DFS: Week 5, 2020

DFS: Week 5, 2020

Tony got his win during Week 3, then managed to shut himself out Week 4 — somehow in editing his lineup, he managed to not technically file a lineup … but the contest moved forward, so he lost his wager. However, we figured out his point total from Week 4 manually and … he would have lost anyway — albeit close, 123.08-120.18. Another 30 yards would have given him a win.

Andy’s still got the lead for the season, but the gap tightened considerably.

Week 4 Season Total points
Andy 123.08 0-1 541.06
Tony 120.18 1-3 521.40

Tony

QB – Russell Wilson vs Min – $8,300 – I have a sneaky suspicion that we may have some overlap in our lineups this week …

RB – James Robinson @ Hou – $6,900 – Sacrificing a little bit at RB this week … (more…)

DFS: Week 5, 2020

DFS: Week 1, 2020

One area of fantasy football … perhaps the only area … that we have not completely been obsessed with in recent years is DFS. Neither of us would claim to be particularly good at it – for the most part we’re kind of winging it. But at various levels it only makes sense that this become the next avenue we attempt to figure out. We’ve decided to start by staging a weekly contest. Values from Fanball.com.

If you are so inclined, leave your own lineups or feedback on our lineups in the comments section. We’re looking for any tips we can find in order to improve.

Andy:

I’ve messed around with DFS over the years, but had limited success. Stack these guys, stack games, balance the roster, studs and duds. Sleeper plays. It kind of makes my head spin sometimes. I initially looked at building around Joe Burrow and the Bengals against San Diego, but … he’s not played an NFL game before. I guess in tournaments that might make a bit more sense, but as I understand it, in a head-to-head match-up, the smart play is a safer play? So, here’s what I ended up with.

QB – Russell Wilson @ Atlanta ($7,700) – The Seahawks go on the road, but the Falcons haven’t been an intimidating opponent the last few years. Part of me wanted to go Joe Burrow here, but Wilson, while more expensive, feels safer here.

RB – Jonathan Taylor @ Jacksonville ($6,500) – The more I read about Taylor, the more I think it’s not going to be long where he’s available at this price. The Jaguars are terrible – really not even trying to win this year. Colts fans will get a glimpse early on why they took the Wisconsin back.

RB – Dalvin Cook vs Green Bay ($8,400) – Cook had a massive game at Lambeau Field in 2019, rushing for 154 yards and a score while catching three passes for 37 yards. Cook missed the game at U.S. Bank Stadium. He gets a shot this weekend to make up for the (terrible) pass interference call against him in that earlier contest that cost Minnesota a comeback win.

WR – DK Metcalf @ Atlanta ($6,900) – I am huge on Metcalf this season. He’s built like a WR1 and I think he takes on that role, starting this week against the Falcons.

WR – Davante Adams @ Minnesota ($7,700) – Aaron Rodgers targeted Adams 25 times across two games last season against Minnesota. Adams produced 20 catches and 222 yards in those contests. The Vikings pretty much revamped the CB room over the offseason. And GB did not go out and get a significant upgrade at the WR2 position. Adams, if he survives the season, may average 10 or more targets weekly. And the odds are at least one of his catches this week goes for a score.

WR/TE – Cooper Kupp vs Dallas ($7,200) – Jared Goff’s favorite target.

TE – Drew Sample vs LA Chargers ($3,000) – I thought about going George Kittle here against Arizona, which has been historically putrid against TEs in recent years. But Kittle has been banged up and I ultimately decided to go the sleeper route here. The Chargers’ pass defense is good, but less unpredictable with Derwin James out. Joe Burrow will likely target Tyler Boyd in the slot and his TEs in the seam.

Flex – Zach Moss vs NY Jets ($4,800) – Sounds like Moss is going to be a significant player at the goal line and in the passing game. That’ll give him a solid opportunity to contribute beyond his pricetag.

Colts Defense @Jacksonville ($2,800) – I’m streaming the Colts in a lot of fantasy leagues this week. I’m surprised that against such a hideous roster like the Jaguars that the underrated Colts could be gotten this cheaply.

Tony:

There’s all kinds of websites that you can use to find the “value plays” for DFS, but since I all but gave up on DFS since reading about automated submissions & people developing algorithms to try and game the system, I don’t follow them. I’m purely a play-by-the-seat-of-my-pants DFS player … which is why I cashed out my one account last year and haven’t looked back.  But I’ll give this a try, and see if I can make some low stakes money this year … and maybe get back into it if I can.

QB – Ben Roethlisberger @ NY Giants ($6,800) – Obviously there are QB that I expect to have better opening weeks, but trying to avoid having too much cap space invested in the QB, and at $6800 with a matchup against a questionable NYG defense, I’ll take it.

RB – David Johnson @ Kansas City ($6,700)  – I’ve liked him as a value play ever since the trade went down, and I think Bill O’Brien will be out to show people why he made the deal week 1.  It may still lead to him being the first coach fired this year, but he’ll give DJ every chance to make him look like a genius.

RB – Jordan Howard @ New England ($5,300) – Another guy I’ve added a fair amount in dynasty leagues this year, I do worry that in some games they will go with the hot hand, but at $5,300, with what I’ve got in mind down the line … good value.

WR – DJ Moore vs Las Vegas Raiders ($7,300) – This is where going light at RB starts to help out—he’s not projected as a top 10 WR this week, but once CMC has chewed up the Raiders defense in the running/short yardage game, DJ will produce down the field.

WR – AJ Brown @ Denver ($7,100) – The Titans will pick up where they left off in 2019 … grind it out with Derrick Henry, and get the ball to AJ Brown.

WR/TE – Bryan Edwards @ Carolina ($4,100) – One of my last two picks, once I realized where my budget was coming in for the rest of the team, I wanted to find a bargain-bin player that I think could surprise week one — and Edwards could end up being the WR1 in Las Vegas this year.

TE – Haydon Hurst vs Seattle, ($4,900) – This is the pick that really set my surprise (even to myself) FLEX play in motion—grabbing Kittle (against the defense that gave up the most fantasy points to TE last year) was intriguing, but at $7500 (and with the Cards having improved), why blow the budget? And grabbing Andrews for $6600 against the defense that gave up the second most points to TE makes some sense too … but what about a sub $5k guy that is facing the team that gave up the third fewest points to TE? The Seahawks may have improved, but Jamaal Adams is more of a box player than a TE shutdown guy and Matt Ryan proved how much he loves a good TE last year. How much will he love a potentially great one this year?

FLEX – Christian McCaffrey vs Las Vegas ($10,000) – I realized I’ve got a lot going on this game, but once I realized I had $14100 left to fill my last two spots, it made too much sense to grab the top overall player.

Colts Defense @ Jacksonville ($2,800) – If I was sure their defense would be better, I’d grab Buffalo for $2,500 against the Jets—but the Colts are a solid defense, playing a team that just waived their starting RB and starting a late round, second-year QB that they didn’t even bother to get a competitor (or mentor) for in the offseason. I hope Minshew has a great season, just for the story of it, but I’m not counting on it.

Slow Your Roll on Saquon: Why Mortgaging the Future Doesn’t Make Sense

Slow Your Roll on Saquon: Why Mortgaging the Future Doesn’t Make Sense

Saquon Barkley finds open space and run for a touchdown against Ohio State. Saturday, October 28, 2017. Special to the Reading Eagle: Chris Sponagle

Most logical dynasty fantasy football players have had Saquon Barkley on their radar for some time, and have had him locked in at 1.01 for 2018 rookie drafts since early in his junior season at Penn State. And if we are nothing else, we’d like to think we are logical dynasty fantasy football players–Barkley would be our first pick overall as well (if we had the 1.01 in any of our leagues…we should have, but we chose unwisely when we traded away a first last season, and ended up keeping 1.02 instead of 1.01).

However, we’ve seen some absolutely crazy proposals and deals reported on social media for the 1.01 pick, for the right to take Barkley–deals including LeVeon Bell, Todd Gurley, and sometimes more–to get a guy who won’t have his first NFL carry for the New York Giants for another 4+ months.

And if you look at his college numbers, it just doesn’t add up.

Yes, Saquon Barkley had 3,843 rushing yards in his rushing career, more than Leonard Fournette or Todd Gurley, and just behind Ezekiel Elliott, the last three big name running backs taken first overall in fantasy drafts.

But when you look deeper, there are some concerns there.

First, he got his 3,843 yards in 38 career games, and 671 total carries–3 more games than Zeke, and 6 more than Fournette, and 8 more than Gurley. He also had 671 carries in his career, meaning his yards per carry was nearly a full half yard behind the next lowest on the list (Fournette).

Second, he only managed 15 total 100+ yard rushing games in his career–and had a yards per carry of 7.72 in those 15 games, while only achieving 4.02 yards per carry in his non-100+ yard games. Of the backs we’ve looked at, only Fournette had a lower yards per carry average in his sub-100 yard rushing games (3.84), although Fournette also had 19 of his 32 career games eclipsing the 100-yard mark (and had a couple of brutal games against Alabama in there).

Finally, not an original take, but look at how Barkley did against some questionable competition, even in his junior season–10 carries for 47 yards against Georgia State, 20 for 56 against Indiana, and 14 for 35 yards against Rutgers. That’s the 4-8 Rutgers team that gave up 182 rushing yards per game. Yes, Penn State won the game 35-6, and Barkley only had 14 carries–but against a team like Rutgers, you should be seeing 14-120-3.

Some will clamor that Barkley’s receiving prowess is why he’s worth the fuss–but he also only had 4 career game with 6 or more catches.

Others will point to his combine measureables–which were definitely impressive. But your going to let the underwear olympics cause you to part with a proven running back who still has a lot of tread on the tires (and possibly additional draft capital) to take a chance on Barkley?  Especially with a questionable quarterback and offensive line in New York?

I’ll sit back and collect that draft capital all day long.

2V’s Conference Championship Fantasy Football Rankings

2V’s Conference Championship Fantasy Football Rankings

It’s the last week of multi-game NFL weekends for six-plus months, so fantasy football fans need to enjoy it, savor it, and drink it all in so it can tide you over through the offseason. I’d say the “enjoying” part would be tricky from a fantasy perspective given the defensive pedigrees of the remaining teams, but if the Jags and Steelers can both go over the Vegas total in the same game and the Vikings can exorcise 50 years of demons in 14 glorious seconds… hey, then just about anything can happen. Here’s a rundown of this week’s fantasy options as you tweak your playoff fantasy rosters and set your DFS lineups for the Conference Championships.

Photo by Keith Allison

QUARTERBACKS
Choose your narrative: Tom Brady and three bums, the 2015 Rams quarterback depth chart meeting in the NFC title game… they’re all there. Blake Bortles has the best matchup on paper, but in a battle of wits between Bortles and Bill Belichick I know where I’m pushing my chips. Brady has seen (and conquered) elite defenses before, so he’s the obvious call. And in the “Fisher Bowl”, where 7 meets 9, final numbers might depend more on each team’s respective ground games and pass protection.

1. Tom Brady, NE
2. Case Keenum, MIN
3. Blake Bortles, JAC
4. Nick Foles, PHI

RUNNING BACKS
The Patriots’ array of pass-catching running backs will be heavily employed this week against Jacksonville’s stout pass defense, but touches will depend heavily on Rex Burkhead’s availability. The Jags’ preference will be to run Leonard Fournette heavily, but the combination of Belichick schemes, game script and his health status make him a bit of a risky play. The Vikings only split their touches two ways against a strong Philly D, while the Eagles trisect (or worse) their backfield. It’ll be a week for playing hunches based on how you think the games will flow.

1. Dion Lewis, NE
2. Leonard Fournette, JAC
3. Jerick McKinnon, MIN
4. James White, NE
5. Jay Ajayi, PHI
6. Latavius Murray, MIN
7. T.J. Yeldon, JAC
8. LeGarrette Blount, PHI
9. Chris Ivory, JAC
10. Corey Clement, PHI
11. Kenjon Barner, PHI
12. Rex Burkhead, NE

WIDE RECEIVERS
It’s tough to see Brandin Cooks having much success against the Jags’ elite cornerbacks, but it wouldn’t be surprising if Danny Amendola working inside and underneath racked up another double-digit catch outing. Even if Minnesota’s offensive line doesn’t give Case Keenum a ton of time, both Adam Thielen and Stefon Diggs are capable of turning short throws into big plays. Flip the script and Alshon Jeffery will have his hands full with Xavier Rhodes, but Nelson Agholor’s speed could prove problematic for Trae Waynes. I don’t anticipate Jacksonville asking Blake Bortles to win this one through the air, and even if catch-up necessitates throwing there’s hardly a reliable standout among the Jaguars’ receiving corps.

1. Adam Thielen, MIN
2. Stefon Diggs, MIN
3. Danny Amendola, NE
4. Marqise Lee, JAC
5. Brandin Cooks, NE
6. Alshon Jeffery, PHI
7. Chris Hogan, NE
8. Nelson Agholor, PHI
9. Keelan Cole, JAC
10. Jarius Wright, MIN
11. Allen Hurns, JAC
12. Torrey Smith, PHI
13. Dede Westbrook, JAC
14. Mack Hollins, PHI
15. Michael Floyd, MIN
16. Matthew Slater, NE

TIGHT ENDS
Last week Gronk scored 14.1 fantasy points (20.1 if you’re in full PPR mode); if you combine all of the remaining tight ends still alive in the playoffs, they totaled 10.6 points (21.2 PPR). Do with that information what you will.

1. Rob Gronkowski, NE
2. Zach Ertz, PHI
3. Kyle Rudolph, MIN
4. Trey Burton, PHI
5. Ben Koyack, JAC
6. Brent Celek, PHI
7. Jacob Hollister, NE
8. James O’Shaughnessy, JAC
9. Marcedes Lewis, JAC
10. David Morgan, MIN
11. Duane Allen, NE

DEFENSE/SPECIAL TEAMS
This doesn’t feel like a place to look for fantasy points. In the NFC you have to expect conservative game plans for the “backup” quarterbacks against their respective elite defenses. In the AFC, the Patriots field the least productive fantasy defense but they face Blake Bortles; conversely, Jacksonville throws its defense up against Tom Brady.

1. Patriots DST, NE
2. Vikings DST, MIN
3. Eagles DST, PHI
4. Jaguars DST, JAC

PLACEKICKERS
It’s relatively easy to place Gotkowski and Lambo; you don’t beat Tom Brady kicking field goals. With the NFC kickers it may boil down to which offense is more efficient in the red zone… and which kicker is more comfortable kicking outdoors.

1. Stephen Gostkowski, NE
2. Jake Elliott, PHI
3. Kai Forbath, MIN
4. Josh Lambo, JAC

Divisional Round DFS Value Plays

Divisional Round DFS Value Plays

Many football-watchers consider the Divisional playoff round to be the best weekend of the entire NFL season. Tough to argue, especially when you’re pitting the four best teams in the league against the four hottest teams, the ones who clicked at the right time and survived the Wild Card round. Know what makes the weekend even better? Winning your fantasy football league, and/or taking home a little extra coin with a successful DFS lineup.

Photo by Keith Allison

With that in mind, here are a few intriguing value plays you can sprinkle into your DFS lineup to help make room for the high-priced big guns.

Case Keenum, QB, MIN vs. Saints
The narrative on this one is the Vikings will grind out a win on the ground at home, riding their elite defense into the conference championship. But don’t be fooled by Keenum’s “just enough” numbers as Minnesota wrapped up the season. Keenum tossed multiple touchdowns in each of his three regular-season matchups with the NFC South—and he wasn’t even under center when Sam Bradford took the Saints for 346 and three in the season opener. The Vikings may grind, but with weapons like Adam Thielen, Stefon Diggs and Kyle Rudolph at his disposal Keenum will have every opportunity to put up helpful numbers. Still, only Draft Kings prices Keenum in the top half of Divisional round quarterbacks, meaning he’ll deliver those numbers at a discount of between $900 and $2900.

Leonard Fournette, RB, JAC @ Steelers
In the Steelers’ six games prior to Ryan Shazier’s injury no team rushed for more than 70 yards, backs averaged 3.3 yards per carry, and Pittsburgh surrendered only one RB rushing score. In the three games immediately after Shazier went down the Steelers served up 100-yard games to Alex Collins and Alfred Blue and allowed five running back rushing scores and 5.7 yards per carry. Fournette gouged the Steelers—with a healthy Shazier—for 28-181-2 earlier in the season; what do you think the Jaguars’ game plan will be in the rematch? There’s an easy 20-plus touches waiting for Fournette, against a defense that has struggled to stop the run in Shazier’s absence—more than enough to make Fournette’s price tag, fourth- or fifth-highest running back of the weekend depending on your DFS venue of choice, not just palatable but downright lineup-friendly.

Jerick McKinnon, RB, MIN vs. Saints
McKinnon and Latavius Murray have tag-teamed to replace dynamic rookie Dalvin Cook, who roasted the Saints for 137 yards from scrimmage in the season opener. And while Murray isn’t a bad value himself, with price tags ranging from $100 less to $500 more than McKinnon, the back affectionately known as “Jet” has a distinct leg up in any format awarding points for receptions. Since Cook went down in Week 4 McKinnon has seen five or more targets in six games, averaging 5.6 receptions and 51.1 yards while scoring twice in those half-dozen contests. Pass-catching backs hit the Saints in a soft spot; they’ve allowed six or more targets to running backs in four straight and six of the last seven games—including Christian McCaffrey’s 6-101-1 in the Wild Card round. The Saints have also surrendered a running back receiving touchdown in three of the last four games. Peg Murray as the goal-line guy and the Thielen/Diggs combo as the focal point of the passing game… but know that McKinnon has ample opportunity to return serious value.

Derrick Henry, RB, TEN @ Patriots
It’s worth mentioning that while Henry is the third-highest priced back on both DraftKings and Fantasy Draft, his $6700 price tag on FanDuel makes him just the ninth-most expensive runner for the weekend. With DeMarco Murray already ruled out, all of Tennessee’s backfield touches will funnel through Henry. Game script may dictate the Titans play catch-up, but at that price Henry is worth the risk—especially when you consider he has more receiving yards (101) in the past two weeks than in the previous 16 combined.

Danny Amendola, WR, NE vs. Titans
With only a one-catch cameo appearance in the past two-plus months it’s almost impossible to trust Chris Hogan with a lineup spot despite a price tag lower than between eight and 12 other wideouts. But you know Tom Brady is going to get his, and Rob Gronkowski can’t handle the entire receiving workload. With Adoree Jackson on Brandin Cooks, where will Tom turn? For a price somewhere between 17th (FanDuel) and 21st (DraftKings) among wideouts, roll the bones on Amendola. His production has been consistent with or without Hogan in the lineup; you know he’ll get you a handful of catches, and at those rock-bottom prices if he finds the end zone it’s all gravy.

Corey Davis, WR, TEN @ Patriots
If, as noted above, game script in the Titans-Patriots tilt forces Marcus Mariota to the air then grabbing Tennessee’s top target makes sense. In the Wild Card round that target was Davis, who splashed with 10 targets way back in Week 1 but was knocked off track by an injury and only lately has worked his way back to the top of the Titans’ receiver rotation. Davis posted a career-best 6-91 in the Week 16 loss to the Rams and paced Tennessee with seven targets (producing 4-35) in Kansas City last week. He’s still looking for his first pro touchdown, but with a price tag that lands him between the 18th and 21st receiver he’s a high-volume opportunity play as you build up your lineup elsewhere.

On FanDuel, however, teammate Eric Decker might actually be the better play. The veteran pass-catcher is $600 cheaper than Davis on that venue and considering he’s out-targeted the rookie 21-18 over the past three weeks and found the end zone last week against Kansas City he might be the more palatable play in that format.

Mohamed Sanu, WR, ATL @ Eagles
This feels like a good week to pay up at the receiver position—the value-priced suggestions above excepted, of course. But Sanu’s lineup-friendly $5800 price tag on FanDuel, 14th among wideouts, puts him squarely in play on that venue. Atlanta’s WR2 has five or more targets in seven straight games, including 19 over the Falcons’ last two must-win weeks; he also topped 70 yards in each of those two tilts. Sanu does most of his work out of the slot, which also bodes well as fellow slot receivers Doug Baldwin (5-84), Cooper Kupp (5-118-1) and Sterling Shepard (11-139-1) put up quality numbers in a similar spot. Sanu’s price tag gets a little less palatable at other venues, but if FanDuel is your site of choice he’s extremely tempting.

Zach Ertz, TE, PHI vs. Falcons
The price-setters are determined to make you pay up for Gronk; he’ll cost you $1300 to $2900 more than any other tight end. The bargain-basement alternative of paying half his price tag for an ancillary part of an offense like Austin Hooper, Jesse James or Marcedes Lewis, is far from appealing. Working the in between are Ertz, Delanie Walker and Kyle Rudolph, all within $1300 of each other on DraftKings and FanDuel; at an $1800 discount from Ertz and Walker, Rudy may be the better value on Fantasy Draft. But let’s stick with Ertz, who saw 23 targets from Nick Foles in his two full games after the Carson Wentz injury. Those targets marked Ertz’s busiest two-game stretch of the season and yielded 15-137-1. The Falcons haven’t allowed a 60-yard tight end since Charles Clay in Week 4, but they also haven’t seen much in the way of talent or volume; when those two factors combine, you get something like Jimmy Graham’s 7-59-1 on 11 targets. Given Ertz’s role as Foles’ favored target he’s a solid investment at a reasonable rate.

2V’s Divisional Round Fantasy Football Rankings

2V’s Divisional Round Fantasy Football Rankings

Entering the Divisional Round of the NFL Playoffs, it comes as no surprise that fantasy-friendly matchups are hard to come by; the adage “defense wins championships” still exists for a reason. Here’s a rundown of this week’s fantasy options as you tweak your playoff fantasy rosters and set your DFS lineups.

QUARTERBACKS
The most fantasy-friendly matchups belong to Marcus Mariota, Tom Brady and Case Keenum; clearly, one of these things is not like the other. Conversely, no team allowed fewer fantasy points to quarterbacks than the Vikings, but I’ll still take Drew Brees getting his in that environment over other the remaining alternatives.

1. Tom Brady, NE
2. Drew Brees, NO
3. Case Keenum, MIN
4. Ben Roethlisberger, PIT
5. Matt Ryan, ATL
6. Marcus Mariota, TEN
7. Nick Foles, PHI
8. Blake Bortles, JAC

RUNNING BACKS
The last time Le’Veon Bell faced Jacksonville he only saw 15 carries–but he also had 10 receptions; you know one way or another he’ll get his. Tougher to say that about the Saints’ dynamic duo of Alvin Kamara and Mark Ingram, as no team allowed fewer fantasy points to running backs than the Vikings (say, haven’t we heard something like that before?). You have to think Derrick Henry will be the weapon Bill Belichick decides to take away in the Titans/Patriots game, but New England may not have the personnel to do so. Unfortunately we saw little evidence that the Eagles would cover for Nick Foles by leaning more heavily on the ground game so it’s tough to project a feature-back workload for Jay Ajayi.

1. Le’Veon Bell, PIT
2. Leonard Fournette, JAC
3. Alvin Kamara, NO
4. Derrick Henry, TEN
5. Devonta Freeman, ATL
6. Dion Lewis, NE
7. Jerick McKinnon, MIN
8. Jay Ajayi, PHI
9. Mark Ingram, NO
10. Tevin Coleman, ATL
11. Latavius Murray, MIN
12. Rex Burkhead, NE
13. LeGarrette Blount, PHI
14. James White, NE
15. Chris Ivory, JAC
16. DeMarco Murray, TEN
17. Corey Clement, PHI
18. T.J. Yeldon, JAC
19. Stevan Ridley, PIT
20. Derrick Coleman, ATL
21. Kenjon Barner, PHI
22. Zach Line, NO
23. C.J. Ham, MIN
24. Tommy Bohanon, JAC

WIDE RECEIVERS
Antonio Brown at 100 percent makes him a lock for the top spot, even against the vaunted Jacksonville pass defense–you know, the one he took for 10-157 earlier in the season. On paper the Tennessee wide receivers have far and away the easiest fantasy matchup, but with no reliable go-to among their outside targets none crack the top 12.

1. Antonio Brown, PIT
2. Brandin Cooks, NE
3. Adam Thielen, MIN
4. Julio Jones, ATL
5. Michael Thomas, NO
6. Chris Hogan, NE
7. Stefon Diggs, MIN
8. Alshon Jeffery, PHI
9. Mohamed Sanu, ATL
10. Ted Ginn, NO
11. Nelson Agholor, PHI
12. Dede Westbrook, JAC
13. Corey Davis, TEN
14. JuJu Smith-Schuster, PIT
15. Danny Amendola, NE
16. Torrey Smith, PHI
17. Eric Decker, TEN
18. Marqise Lee, JAC
19. Brandon Coleman, NO
20. Martavis Bryant, PIT
21. Rishard Matthews, TEN
22. Allen Hurns, JAC
23. Justin Hardy, ATL
24. Jarius Wright, MIN
25. Keelan Cole, JAC
26. Nick Williams, ATL
27. Kenny Britt, NE
28. Taylor Gabriel, ATL
29. Jaydon Mickens, JAC
30. Willie Snead, NO
31. Andre Roberts, ATL
32. Phillip Dorsett, NE

TIGHT ENDS
Playoff teams tend to defend tight ends well; in fact, only one remaining team ranked in the top half of the league in fantasy points allowed to the position. Fortunately for Gronk, it was the Titans–as if he needs additional help.

1. Rob Gronkowski, NE
2. Zach Ertz, PHI
3. Delanie Walker, TEN
4. Kyle Rudolph, MIN
5. Austin Hooper, ATL
6. Jesse James, PIT
7. Marcedes Lewis, JAC
8. Josh Hill, NO
9. Trey Burton, PHI
10. Vance McDonald, PIT
11. Levine Toilolo, ATL
12. David Morgan, MIN
13. Jonnu Smith, TEN
14. Jacob Hollister, NE
15. Michael Hoomanawanui, NO
16. Ben Koyack, JAC

DEFENSE/SPECIAL TEAMS
Another reliable facet of playoff teams: they don’t give up much in the way of D/ST fantasy scoring. Again, only one team ranks outside the stingiest dozen clubs in that regard–and again it’s to the benefit of the Titans. Of course, the Nick Foles-led Eagles might be more prone to turnovers than the Carson Wentz-led version if Philly insists on having Foles throw 38 passes a game like he’s been doing.

1. Patriots DST, NE
2. Jaguars DST, JAC
3. Vikings DST, MIN
4. Steelers DST, PIT
5. Falcons DST, ATL
6. Eagles DST, PHI
7. Saints DST, NO
8. Titans DST, TEN

PLACEKICKERS
Yet again the most favorable fantasy matchup plays to the Patriots’ favor, as the Titans have allowed a point and a half more per game to opposing kickers than any other squad left in the postseason. After that, it comes down to which offenses are good enough to move the ball on these stout remaining defenses yet not quite able to punch it into the end zone. When you’re counting by threes instead of ones, that’s when the kicker points start adding up.

1. Stephen Gostkowski, NE
2. Kai Forbath, MIN
3. Will Lutz, NO
4. Matt Bryant, ATL
5. Jake Elliott, PHI
6. Chris Boswell, PIT
7. Josh Lambo, JAC
8. Ryan Succop, TEN