Bet the Mortgage: Week 13, 2019

by Tony & Andy | Nov 26, 2019 | 2019 season, NFL Gambling

This season of actually riding along well with Vegas continues. Andy and Tony combined for a sub-.500 record last week, but both hit the big ones to leave with a small profit.

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Bet the Mortgage: Week 12, 2019

by Tony & Andy | Nov 22, 2019 | 2019 season, NFL Gambling

Damn, if there were ever a year to be spending the football season in Las Vegas …

Certainly not going to get too heady about this, but both of us are rolling in it, at least so far. Andy’s on a 6-1-1 roll since going 0-4 three weeks ago. Tony’s mostly plugging along at 2-2, but is winning more big ones than he’s losing.

And for the bets…

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Bet the Mortgage: Week 11, 2019

by Tony & Andy | Nov 14, 2019 | 2019 season, NFL Gambling

Both Andy and Tony rebounded from hideous week nine performances to show nice returns in week 10. Tony split his bets, but again proved true the mantra that you don’t have to win all your bets, just the right ones. Both nailed the Ravens’ big win, Tony with his biggest outlay of the year, and they both predicted the Seahawks’ Monday night triumph. But… can they follow it up?

And here we go again …

Andy: (more…)

Alternative picks: Week 11, 2019

by Tony & Andy | Nov 14, 2019 | 2019 season, NFL Gambling

Well, that was a cute little rally while it lasted. After falling behind over the course of several weeks, Tony had rallied the last three to pull within four heading into week 10. That ended last week when he managed to get zero of the seven games he picked right.

Think about that.

Anyone can miss a game here and there. That happens all the time. But to pick Every. Single. Game. Wrong. In this contest … that’s damn impressive. It’s a feat I’m guessing neither of us will ever duplicate.

Anyway, here are the standings.

And here are our alternative picks for week 11.

1) Andy: 49ers over Cardinals – Order has been restored to the pool standings, despite the chaos and disorder seen in the NFL last week. The pendulum will swing back toward chalk this week and, despite getting knocked off by the Seahawks on Monday night, the 49ers will be part of that order in week 11.

2) Tony: Bills over Dolphins – The Dolphins have back to back wins, which may effectively squeeze them out of the top couple of picks. But they’ll get back on track this week.

3) Tony: Raiders over Bengals – I’m shocked that the Raiders are playing somewhat competent football. And competent is good enough to beat the Bengals.

4) Andy: Cowboys over Lions – From the sounds of it, Matt Stafford is going to miss at least one more game. Even Dallas and its questionable late-game play-calling can’t lose to this version of Detroit-minus-Stafford.

5) Tony: Saints over Buccaneers – Yes, the Saints lost to the Falcons, and the Bucs have been playing better. But until the Saints make losing games they should win a trend (and fans start calling for Teddy Bridgewater to replace Drew Brees), you have to go Saints.

6) Andy: Vikings over Broncos – I thought about picking this game first, but Tony’s aversion to picking Vikings’ games made me think I might be able to wait a couple rounds. I like that because this feels a bit like a trap game, but Minnesota is better than Denver and should win this game.

7) Tony: Panthers over Falcons – Yes, the Falcons beat the Saints, and the Panthers didn’t look great against the Packers. But until the Falcons make winning games they shouldn’t a trend, you have to go Panthers.

8) Andy: Patriots over Eagles – New England has been stewing about the loss to Baltimore for a couple weeks now. And Philadelphia didn’t figure out how to play defense in a week either. The Patriots will get healthy against the Eagles.

9) Tony: Steelers over Browns – Don’t look now, but the Steelers have quietly made their way into the playoff picture.  Cleveland too, if they can just leapfrog 7 teams ahead of them…like the hapless Broncos.

10) Andy: Ravens over Texans – Houston is down Watt. Ravens playing really well. Not a lot I’m confident in the rest of the way.

11) Tony: Jets over Washington – I realize the Jets are only 2-7 on the year, but they just beat one rookie QB when he threw for 4 TDs and had Saquon Barkley on the team. So, beating a rookie QB that might not throw for 4 TD passes the rest of the season with Derrious Guice should be a walk in the park.

12) Andy: Jaguars over Colts – When is Guice back? That Jets/Washington game is an ugly one. Actually, so is this one. Indy has a choice – gimpy Jacoby Brissett or bad Brian Hoyer. Or … give in to the crowd’s calls for Smokin’ Chad Kelly. Meanwhile the Jaguars get Nick Foles back. He may be rusty but give me what Jacksonville’s got over that mess in Indy, maybe not any day, but at least this one.

13) Tony: Chiefs over Chargers – Guice will be back for the first half of the first quarter on Sunday, most likely, before seeing his shadow and retreating for six more weeks on IR. Meanwhile…how did we miss this game earlier?  A likely angry Chiefs team, with a QB that will light things up, going to visit a team that plays better when they’re actually on the road, not just playing in their temporary home where the only people that want to be there less than the players is the team’s supposed fans?

14) Andy: Bears over Rams – Have you seen how the Chiefs have been playing? It doesn’t matter how angry they are when they can’t stop anyone from anything. Kind of like the two teams in this game can’t do anything themselves. Two of the league’s biggest disappointments matching up in a game featuring two of last year’s head coaching darlings, both of whom have hit the skids this year. Mitch Trubisky isn’t good, but you know who’s statistically even worse? Jared Goff. In their last 16 starts, Goff has thrown more TDs (23 to 19), but Trubisky has him in TD-to-INT ratio (23 to 19) and QB rating (89.4 to 85). … Ok. I’d rather have Goff, but these two represent the future of quarterbacking int he NFL.

It’s been a rough couple weeks in this segment, but it seems Tony has bottomed out. He had a five-game lead in straight-up picks heading into week 10. He didn’t lose the lead, but he lost any cushion he had. Every season we see some weeks with weird results. That was bigly true last week.

Here are the standings:

And, perhaps against better judgment, we try again.