2015 NFL Playoff Preview/Predictions

by | Sep 13, 2015 | 2015 season, I Said, He Said, NFL Playoffs, NFL Random Thoughts

Andy: So I have Indy, Denver, New England and Baltimore winning divisions in the AFC and Seattle, Green Bay, Carolina and Dallas winning in the NFC. I’ll give Arizona, Minnesota, Pittsburgh and Miami wild cards, with Marvin Lewis and Chip Kelly being two guys whose failures to make the playoffs will result in hotseats at the season’s end.

I think there are probably three teams in each conference I see as truly strong contenders for the Super Bowl, but I’ll give Indy and Seattle homefield advantages at this point, the Colts because they have clear sailing through a weak division and the Seahawks because though they are slightly flawed in some areas, including starting two converted defensive linemen on their offensive line, I think they still have the strongest defense in the NFC and you can’t beat their postseason experience from the last few years.

Tony: In the NFL, most years it seems that about half of the teams from the previous season’s playoffs don’t make it back. You’ve really gone out on a limb, predicting that a total of TWO teams from last year (Cincinnati and Detroit) won’t make it back, including a grand total of one new division winner (Baltimore in the AFC North).

Meanwhile, I have a much more respectable 5 new teams in the playoffs, with Indy, New England, Denver and Cincinnati winning the AFC divisions and Kansas City and Miami grabbing the wildcards, and Green Bay, Seattle, Dallas and New Orleans winning the NFC divisions, and Minnesota and Philadelphia grabbing wildcards.

I don’t know if I really believe all of that, but it makes me look better on paper, so I’m sticking to it for now.

Realistically, in the AFC, I’m not sure if I think anyone other than Indianapolis or New England can get to the Super Bowl, although even those teams have flaws—Indianapolis on the offensive line and defense, and New England their terrible knack for cheating at every opportunity they find. (more…)

AFC East Preview

by | Sep 10, 2015 | 2015 season, I Said, He Said, NFL Random Thoughts

Tony: So the New England Patriots have won the AFC East for the last 37 years straight or something like that, afc_eastother than the year that Tom Brady folded his knee in half. His replacement was Matt Cassel, who managed to salvage an 11-5 season, but it wasn’t good enough to beat the also 11-5 Miami Dolphins. This year, Cassel is back in the AFC East, although once again riding the pine—and has to be somewhat frustrated…it’s one thing backing up Brady, it’s another backing up Tyrod Taylor. Still, the Bills defense is pretty strong, they added RB Shady McCoy, TE Charles Clay and headcase/headache Percy Harvin to go with second-year WR Sammy Watkins. In fact, Taylor might be the difference between whether it’s the Bills challenging the Patriots, or the…

Andy: Dolphins? Is that what you were about to say? Yeah, I like what the Bills have done this offseason too, for the most part. But without a QB, it’s going to be hard to beat New England, even if they do miss Brady for one-fourth of the season.

Ryan Tannehill isn’t a superstar, but he’s turned into a pretty solid QB. They went out and got a deep threat in Kenny Stills – though it’s questionable as to whether Tannehill is capable of utilizing the deep downfield passing game — and a short- and medium-range weapon in TE Jordan Cameron. The addition of Ndamukong Suh on defense won’t hurt either – I know you think he’s overrated, but teamed with DE Cameron Wake, that should be a heckuva tandem. (more…)

AFC South Preview

by | Sep 9, 2015 | 2015 season, I Said, He Said, NFL Random Thoughts

Tony: Remember that year in 2012, when the Indianapolis Colts were terrible? And the next year, when the Houston Texans still managed to beat Andrew Luck to win the division? Pepperidge Farm Remembers…afc_south

Those memories might have to keep Texans fans feeling good about their team for a while. I’m not honestly sure what Titans or Jaguars fans will hold on to.

The Colts ran away with the division in 2014, even with “just” an 11-5 record. Andrew Luck surpassed Aaron Rodgers as the best quarterback in the league in many people’s eyes, with 4,761 yards and 40 touchdowns. Sure, he threw 16 picks—but with a collection of Trent Richardson, Ahmad Bradshaw and Dan Herron running the ball, I’m assuming he was often facing defenses that were playing with 11 or 12 defensive backs at a time.

And this year, he should have a running game in Frank Gore. Not to mention that his WR2 and WR3 spots have been upgraded from Reggie Wayne and Hakeem Nicks to Andre Johnson and Phillip Dorset or Donte Moncrief. Gore and Johnson may not be in their primes, but even at the beginning of the tail end of their careers, they are significant offensive threats. If you want to play with 7 defensive backs, Gore will eat that up. If you want to shut down T.Y. Hilton, that should leave Johnson in single coverage—or Dorsett, or Coby Fleener or Dwayne Allen. Pick your poison.

Next up in the division? Oy.

If you want to go just on team quarterbacks…good luck. Running backs? Even better luck.

The Texans should have the edge, especially if Arian Foster can get back healthy sooner rather than later. They also still have JJ Watt, an unknown quantity in Jadeveon Clowney, and they added Vince Wilfork, who if he’s got anything left in the tank, will make their defensive line even more stout. (more…)

AFC North Preview

by | Sep 8, 2015 | 2015 season, I Said, He Said, NFL Random Thoughts

Tony: The AFC North sent three of its teams to the playoffs last season, and despite all the turmoil at quarterback, afc_norththe lowly Browns even managed to finish 7-9. The Steelers won the division at 11-5, although I’m not sure I would have guessed that if you’d asked me on the street—my first thought would have probably been the Bengals, followed by the Ravens. Well, ok, my first thought would have probably been “Why the hell is this random person asking me who won the AFC North while I’m trying to enjoy this delicious Dilly Bar?” THEN I would have thought Bengals, Ravens and Steelers.

Possibly more amazing than the fact that they won the division is HOW they won the division—with offense. Ben Roethlisberger—who I’ve heard still isn’t exactly a “Student of the Game” when it comes to things like reading a defense—threw for just under 5,000 yards, with a 67% completion percentage, and 32 touchdowns—all career highs—and just 9 interceptions. It wasn’t just the passing game, though, as Le’Veon Bell tacked on 1,361 yards rushing and 854 yards receiving on 373 touches. Of course, a little preseason partying will cost him the first two games of 2015. Defensively…well, legendary defensive coordinator Dick LeBeau was basically forced out the door, only to take a job in Tennessee less than a month later.

Will they be able to retain their crown in 2015? (more…)

AFC West Preview

by | Sep 7, 2015 | 2015 season, I Said, He Said, NFL Random Thoughts

Andy: Denver has been dominant in the AFC West the last couple seasons, due largely to all-world performances by afc_westPeyton Manning. I think it’s legit to question whether he’s got enough left in him to carry the Broncos on another playoff run, but I also think it’s fair to question whether the rest of the division has what it needs to overtake them.

Kansas City’s defense is solid, but Alex Smith is a caretaker who fails miserably in any kind of downfield passing game. Philip Rivers is a better QB than Smith, but there are questions on the offensive line and the defense in San Diego. And Oakland, well, they may be a little better than the Raiders of the past decade-and-a-half, but there are still too many holes for them to start seriously talking playoffs.

Tony: Given your recent history, I’m shocked you blame anything in Kansas City on anything other than Andy Reid’s incompetence as a coach—and I’ll grant you, seemingly forgetting that you have Jamaal Charles on the team isn’t a great way to endear yourselves to Chiefs fans.

The concern on Peyton Manning in Denver is valid—there was something definitely “off” with him the second half of last season. And while fantasy pundits everywhere seem to love CJ Anderson (being one of the few supposed “Bellcow” backs), I just don’t know if I buy him producing for a full season the way he did at the end of last year. (more…)

NFC East Preview

by | Sep 6, 2015 | 2015 season, I Said, He Said, NFL Random Thoughts

Andy: There’s no more New York Post back-of-the-sports-page worthy division in football this year than the NFC nfc_eastEast. The Giants lost DE Jason Pierre Paul to a July 4th fireworks mishap. Robert Griffin III thinks he’s the best QB in the NFL, while the Redskins don’t seem to think he’s the best QB on their roster. Chip Kelly is on his 22nd QB in three seasons, putting his faith this season in Sam Bradford, who has missed approximately 77 games in the last two seasons – and now he’s sparring with the media over whether DeMarco Murray was held out of the preseason opener against Indianapolis. And then there’s Dallas – what fantasyland are we living in where Jerry Jones and Co. are the least newsworthy team in the division?

Tony: Let’s not forget about the claims of racism in Philadelphia (which would seem to be completely off base—Kelly appears to just have a disdain for any players that didn’t come through Oregon). And the Redskins’ biggest news of the offseason before deciding to bench RGKnee, was either their desire to hold the folks in the D.C. area hostage for a new stadium to replace the one they built less than 20 year ago or their refusal to consider a name change.

And we’ve left out what ESPN and the other joke media seemed to still want to make the biggest story of the preseason in the NFC East: Tim Tebow and his efforts to make the Eagles as, yes, a third-string QB. I was on the New York Times website this week reading an NFL story, and TWO of the “Related” articles were about him. Newsflash, ESPN – Tebow hasn’t made an NFL roster since 2012.

And, appropriately for this division, we’re on our fourth paragraph, and we really haven’t even mentioned much of anything related to the games on the field. This is still one of the divisions that will matter the least, and of course, will be forced upon the viewing public the most. (more…)