We started writing our Super Bowl Preview on Monday of this past week, but with travel schedules and a general malaise over the game, it took us until Friday to finish it…and today to post it. But, here it is, in all its glory, to preserve our predictions and see who (if anyone) gets bragging rights…
Tony: I forget every year just how enjoyable that first weekend is without football each year. Apparently there is sitll one game to play, but as a Minnesotan, I can’t say I’ve heard much about it
Andy: LOL. Do you even like football? Yeah, I’ve heard more in the last week about how bad Eagles fans are than I have about the game itself. And it’s true, they are neanderthals, by and large. But it’s time to get to the game — if for no other reason than so you can get to further enjoying your offseason away from this game you seem to both love and hate so much.
Tony: I do love football…but a game featuring one fan base that has gone from one most loveable losers (across all sports) to insufferable, entitled doucheclowns (across all sports) in less than a generation, against a fanbase that actually revels in the fact that they are neanderthals…makes it tough to care. Add in that the team I wanted to see in the Super Bowl once again ripped my heart out, AND I apparently have to endure a full week of non-stop local media coverage of it…well, I wish I had tickets to the Carribean.
Andy: At least the Vikings ripped it out fast this year instead of waiting until they had a lead late or a chance at a game-tying field goal … well, nevermind. Yeah, I agree, it’s a bad match-up in terms of which team I would like to see win. So it goes. We have to be professionals here … (snicker, guffaw).
Tony: Screw professionalism…I’ll start being professional when I start getting a paycheck around here. Maybe. In the meantime, I say we keep making our Super Bowl preview about Minnesota. And maybe Jacksonville. I mean, all the northeastern jagoffs can say all they want about how terrible a Vikings-Jaguars Super Bowl would have been for ratings, but does anyone outside of New England or Philadelphia really care about this game? Not like ratings will be down, and I suppose there are plenty of fans that don’t really realize how big of nimrods Eagles fans are that will tune in to hope that the mighty Patriots fail, but that’s got to be the biggest draw to the game, right?
Andy: The hope that the Patriots will fail? Yeah, I imagine that will be among the biggest draws. It’d be a little different if Carson Wentz was still playing. It’d be old guard vs new guard, etc. Can the young guy come in and overtake the old guy. But that’s out the window. I suspect the same alure isn’t there with Nick Foles at QB. I heard someone on the radio the other day say the Eagles are probably better than New England at every position other than QB. Do you buy that?
Tony: Better than? No. Equal to? Maybe. The first position that argument falls apart is TE, if Rob Gronkowski plays. I like Zach Ertz, and would probably rather have him on my team (fantasy and real life), but Gronk is the better player in a single game, as long as he isn’t trying to injure the other teams DBs. Outside of that, they’re fairly equal at RB (both have a stable of ok backs, not a great one), and slightly above average WR. I probably give the edge to the Eagles on both lines. As for linebacking and defensive secondary…not sure I could name anyone on either team, to be honest.
Andy: I would guess the guy was grouping TEs and WRs into a receiver category, but yeah, you could be right. Still, Ertz, on a good day, is about as close as you are going to get to Gronk as anyone else in the league other than maybe Travis Kelce. At RB, I think Dion Lewis and Rex Burkhead are fine, but Jay Ajayi has more breakaway ability and I think LeGarrette Blount is a better bruiser than what the Pats throw out there. I do think the Eagles’ defense as a whole is better than New England’s is, though the Patriots, once again, have managed to figure out how to be competitive on that side of the ball most of the season after looking the first couple weeks like warmed over dog crap.
Tony: You do have to wonder a little bit as well about the Patriots coaching staff, with Josh McDaniels heading to Indianapolis and Matt Patricia heading to Detroit, will there hearts be in it? It sounds like crazy speculation, but we’ve seen time and time again coordinators who are clearly on their way out seemingly drop the ball at big times like these. Kyle Shannahan and Pat Shurmur being two recent examples.
At the same time, the Patriots have two things going for them that the Eagles can’t even get close to approaching–Tom Brady and Bill Belichick. Despite protests from some Eagles fans, who will probably grunt to disagree while picking their knuckles up off the ground just long enough to hurl a beer at anyone who says otherwise, Nick Foles isn’t even worthy of being the guy that lets the air out of the ball for Brady, and Belichick doesn’t even need to break out his sleeveless sweatshirt to coach circles around Doug Pederson’s frat visor.
Andy: Yep, I think we’re on the same page here. Whether they are or aren’t, Philadelphia could be 10 times better than New England at every other position on the field and on the sideline. Brady and Belichick are equilizers. And I have no worries about their coordinators, either. Those guys know the score. They know they can take on their new teams starting in about five days. There’s another Lombardi at stake, an ever-increasing legacy for this team. The Patriots’ goal here is greater than beating the Eagles. It’s also cementing its place as the greatest dynasty of the salary cap era, one of the greatest NFL dynasties of all time — perhaps the greatest — and, yes, as one of the greatest sports dynasties in all of professional sports history. Like them or not, think they cheated a couple times to get here or not, there aren’t many teams in the history of sport who can match this run. I think it continues. Patriots 27, Eagles 19.
Tony: I actually don’t think they need to cement their place as the greatest dynasty of all time–I think that’s already done. We’re talking about a team that has made 8 Super Bowl appearances in 16 seasons, and already have won 5 of them. The only thing another win does is put them that much further ahead of any other team possibly reaching them…and the only other team in any sport that could have a chance right now would probably be the Golden State Warriors, who would probably be disqualified from reaching anywhere near the Patriots plateau unless they lose Kevin Durant, developed some more in house talent, and kept the winning ways going for another 10 years.
I actually think the more interesting stories if this Super Bowl might be 1) can the Patriots finally score in the first quarter of a Super Bowl under Belichick, and 2) can they win a Super Bowl by more than 6 points for the first time under Belichick. If they can’t do #1, I suspect they will struggle to do #2–they might even struggle to win. But if they can pull off #1, I think they walk away with it easily. And personally, I think they do–I think the Patriots win 31-13, and heaven help people in the streets of Minneapolis when whatever Eagles fans made it to town leave the building.
Well, another week, another split for Andy and I–we both went 1-1 in the AFC (who would have thought the Patriots could outlast that pesky Titans squad, eh?), and we each got a different one wrong in the NFC–Andy missing with his pick of the Falcons, while I missed on the game that I was hoping I would miss. We’ll jump straight into this Sunday’s big match ups.
Jacksonville Jaguars at New England Patriots – Sunday, January 21st, 2018 – 1:05PM kickoff
Tony: Conference Championship Sunday will start with the match up everyone expected in the AFC, the New England Patriots hosting the Jacksonville Jaguars. I mean, you all picked Jacksonville to kick three kinds of dog crap out of Pittsburgh, right? And don’t let the final score (45-42) trick you–the game wasn’t that close. Of course, there is one concerning thing for Jaguars fans about that score–the fact that their 2nd ranked defense gave up 42 points at all. The Steelers are a good team, but the Patriots are better.
Andy: I wouldn’t be too hard on the Jaguars’ defense. Jacksonville got off to a quick start and, for the majority of the game, never led by fewer than two scores. Just like in the Vikings game, the winner was going up against a potentially Hall of Fame caliber QB who wasn’t going to shrivel up in a ball and quit. And the Jaguars offense, when needed, showed up and made plays — I did not think there was any chance the Jags won a shootout, but I was wrong.
Now, they do need to regroup a bit. The Steelers will throw out a clunker every now and again and they were minus Ryan Shazier, which left them vulnerable to the run the last several weeks. The Patriots aren’t likely to do so. New England, I believe, is on another “us against the world” journey following reports if internal dissension. This will be a much tougher nut for the Cats to crack.
Tony: Like many, I didn’t give the Jaguars much of a chance against the Steelers. And like many, I’m not giving them much of a chance against the Patriots. To say it couldn’t happen, though, is folly. The Steelers were third in passing offense, and third in overall offense. The Patriots had the top ranked overall offense in the NFL, but they were led by their passing game (2nd overall, 276.1 yards per game)–so it’s not like the Patriots offense is significantly superior to the one the Jags just faced. The Jags had the best passing defense in the league, at just 169.9 yards per game, although they were 21st against the run (a stat that moved up with the acquisition of Marcell Dareus). While it seems unlikely that the Jags will completely shut down Tom Brady, they can undoubtedly cause him some problems, and/or force the Pats to focus on their run game, not something that they are known for having the patience of.
On the flip side, the Patriots have the 20th ranked run defense, and 30th ranked pass defense–facts that should have Leonard Fournette licking his chops, as long as his ankle is healthy. And for all of his detractors, Blake Bortles played exactly like they will need him to against the Patriots–not huge yardage, but moving the ball well when needed, and putting them in a position to score on the ground.
Andy: While all the statistics say the Jags have a shot and this could be a good game, there are a couple factors that say otherwise: Tom Brady is mountains better than Blake Bortles. Bill Belichick is more experienced, established and, at least at this point, better than Doug Marrone. And the Patriots have been winning games like these for a decade-and-a-half. The Jags … they’ve been mostly irrelevant during that timeframe. Jacksonville is back — make no mistake — they will be in games like this for several years to come. But New England wins this one, 30-13.
Tony: There are all kinds of factors that say the Patriots should clean up this game rather easily–just like there were factors that pointed to the Jaguars getting killed by the Steelers. I don’t think that the Patriots will make the biggest mistake that I suspect the Steelers made, which is looking past the Jaguars–but I do think that the Jags will give them a game. I’ve got the Patriots winning 20-10.
Minnesota Vikings at Philadelphia Eagles – Sunday, January 21st, 2018 – 4:40PM kickoff
Tony: On the NFC side, the Minnesota Vikings will travel to Philadelphia to face the Eagles after their stunning, last second victory over the New Orleans Saints. As a Vikings fan, my biggest fears right now are 1) a let down after the huge comeback win, 2) a misguided belief that the Vikings are “destined” to play in their home Super Bowl leading to over confidence, and 3) whether or not Andrew Sendejo will be out of concussion protocol (which I never would have guessed would have been a concern).
Andy: I think Mike Zimmer is a pretty good coach and he has plenty of ammunition on his players to make sure they get focused on Philadelphia. Namely, he can play off of how they gave up a 17-0 halftime lead. So I’m not too worried about losing because they suddenly think they are a team of destiny.
What does worry me a bit is that in the Eagles game against Atlanta it looked like Philly had found a way to use Nick Foles as a strength, or at least as a neutral figure, while avoiding his deficiencies. That, coupled with another strong defense, do make the Eagles a threat that for a bit it looked like they weren’t going to be. I suspect neither team will get off to a 17 point lead this week and, if one of the teams does, I feel equally confident that there will not be a huge comeback, as nobody in this game is as equipped as Drew Brees to make that kind of rally happen.
Tony: Nick Foles isn’t as bad as the reputation that he has had the last 2 months, but this is the guy who was benched in his last year in St. Louis in favor of…Case Keenum. On the plus side, I believe the Eagles really need the run game to take the pressure off him–and while they only managed 25-78 against the Falcons, they might struggle to get even that much against the Vikings. And while the Falcons defense is pretty solid, I’m not sure that Foles can manage 23/30 for 246 against the Vikings either.
What may be the most interesting match up of the game will actually be the Vikings offense against the Eagles defense–across the lines especially. Fletcher Cox in particular will be a tough load for the Vikings OL to handle, but if the Vikings can manage the same 88 yards on the ground that the Falcons got, I think the Vikings will be in decent shape.
Andy: I don’t think by saying Nick Foles is unlikely to replicate what Drew Brees did that I’m saying he is a bad QB. Brees is one of the best and he has great weapons around him. Foles is a solid backup QB. But he doesn’t have skillset as Brees and the surrounding talent is less explosive. So Philly has to stay close or get ahead early, that’s all.
I do agree with the last part. If the Vikings can’t handle the d-line, it’s going to be a long day. It might be anyway. I don’t expect a lot of scoring in this game. There could be a lot of punting, running on third down and field-positioning in this one.
Tony: Ultimately, while my confidence in the Vikings against the Saints seemed to dwindle as the week went on–right now, as I dig into the game against the Eagles, my confidence seems to be increasing–and as a Vikings fan, that scares me. Of course, I’ve avoided picking the Vikings all season long, something I continued last week in picking the Saints. So this week, I’m going to once again hope I’m wrong, and pick the Eagles gutting out a narrow victory, 17-16.
Andy: I know you’re superstitious about the Vikings. And I also try to avoid getting too amped up, knowing the history. But this team warrants your confidence. They just have a bit of a different feel this season, a more resilient feel. That’s a bit nebulous, I know, but I’ve felt this way from about mid-season. If the Eagles were coming into this game with Carson Wentz, I would definitely look at it differently. That’s not a knock on Foles as much as it is a credit to Wentz — the Eagles, at times, looked almost unbeatable when he was playing. And the team rallied around him. With Foles, this game is a toss-up. I’ll get specific here as the Vikings continue their “conquering demons” tour. Minnesota will be up by seven in the waning minutes. Foles will lead a drive deep into Vikings territory. On, let’s say, fourth-and-four from the six, Foles will drop back and pass to Jay Ajayi running parallel to the end zone. At the last second, Xavier Rhodes, who will be covering Alshon Jeffery, will break on the route, hitting Ajayi at the same time the ball arrives, knocking it to the turf and preserving the game for Minnesota. Vikings 17, Eagles 10.
Tennessee Titans at New England Patriots – Saturday, January 13th, 2018 – 7:15PM kickoff
Tony: On the AFC side of the equation, it’s two games that most people think are forgone conclusions. On Saturday evening, possibly the biggest laugher of the weekend will happen, when the Patriots take on the Titans, who came back to upset the Chiefs. The only way the Titans have a chance in this one is if the discord in New England isn’t only real, it’s worse than anyone imagined. That, or a freak injury to Tom Brady that even TB12 can’t overcome.
Andy: Yeah, put me on the same side of the people who say this won’t be much of a game. It’s basically a tuneup for the Patriots. They’re getting better. But they’re a ways off. Brady is the main reason. A little stat, courtesy of NFL Communications: This game pits the biggest age difference between starting QBs in playoff history, beating out the 1991 match-up between Kansas City’s Steve DeBerg and the Raiders’ Todd Marinovich. There are 16 years and a few months between Brady and Marcus Mariota. In the previous four highest age-difference games, the elder has beaten the youth each time. Put that in your pipe and smoke it.
Tony: First off, Todd Marinovich played in a playoff game? Secondly…I’m guessing that may have made its way to his pipe. And lastly…have I mentioned lately that the Patriots really need to bring the old Pat Patriot helmets & red jerseys back from mothballs?
Anyway…I suspect the only way the game stays at all interesting is if the Pats come out cold from the week off, and the Titans manage to put together a ground game to hold on to the ball. For at least 43 minutes of game time. I say Patriots 34, Titans 13.
Andy: I think you’re giving Tennessee too much credit. I don’t think it will be that close. The Titans started last week looking like they were more than happy to call it a season and say “we made the playoffs, isn’t this a great building point.” The only reason they stayed in that game was abysmal coaching by Kansas City, which, stunningly, forgot to involve Kareem Hunt in the game. That won’t happen with Bill Belichick. If running the ball is what it takes, he’ll do it. And he may take this as an opportunity to show the national media how unified his troops are (even though I do think there is a solid chance he retires at season’s end). This has a chance to be one of the most lopsided playoff games in history. Patriots 47, Titans 9.
Jacksonville Jaguars at Pittsburgh Steelers – Sunday, January 14th, 2018 – 12:05PM kickoff
Andy: The other AFC game is also seen by many as a mismatch. I’m not so sure. Since Ryan Shazier got hurt, Pittsburgh has been vulnerable to the run. And the Jaguars do have Leonard Fournette, who repeatedly gashed the Steelers earlier this season. I’m not suggesting Jacksonville wins in a blowout — far from it. I suspect the game plan will call for ball control and minimizing Blake Bortles rather than for scoring 50. But I do think the Jags make a contest out of this game.
Tony: The Jags also have that swarming defense, which could make life miserable for the Killer B’s–Ben, Bell and Brown. With Antonio Brown coming back from a serious calf injury (and battling some sort of illness at practice on Friday), the last thing they need is to face a secondary combination that ranks among the best in the league. Throw in an offensive line that didn’t grade out well as a unit (at least on ProFootballFocus.com), and maybe the Jaguars do have a fighting chance.
Tony: Of course, the Steelers do have the advantage of home field–not to mention plenty of recent playoff experience to fall back on, versus the Jaguars and their one ugly game against the Bills last week. And something tells me that the Steelers would like some payback from that embarrasing 30-9 beat down the Jaguars laid down in Pittsburgh in Week 5.
Andy: At a minimum, the Steelers won’t take the Jaguars lightly after that big week five loss. I do think Pittsburgh wins. They have playoff experience and that does mean something. But this game will be tighter than expected. I’ll go Steelers 20, Jaguars 16.
Tony: The weather in Pittsburgh is supposed to be plenty cold as well–not ideal conditions for Jacksonville. I expect it will be closer in score than it may actually feel, with Blake Bortles possibly adding some of his patented garbage time points. Pittsburgh 23, Jaguars 17.
Between our AFC Wildcard and NFC Wildcard predictions last week, Andy and I both managed to split the games 2-2–although his stabs in the dark for scores were slightly better than mine.
We’re back again this week to preview the Divisional match ups, starting with the NFC:
Atlanta Falcons at Philadelphia Eagles – Saturday, January 13th, 2018 – 3:35PM kickoff
Andy: About six weeks ago I would not have expected this game to happen. The Eagles were rolling everyone and the Falcons were sleepwalking through the first two-thirds of the season. But then Carson Wentz got hurt and Atlanta went 5-2 to finish the season, with both losses coming to the teams playing in the NFC’s Sunday game. I have some nagging doubts that I’m being rope-a-doped into my prediction for this one — that all of a sudden the Nick Foles of 2013 with the 27-to-2 TD-to-INT ratio is going to show up and take Phillly on a run. But that’s too much of a story book story line to really come true. Isn’t it?
Tony: The bigger of the surprises to me six weeks ago may have been that the Falcons were in the playoffs at all–this is a team that has seemingly struggled all year to play good football, much less consistent football–yet they pretty much whipped the Rams last weekend. And did so with the offense still not really firing on all cylinders–Devonta Freeman only had 66 yards and a touchdown, and Julio Jones 94 yards and a touchdown. If you’d told me those stats pregame, I would have pegged it as a field goal type game, not a Falcons double up.
Andy: I think we’re both saying the same thing, at least about the Falcons. This team appeared to be on auto-pilot most of the season. On the Philadelphia side, you almost have to feel sorry for their fans … almost … well, okay, not quite. Not really at all. But they were getting excited about a team that appeared dominant when Carson Wentz was healthy, only to see Foles come and, basically, sleepwalk through the last few games. I do think Atlanta roles in this one. That’s for all the reasons we’ve already mentioned and, also, because “Nature Boy” Ric Flair says the Eagles are going to lose.
Tony: Well, if Nature Boy says it, it must be true. I’m not as convinced as many that that the Falcons will walk all over the Eagles, just because Carson Wentz isn’t there. The Falcons are an indoor team, from the south–they haven’t had a late season, outdoors, colder weather game since 2014 (a Monday night loss in Green Bay in early December, 33 degrees at game time), and hasn’t won in those conditions since an overtime win in Seattle in 2010 (a game that was actually 45 degrees). Weather for Saturday? The temps are supposed to drop again, after a warm up this week, which could make for interesting playing conditions.
Andy: I don’t think it’s going to be an easy win for the Falcons. The Eagles defense is pretty solid. And Atlanta still isn’t playing anywhere near as fluidly on offense as they did last season under the watchful eye of Kyle Shanahan. My problem with Philadelphia is that since Wentz went down, the offense has been just plain bad. The Falcons’ up-and-coming defense will see to making sure that continues. Atlanta 20 Philadelphia 10.
Tony: Whoever wins, I don’t think it will be a double digit margin of victory. Two solid defenses, less than ideal weather conditions, and two offenses that have not been in stride. I’ll go out seemingly on a limb and call it Philadelphia 20, Atlanta 17. With the weather, I’ll give the Eagles ability to grind it out on the ground the key to the victory.
Andy: In the immortal words of our president, “Wrong. Wrong.”
New Orleans Saints at Minnesota Vikings – Sunday, January 14th, 2018 – 3:40PM kickoff
Tony: In the other NFC game, the Minnesota Vikings seek revenge for the 2009 NFC Championship Game, aka Bountygate. Speaking of which, I heard a funny thing last week during the Saints victory over the Panthers–apparently Drew Brees was hit a little late on a play, and the crowd sounded none to pleased. How ironic.
This time around, the Vikings host the Saints, and instead of featuring a geriatric Quarterback they lulled out his 4th retirement, they feature a record setting defense that is ranked top in the league for yardage allowed and points allowed–which may make for a long afternoon for Drew Brees.
Andy: I liked a post I read this week about how Vikings fans are sort of walking around like abused puppies this week, hoping for the win but protecting themselves from another brutal loss. The nice thing for them heading into a game against New Orleans this time, besides home field, is they are the ones with the top-notch defense. The Saints have improved immensely throughout the season, but Minnesota’s among the league’s elite. And Mike Zimmer has put the kibosh on some of the league’s best QBs the last two seasons. Drew Brees won’t see much he hasn’t seen before, but he’s still going to face a brutal pass rush, a shutdown corner and some of the best schemes around. The question becomes can Case Keenum keep it up? Can he put up the offense necessary to complement the Vikings’ best defense since the mid-1970s. I cautiously think he can.
Tony: So you’re asking if Case Keenum and his big balls can keep it up? I’m not sure if it’s that I’m hanging out in new places online this year, or what, but I’ve actually felt an electricity around the Vikings that I don’t remember from 2009 or 1998–maybe I’m just paying more attention to it, but I’ve heard more people in the last two weeks seemingly talk about it being the Vikings destiny to make the Super Bowl that you wonder if they realize the team has a couple of tough games to win first. As you mentioned, the defense isn’t really the question, for the Vikings–it’s the offense. Not just Keenum, either–will the line hold up, is Kyle Rudolph finally healthy again, and can Stefon Diggs and Adam Thielen get back to making the big plays, which seemed to disappear the last few weeks of the season. On the positive side, while the Saints defense improved this year, they are a bit beat up.
Andy: Yeah, one of the things that concerns me about the Vikings is they haven’t really been tested in a difficult game since they lost to Carolina. The last three games were pretty much against teams who had shut down. The Saints were in playoff mode right up until the last game. That could either help New Orleans stay sharp or they could suffer from a bit of a burnout effect. I think anyone who is talking about the Vikings as a team of destiny is begging to be let down … or they weren’t alive for 75, 87, 98, 09, etc. That said, I do think Minnesota does just enough to squeek by in the most interesting game of the best weekend of the season. In spite of Kai Forbath, Vikings 20, Saints 17.
Tony: Yeah, I’m by no means thinking destiny. In fact, in true Viking fan form, I’ll pick the Saints–you just brought up possibly the biggest achilles heal on the Vikings team, Kai Forbath. Saints 21, Vikings 20. I heard Blair Walsh might be looking for a job this spring…
Atlanta Falcons at Los Angeles Rams – Saturday, January 6th, 2018 – 7:15PM kickoff
Andy: The NFC games are a bit more interesting to me than the AFC games this weekend. That starts with tonight’s game, with a couple of explosive offensive teams matching up in Los Angeles, which hasn’t hosted a postseason game since the 1985 season, when Eric Dickerson was chewing up yards on the ground and Dieter Brock was adding 50-or-so passing yards per game. The passing game should be a bit more prolific this year than it was more than 30 years ago. But this game, in my eyes, has the greatest potential for upset this weekend. Atlanta hasn’t been great, but Matt Ryan has been around the block a few more times than Jared Goff. The Falcons are beat up a bit, but I think they make this a game.
Tony: The NFC Wildcard matchups are certainly more compelling to me, at least on paper. The Falcons overcame the Super Bowl curse, to make it back to the playoffs (not actually that uncommon–the 2016 Panthers were actually the first Super Bowl losing team to miss the playoffs altogether since the 2008 Patriots, who lost Tom Brady in the first game of the season). But they did so in ugly, ugly fashion–at least offensively. Defensively was a different story–the Falcons actually improved significantly on the defensive side, ranking 9th in yards/game (vs 25th in 2016), 9th in Rushing yards/game (17th), 12th in passing yards/game (28th), and 8th in points/game (27th). All while being a shockingly low 27th (tied) overall in turnovers, with just 16. That could spell trouble for Todd Gurley, Jared Goff and the no-name receiving corps of the Rams. The question this year, though, is if the Falcons offense will show up.
Andy: The defense is definitely on the upswing. And there is a lot of talent on offense too. However — and maybe this had to do with how good it looked last year — but the offense looked strangled quite a bit this year. More likely, I think, is that Steve Sarkisian is simply no Kyle Shanahan when it comes to running an offense. Matt Ryan regressed. The tandem of Freeman and Tevin Coleman was not utilized as well this year. Julio Jones basically had three big games. It just never seemed like they were anywhere near on track for any stretch of time. Add in that Jones, Freeman and center Alex Mack are all beat up heading into the game and, even though I think this game is the most ripe for an upset of the weekend’s slate, I will not be picking said upset to take place.
Tony: Another question mark for the Rams–aside from the youth of their team AND their coaching staff–is the atmosphere in Los Angeles. Despite playing at the Coliseum–which seats over 93,000–the Rams were second to last in terms of home attendance for playoff teams (ahead of the Steelers, inexplicably). The Rams cracked 70,000 fans in just one home game, against the Cardinals – add in that the Rams were only 4-4 at home this year, and being at home for the playoffs might not really be that big of an advantage.
Andy: So, again, I’m not going to pick the upset, but this is a little bit of a coin toss to me. I’ll go Rams 27, Falcons 23.
Tony: One other wildcard…in the…wildcard…the Rams have six All-Pros on their team–but they might be missing one of their most important All-Pros, with kicker Greg “the Leg” Zuerlein out. Can they trust Sam “Kicken'” Ficken? Falcons 27, Rams 22.
Carolina Panthers at New Orleans Saints – Sunday, January 7th, 2018 – 3:40PM kickoff
Andy: The biggest threat of any team playing on Wild Card Weekend to advance beyond next week is the New Orleans Saints, though there’s no guarantee they get past Carolina on Sunday. While conventional wisdom says it’s hard to beat a team three times in a season, I learned by listening to the “Bet the Board” podcast this week that of the 20 teams faced with such a challenge over the years, 13 have done so. That said, the Saints don’t come into this game at full strength. The defense has suffered some injuries, with pass rusher Alex Okafor and safety Kenny Vaccaro among those missing the rest of the season. This is where Drew Brees comes in. The team has transitioned this year away from relying on his arm as much. But if I’m going into a tight playoff situation, there isn’t a QB playing in Wild Card Weekend I’d rather rely on to get me through than Drew.
Tony: The Saints also have possibly the most intriguing 1-2 punch in their backfield in the league, with Mark Ingram and Alvin Kamara–not to mention Michael Thomas. The Saints finally seemed to level things out this year between the offense and defense–but those injuries are a huge concern. The Panthers, on the other hand, seem to have had more ups and downs than a Vegas callgirl–from beating the Patriots to losing to the Bears, then back to beating the Vikings. Cam Newton is the heart and soul of the team–but that can be just as bad of a thing as a good. Especially against the Saints, whom he hasn’t really played well against since 2015.
Andy: Yep, that’s what I like about the Saints this season. Need to run the ball? Ingram or Kamara. Need to pass the ball? Thomas. Need another target? Brees is smart enough to find one. Tricky defense that makes it look like you need to run, then gives you a look that makes you need to pass? Kamara and Ingram combined for 139 catches this season. Kamara actually had more yards as a receiver than as a rusher. Ted Ginn had 53 catches. This offense is as dangerous as it has ever been and it’s more diversified than ever too.
Tony: The one thing that might concern me most about New Orleans on the offensive side is their OL–especially their interior line, which didn’t grade out that well on PFF. When the Panthers beat the Vikings, one of the main reasons for their success was that the Vikings interior line was jumbled, due to the loss of Pat Elflein. If the Saints can’t block the Panthers interior DL, that could start to make things even more interesting.
Andy: Yeah, and while the Saints have MORE weapons than the Panthers do, it’s not like Cam Newton has never been there before. And he does have Greg Olsen. And Christian McCaffery. And Devin Funchess and Jonathan Stewart. Some of these guys are new to the playoffs, and some are perhaps past their prime, but they are all capable of stretching defenses and giving the Saints problems. I suspect the game ends up something like Saints 28, Panthers 20. But it should be a compelling game and the winner will actually be able to give its opponent next week a ballgame too, which is more than can be said for this weekend’s AFC contenders.
Tony: I’ll go with a final score of 31-27 in this one…I’m just not real sure who to pick as the winner. Just to keep things interesting, I guess I’ll go with the Panthers.
Tennessee Titans at Kansas City Chiefs – Saturday, January 6th, 2018 – 3:35PM kickoff
Tony: This might be the biggest mismatch of the first round of the playoffs. The Chiefs have had stretches of looking unbeatable and stretches of looking incapable, but there wasn’t any point in the season that I looked at the Titans and thought “That’s a playoff team.”
Andy: I suppose if anyone in this mediocre AFC field is going to disrupt the predestined Patriots-Steelers AFC Championship game, it’s going to be the Chiefs. The rest of the field is pretty mediocre in comparison. I will be picking the Chiefs. But your assessment assumes that the unbeatable Chiefs show up. If the incapable Chiefs resurface Saturday, Tennessee has a shot. DeMarco Murray is unlikely to play, giving the superior back, Derrick Henry, a chance to get the lion’s share of the carries against a deficient Kansas City defense. And, while he’s regressed this year, it’s not like Marcus Mariota hasn’t performed on the big stage before.
Tony: The same deficient defense that gave up 13-13-15 in the last three games of the season that mattered? They’re not the best defense in the league, but in Week 15 they held Phillip Rivers to 227-1-3, and Melvin Gordon to just 78 yards rushing–an offensive combination that I think most would rather have today then Mariota-Henry. Meanwhile, the Titans have a tough run defense (like the Chiefs), but the Chiefs can attack through the air with Travis Kelce, Kareem Hunt and Tyreek Hill, who I don’t think the Titans have an answer for. On the Titans side, other than Delanie Walker, I’m not sure I could name the Titans leading receiver.
Andy: Oh, I’m not saying I think the Titans are going to win – maybe not even keep it close. I was just stating that the Chiefs, statistically, have a lacking defense and that Tennessee *could* take advantage of it. That said, I think it’s the Chiefs game to lose.
Tony: I think they win big: Chiefs 27, Titans 13
Andy: Chiefs 30, Titans 17
Buffalo Bills at Jacksonville Jaguars – Sunday, January 7th, 2018 – 12:05 PM kickoff
Tony: The main reason I think the Chiefs/Titans matchup is the biggest mismatch of the postseason is more because I’m not willing to say that I think the Jaguars will clean up against the Bills, which seems to be the leading pick. Like the Titans, the Bills never looked like a playoff team this year–particularly with the Nathan Peterman experiment. But the Jaguars are a young team, that has also had its fair share of rough games. Their lack of playoff experience–and lack of a playoff atmosphere (where there will reportedly be a lot of Buffalo fans making the trek to Florida) could make it a more interesting game than most predict.
Andy: I agree, this is easily the worst match-up of the postseason, with one team in because it’s young and talented, but not consistently good yet and another that is in because, by rule, the AFC is required to field six playoff teams. I think this could be an ugly, low-scoring game that puts people to sleep. I’ll probably spend a good chunk of the game working. Jacksonville’s defense should remain great, especially if LeSean McCoy is limited or out. But I’m surprised at the spread in this one, given that both teams have question marks at QB and on offense as a whole.
Tony: The Jaguars defense definitely should win them this game–especially with the presence of veteran All-Pro Calais Campbell. But Blake Bortles alone makes them a hard team to put that much faith in. He was great when he was holding a lead this season, but unlike most seasons, when he excelled in garbage time, he was terrible this season when trailing–so if the Bills can figure out how to jump out to an early lead, it could spell doom for the Jags.
Andy: It could. But how do you figure Buffalo is going to get out to a lead? They won four out of nine games down the stretch coming in. Three of the four wins were against Miami twice and Indianapolis. The pass game is bad. The run game is going to be bad if McCoy can’t play. If I was betting this game, I’d be taking the under rather than betting on the spread.
Tony: Early pick 6 by the Bills defense? They aren’t a great unit, but they did score three defensive touchdowns this year, and Bortles did throw 5 of his 13 interceptions in the last two weeks of the season. And as great as the Jags defense is, they gave up 44 points to the San Francisco 49ers in Week 16, including 130 yards and 3 TDs on the ground, and over 100 yards to the combination of Kyle Juszczyk and George Kittle. Like you with the Titans, I’m not going to go out on a limb and predict a Bills win–I just don’t think it’s the laugher that most outside of Buffalo seem to expect.
Andy: Jaguars 16, Bills 3
Tony: I’ve got Jags 17, Bills 13.
Thoughts? Comments? Think we’re idiots? Let us know in the comments below.
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