be rusty in his comeback and the Eagles will miss Jay Ajayi. But I’m going with Philly riding the emotions of his return and Corey Clement showing he’s the best RB on the team. Oh, and the Colts aren’t that good.
$600 – Denver (+6, -110) at Baltimore – I do think the Ravens win this game, but I’m not really sure they are a touchdown better than Denver. I’ll take this in a Maryland minute.
$500 – New Orleans at Atlanta (Under 53.5) – This almost always feels like one of those games where the over makes sense, but eight of the last 11 times these teams have played, it’s gone under the number. Of course, that means nothing, but my bets are typically terrible, so my logic might as well be too.
Upset of the week: $500 – Cincinnati (+130 money line) at Carolina – Andy Dalton typically plays better on the road than at home and the Panthers are missing most of their offensive line. The Bengals might actually not be that bad this year, too. This wouldn’t be a huge upset, but there are enough mismatches this week that I wouldn’t touch with a 10-foot pole that this is as good as I want to do.
Tony
$1,000 – Miami (-3, +100) over Oakland – I can’t believe I’m trusting Miami here…well, let’s be fair–I’m not. I’m trusting the Raiders, who generally don’t seem to travel east well anyway, to live up to my predictions for Jon Gruden’s return season. Don’t expect a lot of bets on the Raiders, even with points this season.
$1,000 – Kansas City (-6, -105) over San Francisco – In Kansas City, with the way the Chiefs have looked, I’m surprised this line isn’t a little higher–it opened at 4.5, and I’ll gladly take the online payout of -105 here, as even with a defense that can be leaky, unless Patrick Mahomes starts to fall back to Earth dramatically this week, they should win by at least 9.
$1,000 – Chicago (-6, -102) over Arizona – My only real hesitation here was the fact that it’s in Arizona, but the Cardinals have looked terrible so far this year–it wouldn’t shock me if they start to think about turning to Sam Rosen, given the early generally positive reviews on Baker Mayfield and Sam Darnold–and that might throw this one up in the air a bit. If Khalil Mack keeps it up, they may have no choice but to turn to Rosen. And even though Mitch Trubisky hasn’t looked like a world beater, Jordan Howard and Allen Robinson should be enough to power the Bears to at least a touchdown victory on the road.
Upset of the Week: $500 – LA Chargers (+260 moneyline) at LA Rams – Yes, the Rams have looked good–but they’ve also beaten up on the Raiders and Cardinals. The Chargers are another kind of animal, four deep at WR, two deep at RB, and with a defense that appears solid enough to potentially upset the Rams, who might be looking ahead to Minnesota. I’d maybe take the Chargers and the points, but the payouts aren’t great, so I’ll take the chance at +260.
$800 – Washington (-5.5, -110) vs Indianapolis — Probably a fool’s bet, but I was impressed with Alex Smith’s version of the Redskins last week.
$800 – Los Angeles Chargers (-7.5, -110) at Buffalo — Wait, this line has gone down from -9? Why? Josh Allen? I’m not convinced the Bills are really even trying to win this year.
$500 – Philadelphia (-3, -110) at Tampa Bay — Nobody is taking the Bucs lightly this week. The Eagles defense won’t give up 40-plus.
$500 – Carolina (+225 money line) at Atlanta — I don’t get the love for the Falcons here. They looked hideous in the red zone again in week one and they lost a couple keys off their defense. Panthers could easily take this one.
Tony:
$1,500 – Philadelphia (-3.5, +100) at Tampa Bay — I’m surprised the line hasn’t moved more here, and even more surprised that some of the online books are putting it at +100 for the extra half point.
$1,000 – Los Angeles Rams (-13, -105) vs Arizona — Rams at home with Todd Gurley, facing the team that surrendered the most rushing yards in week 1. The line is trending up–I’m seeing it at -13.5 in some spots (a couple still at 12.5, too), but I’ll give the 13 for the -105 vs -110 payout.
$1,000 – Kansas City @ Pittsburgh: Over 52 (-108) – Yes, it’s a high number for Total Points, but the Steelers can put up points (last week’s 21 against the Browns was an anomaly, given the weather), and the Chiefs defense isn’t great–but their offense is.
$800 – Carolina (+220 money line) at Atlanta – I think Andy made the right call here, and the payout appears to be moving down–I had to scrounge to find the +220 payout.
Wasn’t sure I/we were going to do this segment in 2018, due to incompetence from the past. But as it turns out I’m a degenerate. So here goes. More details later:
Andy:
$750 – Baltimore (-7.5, -110) vs Buffalo – Nathan Peterman, baby. Not sure the Bills are even trying this year.
$500 – Jacksonville (-3, even) at NY Giants – Giants will be better, but the Jags are for real. The defense makes the difference.
$600 – Cincinnati (+2, -110) at Indianapolis – Bengals win this outright.
$500 – Upset: Chicago (+320 moneyline) at Green Bay – I wrestled with this or Kansas City over San Diego. I don’t expect either, but the payoff is better here. Chicago’s defense is for real. I could see them sneaking up on the Pack.
Tony:
Fine, I’ll take a shot, at least see if I finally can make something big out of this…
$1,000 – Jacksonville (-3, +100) over NY Giants – I don’t care how off the charts Saquon Barkley’s combine was, if the Giants can’t score, they can’t win. The Jags are good enough to shut down OBJ while still stacking the box for Saquon.
$1,000 – LA Chargers (-3.5, +100) over Kansas City – Only one sports book I found was paying the +100, but I’ll take it. I think the Chiefs are going to go through some growing pains this year.
$500 – Seattle at Denver: Over 42 (-102) – Neither defense is what it once was. Russell Wilson will still get the Seahawks in the end zone at least a couple of times, and Case Keenum…well, Brandon McManus has a big leg.
$1,000 – Upset: Chicago (+270 moneyline) over Green Bay – Gotta agree with Andy, the payoff on Cincinnati (+110 at best) isn’t there, so let’s go with the big guns–the moneyline is already moving back here. The Bears may have Khalil Mack on a pitch count, but that might actually help him keep the legs fresh enough to harass Aaron Rodgers…will he make it to his game 2 rematch against Anthony Barr and the Vikings?
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I guess what I am saying Andy P is that transparency is great, just doubt that it improves the results